I watched this guy because of his video on the bitcoin fork. That seemed to make sense to me so I was flipping through his other videos and ran into this one. Nearly a half an hour so I know a lot of people won't want to take the time, but I'd like to know what people think about this; if the guy really has a grip on the amount of leverage - if he really on the level or another conspiracy guy? Especially the last part... if I understand what he is saying the markets are going to try to deleverage out of silver and the price will skyrocket. When someone starts talking like that I get really skeptical. But the guy also seems to make a lot of sense. I'm not going to run out and buy a lot of silver, but I have about 100 ounces of physical silver and knowing there is a chance the price will rise naturally peaks my interest. Thanks in advance for any input.
My buddy sets up at the monthly (Columbus, Ohio) coin show, and he deals only in bullion, no numismatic coins. This past Sunday, he said people were buying gold like crazy, but the only silver moving was circulated ungraded silver dollars, little or no interest in 90%. As I mentioned previously in another thread, I bought 4 rolls of dimes for 12x, lowest price in weeks. Hard to understand what's going on. I continue to believe that in an uptrend, if we have one, silver will double long before gold does, so that makes silver the best buy. This is looking at prices on a percentage basis. Any money I get from eBay sales, I continue to put into silver dimes or $5 gold commems, but only the lowest-priced, most boring ones that nobody particularly wants. I went through my listings today and lowered about 50 eBay prices, to juice my sales. Roughly 75% of my listings are stamps and postcards, not many coins left, and most of those are foreign minors. For the image-conscious, my scans are generally 2x2 or 3x3 image area, at 600dpi, then lightened up a click or two. ======= By the way, does anyone here know of a stamp website similar to Coin Talk? Forum style which permits sales, not just an auction like eBid or HipStamps. And I know about StampBoards, in Australia. I like the exchange of information and experience (here) more than the selling of coins; I have only put up one or two items since rejoining months ago.
https://www.stampexchange.com/ Like antiquers.com, another board from the same Peter Davis and related to this one.
I've been paying very low premiums for silver right now too the last few weeks. Like below melt for junk 90 and $.60 over melt for a new tube of rounds. Don't know what has gotten in to the dealers but I am not complaining.
Some of his statistics are correct but I don't think much or any of his conclusions are. He assumes some sort of overall plan to everything that real life experience simply does not support. The bull run on silver in 2011 was just a typical bubble, like any before back to the South Seas Company and Tulipmania in Holland ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania ) in the 17th C. As soon as a few big dealers decide to take profits, the apparent unstoppable rise stops and slips back a bit, and there is a panic to get out as strong as the panic to get in. Think more of a huge flock of starlings in flight than any directed cunning scheme. His most serious fundamental error is to treat a day's trading volume as a sum of underlying assets, when in fact much is simply the same material being repeatedly traded over and over again. If a thousand ounce silver contract gets traded a hundred times in one day this is not creating 100,000 ounces of traded material, it is still a single thousand ounce contract. This is still pretty crazy, for every profit someone makes a loss and the house continues to make a steady mini-percentage on everything but it is no more sinister than the operation of any casino and any bunch of random betters. He has a valid point in warning that trade in derivatives can lead to some massive losses, we have 2008 as an example of that, but it's not organised or under the control of anyone, it is just people getting away with whatever they think they can get away with, as usual. The cause of the huge increase in what can only be called playing with money is the huge amount of excess money available in the world today. I know there are very many people in the world to whom an extra couple of dollars a day would make a real difference, and countries where the GNP is less than the paper wealth of some individuals but looking at developed countries like the USA and much of Europe, there is a serious oversupply of wealth and people have to find something to do with it. If you have assets of five million, not a remarkably high figure, you might consider personally that losing four million would be serious. It is not, you still have a hefty chunk of change and doing without the yacht and the country place are not real hardships as most of the world understands the term. On a smaller scale, in money terms, I'd be willing to bet that almost every member of Cointalk could lose a few thousand without it having any real impact on their life. Hanging on to your current car for an extra year does not count as 'real impact'. So, arguably far more money and assets around than people actually need. What happens is that they play with the excess, although if you call it investment it sounds less frivolous. People take their play seriously, even though they may call it playing the market, which is tantamount to giving your excess to someone else to play with. All this play money gets spun around and around, drawn out like candyfloss from a few grains of sugar, but it does not really matter. No one lives or dies by candyfloss starvation. To get back to the rather boring video, my opinion is that the maker takes both himself and his theories far to seriously, and in a search for reason in what is very much a chaotic system, tries to fix causes on specific people and elements of the system that are not really justified. How this all relates to bullion investing is insignificant. It is arguable that a steak in the hand is a lot more useful than ten vouchers entitling you to a free steak if you happen to be hungry and have no other food. It has happened time and again in history that precious metals have been the only reliable store of value in troubled times. I have a few kilos of silver lying around in case there is another bubble and I can make a substantial profit, but I am not really bothered what happens, it is all play money as far as my life is concerned and most of it is in the form of useful and decorative silver objects anyway. I think there is more wisdom in this video.
