US Coin Market Stagnant

Discussion in 'US Coins Forum' started by Derek2200, Nov 8, 2019.

  1. geekpryde

    geekpryde Husband and Father Moderator

    Here's Doug cutting right to the chase again. :D

    Back when I was actively buying coins, it always bothered me when I checked a cert, saw PCGS guide price, then a few inches lower, previous auction(s) for that exact coin, and then with another click, auctions of other examples of that coin type, and none of them jived with the other. I mean, it's all staring a user right in the face, plenty of data, and yet, most people don't look any further than the price guide price.

    I did then, and will continue to think of PCGS price guide a High Retail Price. Full MSRP if you will. Sort of the highest of the high anyone should pay for a generic example of that coin, and only when sitting down in a swanky dealer store, sipping an iced tea and getting a back rub at the same time, while the dealer strokes your ego. :pompous:

    Like Doug said, actual completed auction results is the single best (only?) real method we have. Auction data is abundant, easily accessible, free, and of high quality. Why would anyone NOT use it? Of course, since every coin is it's own special snow-flake, you have to price that in up or down to what we find with auction data.

    Like my post about CAC, PCGS price guide still has it's place in my opinion. It's a "guide", gives you a general idea of the MSRP of a coin to the layman. Is it a $10 coin, $100 coin, $1000 coin.... So, I still like having the tool in my toolbag, but for the dedicated collector, the CT members of the world, the "advanced hobbyist", there are better tools to reach for.
     
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  3. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    Many people struggle with that aspect
     
  4. geekpryde

    geekpryde Husband and Father Moderator

    I know very little about the world coin market, so I don't have an opinion about why some US collectors transitioned to world coins, but you do realize Doug is a Sith Lord, right? He turned to the Dark Side long ago, and way before it was cool. He collected and recommends World coins often in posts here on CT.
    You may already know that, but I wanted to point it out in case you didn't know, or for others that read through the conversation in this thread. He wouldn't disagree with you about the vast universe of world coins compared to US, or the value for the money on the dark side. Knowing this, it may change how you interpret his replies or what stock you place in his comments regarding cause and effect. He is an OG Sith Lord. :blackalien:

    I even one time told him he reminded me of Snoke. :D

    latest.png
     
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  5. GSDykes

    GSDykes Well-Known Member

    Thanks for the graph GDJMSP! The graph correlates well with the price of Au, and Ag up to a point. It seems to me that IF our (US) economy grows, and folks spend, and have more leisure time and some extra cash that the market will grow. At the moment chaos ensues due to political rhetoric. Also it seems more collectors are emerging from India. At heart I think is the degradation of our coinage, boring designs, flat strikes, cheap coatings, cheap cores. I like Mexico's bi-metallics with Ag cores! Also this seems to be a good time to buy.
     
    GoldFinger1969 likes this.
  6. Derek2200

    Derek2200 Well-Known Member

    CAC coins for many issues have their own bid in the sheet which while higher can vary vs the normal non CAC bid. This sets them aside as a separate pricing class. Their Retail MV is based on the sheet which is reported in the CAC market report.

    I have bought and sold CAC coins some moved quickly some not. I buy them when the price, potential, and demand fits my business model.

    There is no substitute on knowing how to grade and look at coins.

    in my CDN app I can refer to CPG (Retail MV), greysheet and blue sheet bid, plus auction history. I use this as a guideline in bidding on, buying, and pricing US material.

    CAC stickers A and B coins not C (JA podcast). Many A coins can be exceptionally PQ and will trade higher.
     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2019
    GoldFinger1969 likes this.
  7. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Hmmmm - how far back shall we go ? :) To be quite honest, it occurred before CT existed, but not too long before. And my efforts to win others over to the Dark Side, those go back a long ways as well. As do my successes in that endeavor -
    https://www.cointalk.com/threads/did-i-do-any-good-on-this-box-of-coins.2941/#post-20849

    And the phrase you'll see there - another one down, and another one down .....another one bites the dust !! - was oft repeated ;) Right on up to more modern times -
    https://www.cointalk.com/threads/ar...he-ancient-fellows.267171/page-3#post-2210708

    And now I'm gonna share a real secret - the true origins of the Like button :jawdrop: :wideyed: :eek: - that is also tied to that oft repeated phrase.
    https://www.cointalk.com/threads/latest-coin-from-the-darkside.5195/#post-39054

    Ya see what I do to myself at times ! :( :oops: :sorry:

    We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming :D
     
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  8. Just sold a mini hoard of CC gsa dollars,prices are very soft for common date but solid for better date-condition pieces
     
  9. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    In those plastic GSA slabs, I take it ? Were they graded ?

    Where did you sell them ?
     
  10. CoinCatMan

    CoinCatMan New Member

    Hi folks,

    I have a weird roundabout way of getting into the coin industry that I thought I would share and give some perspective from a millennial point of view to this conversation.

