Premium on common double eagles

Premiums percentage-wise will RISE as gold falls...they will FALL as gold RISES.

We know this in real-time because all those MS-65 common Saints that sold for 20-25% premiums a few years ago are basically selling for bullion or melt today.

Look at the 2 MS-63 coins I bought at FUN 2026, an 1898-S Libety Head CAC and an 1923 Saint CAC. Both purchased basically for spot bullion. A few years ago they would have cost me 10-15% premiums, maybe more.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

I have looked at limited data, so perhaps it's best that I shut my trap (lesson in humility). I'm going by Indian Head gold coins on eBay. I noticed that as the gold price spiked, the sellers were not very quick to adjust the premiums along with the gold price, so there were deals I took advantage of for a short time that disappeared. So in this case premiums appear to have risen in total amount and percentage amount for this narrow market on eBay. Now, the prices appear to have slightly ticked up, adjusting for the gold price rising, as well as perhaps gauging collector demand. I don't want to make this academic, but perhaps retail - who hold pre-1933 gold - sold while the market was hot initially, and maybe that selling has abated.

 

Nah, I like the give and take. Don't take it too seriously.

Good observations....with Eagles, you are talking about sub-1 ounce fractionals and the premiums there might be "stickier" because the total price is still more affordable than a falling premium on a Double Eagle.

Everything I have read says that premiums on pre-1933 bullion gold (NOT numismatics) should be less than the equivalent counterpart moderns because liquidity and demand are LESS for pre-1933.

So if you just want gold on the cheap...won't need to sell it....and like the numismatic/historical angle....pre-1933 is the place to shop !

Plausible.....keep in mind that elasticities are lower for fractional ounce coins because they are more affordable with a 1-oz now costing $5,000 plus.

If a Half-Eagle should sell for a 10% premium to gold ($1,250 + 10%), even if the seller asks 20% it's more affordable than a Double Eagle and probably even an Eagle. Same formula for modern 1-ouncers vs. modern fractionals. I once paid a 40% premium on a 1/20th ounce Panda !!!

Same math might work with Eagles vs. Double Eagles (or any other 1-ounce modern gold coins).

 

According to ChatGPT, in 2014 an Indian Head Quarter Eagle MS62 sold for roughly $400-500. Now you can pick them up for about two times (2x) that price - and not long ago they were selling for under $800. So they have gone up roughly two times while the gold price has quadrupled. I think this is a bargain, and it gives buyers right now some downside protection.

I think the pre-1933 numismatics are the place to go because they were exempt from EO 6102 - the confiscation order of FDR. Numismatics have legal protections that bullion coins do not according to historical case law.

 

I have some interesting stuff on EO 6102 and the whole enforcement/confiscation angle involving gold, FDR, etc.

Will either create a new Thread or post it in one where there is such talk.

Breaking....

 

And, of course, AGEs were not exempt.

I'm not entirely sure how this played out at the time. I mean, all pre-1933 US gold is numismatic now, but at the time, most of it wasn't. It was just another form of circulating cash, right?

I could claim that I'm hanging onto random ASEs and AGEs for "numismatic interest", but if something like that executive order did come down, and they started coming after individuals suspecting of hoarding, I'm not sure how things would unfold. How would you defend the idea that you're collecting as opposed to hoarding?

(For clarity, I'm deeply skeptical that "They" will ever Come For Our Gold And Silver. The amount of money "They" could get from personal bullion holdings is utterly trivial compared to the electronic fund flows that can be taxed or frozen.)

 

Please do! I am eager to have this fleshed out. I think this deserved its own thread.

 

See the 1944 Treasury Dept. Memo to the NYC Secret Service in the Coin Chat Thread.

 

There is also case law that deserves some analysis. There are so many angles to this topic.

 

We can talk about it in the 1944 Thread since this thread is mostly focused on premiums on common Saints/Liberty Heads in particular, and gold coins more generally.