"Population 1" Coin - What's It Mean?

I have a chance to buy a coin that is "Population 1".
Is this a rarity factor?
I know there is a number of rarity factor scales.
If this is one of them, what does it mean?
I can't find it with Google.

 

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It means it is the only one graded at whatever grade it is, by whatever tpg it is graded by.

 

Here's how I understand your answer.

It doesn't mean it's rare.
It just means that no other coin of that type has received that grade from that TPG.

A 2007 cent could be graded AG-3 and be a POP 1.

The coin in question is a 1909-S IHC graded PCGS MS66BN.

 

SKM is correct...and your assumption of his reply is correct. What coin is it??

Recently I purchased a $1 note that has a population of 11, there may be more out there some where, however, at this time there is only 11 known...same thing.

RickieB

 

The combination of age and relatively high grade may indicate a true "condition rarity", depending on which TPG slabbed it.

Generally when describing such a coin the TPG is named, and it is either called "Pop 1, none higher" or "Pop 1, # higher".

Before paying top dollar for it, besides seeing it and verifying that you agree with the grade, you may want to determine

1. The TPG
2. The number of higher graded coins by that TPG, and
3. The population for each of the top tier TPGs.

If it turns out to be SGS, then you know that a 66 is "Pop 1" only because most of them they have slabbed are graded MS70, or at least MS69.

 

In all candor, if you didn't know what that meant, you are probably much better off not buying the coin. Also, sellers frequently use low population numbers as an excuse to ask more for coins than they should.

In the particular case of a 1909-S Indian cent, the low population number is largely the result of the fact that most uncirculated examples of that date are "RB" (red-brown) or "RD"(red). And a "BN"(brown) one is typically worth less than either of those other color designations.

It's quite difficult to assess the value of such a coin, but here is my thinking, information I am using, analysis and (hopefully educated) guess. And it really is only a guess....

A PCGS MS66RB (which should be worth more than an MS66BN) sold in auction for $2990 in 2004.

An NGC MS65BN (which should be worth less than a PCGS MS66BN) sold for $1265 in 2006.

The PCGS price guide lists an MS65BN at $1400 and an MS66BN at $1750. The guide, like other guides, is often too high or too low, but it can still serve as a very useful resource.

My feeling is that the coin is worth in the $1700-$2100 range. If it's a nice coin and the price is below that range (and I'm betting it isn't), it's probably OK. If it's more than about $2300, I think it's probably too high.

So, what were you quoted?:whistle:

 

Another important point is . . . Don't read too much into population numbers.

The April 2007 PCGS Population Report shows that out of 1223 1971-D Kennedy Half Dollars graded only one graded VG-VF. Does that mean that 1971-D Kennedy Halves in VG-VF are rare? Not at all. It means that only one person paid PCGS to grade a common, low grade 1971-D Kenney half. (You know the grading fee exceeded the value of the coin by far.)

 

I don't collect IHCs. I just have several for my typeset.
What I'm also doing is picking up some of the keys and semi-keys from various sets.
I also bought a 1908-S from this dealer. It's a PCGS MS65RB.
This is my top dealer and we have a good history together.
What he sells me are coins that are top of the grade.

There are two coins are being offered:

1. A 1909-S graded PCGS MS66BN and a POP 1. Price = $4200

2. A 1909-S graded PCGS MS64RB. Price = $1700

Eventually he will find a 1877 IHC for me, probably a MS63RB.
He offered me a MS64RB but it was too rich for me.

 

Yep. In this case, there may be only one MS66BN... but there are several MS66RBs and MS66RDs at both top services. PCGS shows a MS67RD as well.

It seems they are reticent to give out MS66 unless the coin has exceptional color. Seems reasonable.

 

A population one (1) coin simply means 1 of a very few factors.
1) there is no other coin in the grade of the coin in question. There may be similar coins In higher or lower grades. But none in said grade; say, MS67... but... a "too pop" means non better. Only thing better us 'finest known', meaning this the highest grade available, none equal and none better. A "top pop" could have more than one coin say in MS67, but none better ans some equal. Again, top pop with none equal and none better is 'finest known'. Okay?

 

It means you can name your price. At the very least if they don’t like my price I quote them they can’t grief me over what somebody else has it for lol.

Pop 1 Coins thrilling to own. I have a World SilverCoin 1960 Morocco Silver Dirham PCGS 65 Pop 1/0 which is a pop one and top pop. Another is a Canada 1938 10c PCGS AU 50 pop of only 2 just 83 higher. Got it for $4 off eBay.

I have picked off a few similar world coins. Hobby within a hobby. Lots of fun and opportunity in world coins.

 

the PCGS guide for a 1909-S 66BN is $4000. It is a Pop 1 with 0 graded higher in BN. There are no auction figures on this coin shown.

There are 13 in MS65BN, guide is $2500 although the auction results show only one going for more than $2000 and that was in 2008. One was sold in July at Heritage for $1980.

 

I have always thought of “POP 1” as the highest graded coin of its kind that stands alone with no others in the same grade. I have not thought of it as a term for only piece in a middling grade where there are others that are graded higher.

But, yes, some coins have low populations because getting them graded makes no economic sense, like the Kennedy half dollar in VF that someone cited. Such pieces should not command a premium price.

 

As a person who owns few slabbed coins and has never considered sending one in I often wonder what the slab devotees could have bought with the money they have spent with TPGs. Anyone care to ball park their total personal cost? I can't call what they spent an investment since no one is willing to buy their coins for market price then add money for the slab costs. Their lost purchases are also a matter for their determination from their dream list of coins.

 

Nowadays the cost of slabbing is part of the cost of making the coin marketable. If you have quality U.S. coins and you sell them raw, you are going to leave a lot of money on the table. When I was dealer buying raw coins, I considered what the piece was worth. Then I had to subtract the certification and shipping costs, and add some more for the risk of not getting the grade that I thought the coin should get. Then I was down do the price I was willing to pay for the raw coin. The value of a raw coins DOES NOT equal the value of a certified coin for the date, mint, variety and state of preservation.

There are many collectors, myself included, who will not buy raw U.S. coins. Foreign and ancient coins are a different story, but for U.S. coins, certification is almost mandatory.