    First off, I created my first website at a very young age and actually was on a "forum owner message board" with the owner of this very website when I was 13. At the time, coins did not seem cool or appealing and they seemed very overpriced. I actually did check out this site way back then, and remember scrolling through the photos. I was young and did not understand the industry.

    Flash back to now and I am a tech industry millennial in my late 20s. I did not buy my first coin until I bought a slabbed PCGS 1795 plain edge as a gift for my girlfriend lsat year who collected pennies growing up. Pricey gift, but worth all the pennies (pun intended). It's a cool gift since collectible type gifts are so foreign to us millennial now (we are taught not to own a car, but to uber -- not to own a house, but to rent)

    Once the slabbed coin arrived, I thought it was really cool. But it wasn't until about 6 months ago that I saw some YouTube videos of Silver Stackers talking about ASE and saw some slabs - which reminded me of the gift I gave my girlfriend. Then, the recommended playlist showed "The Coin Geek" who is a coinshop owner in Tucson I believe discussing coins.

    After watching some more videos and really diving in I really started looking into the market more. I have never visited a coin shop and still haven't to this day. I have never been a coin show meet up. All of my transactions have taken place on dealer sites and eBay. I have bought over 1,000 slabbed coins in the last 6 months.

    Why? Because the prices are damn cheap. There has almost NEVER been a better time to buy in my lifetime. I have a decent stock/brokerage portfolio, but I balance my portfolio with coins. They are quite fluid. I can get a 2,300 mintage proof 1888 coin for like $300 on eBay right now. Meanwhile, 2019 W Reverse Proof ASE is going for $3,000 - insanity.

    There are some really good deals to be had on the older stuff, from my viewpoint. Last thought is, my generation understands how like every system is so vulnerable to getting hacked. I constantly get noticed that my information was exposed, my account was hacked, etc. In this world of hacking, having physical possession of assets with some of my net worth is quite enticing - especially since coinage is so fluid now with the advent of eBay.

    Hopefully this millennial's perspective was helpful. I'm going to continue buying heavily, slabbed coins, over the next 6 months. And hoping to learn a lot more as well. I would love to go to some coin shows or hang out at a LCS, but unfortunately my schedule does not permit this. One day hopefully!

    One more thing to add is how YouTube is helping really complex industries and topics thrive. Off Grid Living is HUGE on YouTube. There is so much to learn about it. Coins are QUITE complex for newbies, but newer folks such as The Coin Geek on youtube are making it easier to understand - which will ultimately drive more folks into this industry - guarantee it.
     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2019
  11. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    CCM, good post and I agree there are bargains. But coins have only their metallic content as intrinsic value so they can get cheaper-and-cheaper which makes them not worthy of an investment so much as a piece of art.

    But you probably knew that. :D
     
  12. micbraun

    micbraun coindiccted

    Huh? So you’re watching YouTube for educational purposes, you’re trying to invest in coins and you’re buying like 3-5 coins a day? Did I get that right?
     
  13. CoinCatMan

    CoinCatMan New Member

    Thanks for the replies guys! The hobby is changing. I realize from reading that I collect a bit different from all of you - but that’s fine! I collect moderns, older coins, bullion, lots of things. Whatever makes you enjoy the hobby! Excited to see where we go in the next 10-30 years! Don’t want to derail this conversation too much just wanted to share that I think YouTube will play a bigger and bigger role in education of the hobby.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2019
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  14. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    I agree, there's lots of good stuff on YouTube.

    Do you have an interest in any PARTICULAR coins ? Judging by the volume of your purchases, it seems whatever moves you you will buy.
     
  15. CoinCatMan

    CoinCatMan New Member

    Morgans have been the most captivating so far. Still so much to read up on.
     
  16. mynamespat

    mynamespat Well-Known Member

    You've been collecting for ~6months? You are buying 150 coins/month at ~$300/coin "because the prices are damn cheap"? Your main source of information is youtube?

    I don't want to discourage you from collecting, but you may want to slow down a little. This is sounding like a recipe for disaster unless you are a coin collector savant.
     
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  17. Derek2200

    Derek2200 Well-Known Member

    At least it’s better to buy around the bottom.
     
  18. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    "Buying around the bottom" implies that you know when prices are going to start going up again.

    You don't.
     
    micbraun likes this.
  19. CoinCatMan

    CoinCatMan New Member

    Everyone has a different budget, lifestyle, and priorities. D L Hansen from what I can read is not very liked by the collecting community because “he is filling holes and not as focused on quality”. Everyone has an opinion many of which is used to justify their own individual style. That’s fine! Yes, the prices make sense for me now and I’m having a great time building up my set and learning more about the coins and history in general. YouTube has been a great source in learning about the coin market and will be the primary way to learn about it from my perspective for the millennial generation.
     
  20. CoinCatMan

    CoinCatMan New Member

    I’m buying at the bottom from the time that I became an adult til present. It could go down further yes, but there hasn’t never been a better price for me to purchase coins at, for most coins. But yes, it could take a further swim!
     
  21. micbraun

    micbraun coindiccted

    Hey you don’t need a college degree in business nowadays, YouTube knows it all :)
     
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