While approaching the last heavy hitter holes to fill in my 09-40 LWC folder I realized something that doesn't make much logical sense to me, so I figured I'd ask the neighborhood. I picked up a 31S in VG8-F12 range for 44 on the bay and was happy that I plugged the hole that cheap. Now that I'm pricing the first pages holes I found that the 14D is priced close to 50% more average cost of a 31S same grade. The 31S has 866k reported when the 14D has 1.2m reported... close to 50% more minted than the 31S. Does anyone know why the 14D would be more expensive?
It's counter-intuitive, isn't it? But by the same intuitive logic, a 1932 (9.1M) should be worth 3X a 1909 VDB (28M). Translated: I don't know why, exactly.
@eddiespin exactly! Without a cool story behind it I just can't see it. What makes it more sought after? It's not the first of the series minted in Denver, it's not much older than the second lowest minted in the series... did some big name vendor juice the price in a "special" and it stuck? Inquiring minds would like to know
Maybe there were more Lincoln collectors by the time the 31-S rolled out, so more of them were saved in better conditions? Or maybe word got out that the 31-S mintage was turning out low at the time, with the same result?
The why is actually simple. The 14 D was ignored when it came out. The mintage of 1,193,000 was nothing unusual, there were plenty of others with far smaller mintages. [Think many different Indian head cents.]. The 1931 S, with a mintage of 833,000 was thought to be a future rarity at the time. It was saved by the bag, and that is why even uncs are still reasonably priced.
To find an uncirculated roll of 31 S is much easier than locating a Mint roll of pre 1919 cents from any mint. I am not saying it is easy, but they are out there if you want to mortgage the kids
What it all comes down to is the fact that compared to survival, mintage means nothing. As an example: look into the story of the 1903-O Morgan.
@BooksB4Coins thank you for that! I enjoy learning backstories to certain coins as much as finding and buying them! The numismatic value may drive all, to a certain extent, but the history is what I enjoy the most. @eddiespin ha glad someone else enjoys it!
A while back I asked almost the same question. Why is 1909S VDB more expensive than 1909S? By my reasoning the 09-S should be more than the 09-S VDB. Why not?
The 09S VDB is 4 times rarer by mintage numbers. However, more S VDB coins were saved in mint state than the 09S' . I have roll searched Lincoln Cents since 1965. I have found 1 09S VDB, but have 20 09S cents in my possession.
You're certainly welcome. It may have been a rather extreme example, yes, but I do think it makes the greater point quite well. Of course demand also plays a very large part in achievable prices/values, but far too many place too much weight into mintage when they really should be looking at survival and demand. The 03-O is also a good (yet still extreme) example of how things can change very quickly in this hobby.
