Gold was down over $300 intra-night but opened down much less in New York Monday Morning. Stronger dollar and potential for rising rates not helping. Doesn't affect me, I can still look at my SG DE and my LH DE on my desk.
That's why all this crap from other countries like France -- Triffin's Dilemna, Exorbitant Privilege, etc. -- was alway BS. Any other country could in theory be the global reserve currency (well, they could ask for it -- whether their capital markets are deep enough is another question )...but they didn't. Why ? Because they want to export and run trade SURPLUSES and capital account DEFICITS....and they want to accumulate gold (under Bretton Wooods) not bleed gold for decades. You think deGaulle would have the Franc be the global reserve currency and kill his export sector....have the Bank of France lose gold....etc. ? They want the benefits of being a global reserve currency....without being willing to pay the price.
A couple of Jeff's were on CNBC today.... Jeff deGraaf, outstanding technical analyst, said that gold is probably a bit oversold short-term but sentiment is nowhere near where you get a major bounce and can say that the lows are in. Oversold bounce coming but more downside likely. Jeff Gundlach, The Bond King @ DoubleLine, is cool towards gold after being bullish from $2,000 on up. Just too much too soon....gold isn't his specialty but he knows a bubble-like move when he sees it. Surprised silver wasn't down today....
If this Iran thing ever totally settles down it will be interesting to see how gold does....but it continues to base in the $4,500 - $5,000 range. I don't believe if that was a top (or close to the top @ $5,600) that we would have months to get out. The market is RARELY that accomodating. We need months or another year to base before we can move higher. Needed 3 years to digest a doubling from $1,100 to $2,000.....this move was bigger, 150%, and also in 3 years.
Iran needs to be treated like a medieval fortress under seige. Nothing leaves or comes in, the Regime must be starved into collapse, no oil exports/ no money/ society will elapse into chaos/ regime takedown. If this horrible bunch of wackos stay in power, who knows if Putin would give them a few nukes to lob at Israel? Plus Strait of Hormuz must be in US control.