This is my personal opinion obviously but I was never a big fan of buying stocks because I don't trust that the companies report the earnings honestly and therefore give shareholders their fair cut. The only time I have bought or would buy stocks again is if it's in a match situation or dividends are paid out. By match situation I mean through like an employer where every dollar contributed gets matched into your account. Doesn't even have to be dollar for dollar. 50c for every dollar would still be good free money and the way I see it that should more than compensate for that skimming off the top the companies do in their accounting. I know that might seem cynical but it's how I see it.
Maybe PCGS or someone shold have like 10 indices....you could have 1 for Saints...1 for Morgans...1 for SLQ's....1 for Draped Busts...etc. Then you could have an equal-weighted or price-weighted average of all 10 indices into a whole encompassing index, sort of like the PCGS 3000 claims to be. An index should be representative...but it also must not be unwieldly. If the PCGS 3000 has dozens of different coin types, that's too many. Maybe put the lower-priced collecting stuff (pennies, nickles, etc.) in it's own index, just like small companies go in the Russell 2000 and not the DJIA or S&P 500.
Yeah but... My main concern would be this would further the myth dealers and the TPGs propagate about coins being investments. EVEN IF your coins increase in value, you have the expense of storing then off those years and risk of loss, then take a 20% haircut to sell them at a major auction house if you want to realize market value, or take a bigger hit to sell to a dealer. Equivalent to me would be a stock that pays negative dividends every year, then costs you 20% and 4 months to liquidate. I wouldn't suggest that stock to anyone. Dealers and TPG have always wanted to continue this myth to get collectors to spend more money than they can afford on their hobby, so they spin this line that it is a valid investment. IMHO, only ever spend hobby entertainment money on coins.
I don't know that they say they should be that. Certainly I rarely if ever see anybody -- even great collectors -- say that in the Message Boards. It's a hobby and to me, it is a last-resort sale if you need cash in an emergency but that is FAR DIFFERENT than an investment or even an Emergency Fund. We may have negative dividends soon to match negative rates !! No dealers I know say that, here or at the shows I have gone too. And I haven't seen any TPG stuff saying it. Maybe they have but caveat emptor. Yup, aside from a few times where a bubble was forming and you got in early, coins and/or bullion are NOT long-term appreciation vehicles.
You could and that would be better than the debacle that is there now, but still not very helpful overall. Coins aren't something that lend themselves to indexes besides bullion. I've heard TONSSSSSSSSS of bullion sellers say things along those lines like gold and silver will only go up, I'm doing you a favor even selling this etc.
My stocks are really just in my mutual funds 401K. 3 weeks ago I shifted my mix into 65% fixed income up from just 30%. With my company - they match 50% up to a certain cap. The way I look at it is I make a great return with that - and just want to focus on that match and not focus too much on the market 6-12 months. More worried about my job and what to do if I get laid off in the next 3 months.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but somebody tried this years ago. I think what they proved is that coins are not an investment.
I agree they're not an investment, I'm just talking about something that measures the various coin sub-indices correctly. The PCGS 3000 is like the Wilshire 5000, mixed in with bond and precious metals indices, too. It's too broad.
I am probably as big of a silver bug as you will find, and I also own stocks. Not as much as metals, but as an employed worker I let the employer contributions ride. Within that I hold 1/3 S&P, 1/3 bear market fund, and 1/3 gold miners. One of those ought to come out ahead, but I don't count on any of that, because the financial system is so highly leveraged that counter party risk is a real concern. My stack is my real retirement plan. If you're asking whether buying stocks right now is a good idea, I would say only if you think the economy can recover from money printing. Sure, it's better than holding cash while it inflates away, but I don't think that money printing solves anything. We'll probably see new nominal highs in the stock market at some point while a weak dollar buys less than it ever did where any profit taking gets you a high number that doesn't have any purchasing power. For purchasing power you need gold, and where gold goes silver eventually follows. If you're asking how to balance your allocations, the way I do it is everything I can afford to lose goes into silver, everything I might need to spend in the next few months is in cash and/or the bank, the rest goes to debt paydown and home, and any left I can be more liberal with. As for selling, the question is what will you transfer the funds to? You'd better have conviction or you run the risk of selling again and losing more.
What would "long-haul bear fund" even mean? A fund that's betting on a bear market longer than the longest one on record (just under 3 years, starting the Great Depression)? Sure, unprecedented events do happen -- but placing a really large bet on one in particular, unless you have insider info, seems like a bad idea.
Adam, Great question, and your age has to play a part of the answer. You have the future in your favor. The stock market is a long term investment and should be thought of in those terms. It will go up and down over the short term but has always gone up over the long term and better then PM's which are more short term investments. PM's can and should be part of a long term strategy, but growth will typically be slower then stocks. Wish I had invested when I was 12. The DOW was in the mid $800's. Today, $22,000's. PM's are a good part of the mix to help stabilize your portfolio during volatile times like these. Side story. I had an opportunity to buy an IPO in the mid 70's. The opportunity came via my girlfriends father, who was part of an investment group/club at this work. Anyway long story short, because I lacked a future vision and the funds, I missed a fantastic opportunity to buy 100 shares, for about $2.50/share. Oh, by the way, the IPO was for a small startup company making a new product for the automation business. You might know the name..... Intel. Think what that would be worth today. As of 12/31/2019, my investment (had I made it) would be worth over $544,000.00.
There are all sorts of inverse ETFs that do things such as go up when the market goes down and vice versa. Most of them carry the warning that only skilled investors should buy them — and they aren’t intended to be held for long periods.
Hi Adam, I'm 75 and just purchased $30K into Mutual Fund stocks. I agree w/ most of the CT-ers above. Let 'em ride & stay healthy. A knight that sez 'NIEH', J.T.