Don't know what has gotten in to the dealers but I am not complaining. They are either expecting a downturn and want to cash in or they are overextended. Straws in the wind, maybe? Sell, sell, sell, the sky is falling.
In the last month silver dropped $1.20 then recently rebounded a little. My theory is they just needed cash because no one was buying during the 2 1/2 weeks of silver dropping. It seemed every day it was going down $0.20-$0.30.
Bix Weir has been around for a long time. I used to read him on an occasional basis but his ideas just got too radical for me. Some of his facts seemed valid, some seemed to be hype. To be honest, I had forgotten about him and did not take the time to watch the video link you posted. I have since found people whom I find to be more useful to pay attention to, but mostly these days I just ignore the random fluctuations in the silver price and pick up a bit here and a bit there when I have few spare FRNs.
The thing to keep in mind is: if there were REAL silver market manipulation, someone would call their bluff. There are lots of really smart billionaires, with even smarter people working for them. If it were a blantant manipulation like PM "gurus" have said since at least the 1970's when I was reading it, a very smart, very rich person would press the issue and make another billion. Conspiracy theories may be fun to believe in, but in economics the major problem is there is always a bigger fish. If a bigger fish sees a real market manipulation, they will position themselves to profit, press the issue with their greater liquidity, and make money. ALL FIRMS want to make money, there cannot be a conspiracy that would stop another firm from profiting if they can. So, as soon as I hear "conspiracy theory" from a self proclaimed pm guru, I know he is a fraud. There are good, sound reasons to invest a portion of your portfolio in PM, but a "conspiracy" by "the man" is not one of them.
interesting. his first statement was that the markets are controlled by the government. I don't think that's the case. So everything after that is nonsense to me that is based on that. his 2nd slide stated "Proofs and Problem .. " as Afantiques states in his post above that he doesn't understand the concepts properly, which is a redundant problem of his. Proof? His simple statements he states is a Proof. Those are just statements to me, and not proof. I do agree that futures/options really mess up the market. But that's gambling for 'ya. He stated that the DTCC vaults being flooding then burnt them all .. blah blah blah. I find it ironic that in a DTCC statement they specifically reviewed this by stating ".. It is the largely irrelevant latter ... Note we did not use the word electronic because those are there and accounted for in numerous back up data sites, with full designation and attribution. In other words anyone who made a mountain out of this particular mole hill sadly has no idea how modern markets operate, since all that the DTCC needs to do to remedy the flooding damage is to notify transfer agents of this natural disaster, and then have duplicate stock certificates printed .. The company’s computer records are fully intact, including detailed inventory files of the contents of the vault. This effort is more of an administrative and logistical challenge than an economic issue" I find many of his stated facts are incorrect. I listened to the entire thing about 1.5x Did he really lay blame on the entire y2k thing on Alan Greenspan ?
Who goes on to youtube, finds a video by a random guy or company you've never heard of about a complex economic topic and says to themselves "I bet this nobody has an interesting perspective on this topic. I should waste my time watching it to become more misinformed."
Thank you posters. Instead of watching the video I can now watch something more enlightening like "Dukes of Hazard".
I don't care if you like reading my posts. I don't desire to be liked. I don't profess to have the answers, unlike the hucksters that people regularly quote and link to in this forum. I hope to point out those frauds and imbeciles so other posters and lurkers won't buy into their nonsense. Again, whether I am liked or disliked because of it, I couldn't care less.
You mean all this while you've been a mortal just like the rest of us? How are you going to save us with that?
This. The only real manipulation is people who are trying to sell metals making people believe that the market is manipulated.
I don't know what you mean by huckster, I only posted to get conversation on the topic. I understood there would be people who ridiculed me; par for the course... but to lump me in with a huckster I think is untoward. As to the guy in the video I posted, I said before the reason I ended up watching his thoughts was because I watched a video he did on the Bitcoin split which I thought was informing. I also qualified my thoughts on his silver video saying that anytime someone talks about a skyrocketing increase in price my caution radar goes up. I was just asking for the thoughts of others, not trying to sell anything.
