Gold is Taking a Beating Today!

I have one silver dollar and a gram of gold.

 

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LOL, yuppers, me the same!
‘Cept, I just have a silver quarter and silver dime pulled from circulation from my younger years. Inherited a silver dollar from my grandfather.

 

I had a few grams of gold, but I sold them years back. And, yes, I reported the profit and paid taxes on it. (Bought 'em under melt, then sold them at full melt. When spot was under $2K. )

 

I believe anoynmity is granted and they are asking only about any increase/decrease...not the amounts.

Not much different than CTOs being asked about their technology CAPX.

 

That chart was from the World Gold Council's Central Bank Survey:

https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/central-bank-gold-reserves-survey-2026

Lots of good stuff there, click around.

 

Great read @GoldFinger1969 looks like there,s a pretty large surplus, maybe the reason that the demand is low? but still waiting to pull that trigger when it gets under 4K, its trying..LOL

 

Here's the key link:

https://www.gold.org/goldhub/resear...ves-survey-2026/perspectives-on-gold-reserves

 

Under 4K !! will this spur buying ?

 

In fact I do think I’ll add a bit. I’m sure the market will heat back up very soon.

 

And I did make good on my threat to add a tad.

 

Big report on China and Gold.....key influence of their purchases (1/3rd of gold flows) going forward....must-reading it appears....reading it now, but here's a nice 1-page summary:

 

So not seeing much on global conflict affecting the GOLD price, kind of surprised that the price hasent shot through the roof by now ! especially with the war with Iran expanding.

 

You can line up 5 things bullish for gold...and if just 1 central bank sells, the price goes down 15-20%.

So don't try to game this....you/we can't.

 

Somebody had posted a piece by Mike Dimond not long ago. His premise was that gold would dramatically rise when the conflict ends. I cannot remember his rationale for that but if anyone is worth listening to I would think it would be him.

 

I am not at all surprised.

I have been going to, and doing bidness in China since the late-80’s. I have watched their society change and grow over the years. The West has underestimated them for some time. I presented to my then Senior Management back in the early 90’s, that China will be a world market power to reckon with. This “breaking news” that BMO posted, is probably old and stale. The West is just beginning to wake up that the center of the gold market, as well as several other markets, has shifted to the Global South. Additionally, as of the 24th, China’s Gold market is not dealing in paper or derivative, rather in physical deliveries. They are targeting the West’s paper markets…

Knowing how the Chinese work and think, the numbers that is being reported, or estimated, is probly well understated. And, they have methodically and quietly been moving to dominate this market… after all Gold IS the real currency for what, 5000 years?

I have travelled all over China, as well as Southeast Asia. Their culture is immersed in Gold.

The economic Center of the Gold market is shifting from London-NY paper markets to Physical Gold in the HK-Shanghai market.

 

That's the thing....lots of people in January would have said that with gold at $5,500....and then you add in a Gulf War conflict.....$100 oil.....and rising inflation...that we would probably be closer to $7,000 today. Right ?

But instead we are at $4,000 and hoping Chinese buying holds us here and then lifts us (read the report).

 

Maybe...but the paper markets gravitate towards the physical and vice-versa.

Also...chasing gold is fool's gold (pun intended ). You don't make your society wealthy by accumulating a metal...not now....not in the 1500's mercantilistic trading societies. Real rises in living standards and GDP come from sustained economic growth, not from being lucky to have built your country on top of a couple of giant gold mines.

China is poised to lose 30% of its labor force the next 25 years. They have large structural problems embedded in their economy. Politically, they have certain advantages with a 1-party country but it also breeds more problems than they solve. So taking over and dominating gold trading, even if it happens, doesn't seem like a panacea. They are about to fall into The Middle Income Trap that hit South Korea and Japan and led to a couple of lost decades.

Nobody is sending their kids to Bejing University anytime soon.

 

Have you ever been there?

 

No...but I know they have done a great job lifting the country and hundreds of millions out of subsistence poverty.

But the low-hanging fruit has been picked....now the going gets tough, as Japan and South Korea learned the hard way.

Real GDP growth is ultimately population (labor force) growth + productivity. They face some steep headwinds with a 30% drop in labor force population.

The CCP was a plus at many steps the last 35 years...will they continue to be going forward ? I have my doubts, as do many China Watchers.