How will Fighting in Iran affect Metals?

No political discussion here - don't want to get in trouble.

Just prognostication on bullion prices? How will they behave? Jump? Drop? How much?

Obviously, the strikes occured while the market was closed for the weekend, so we haven't seen their reaction yet.

 

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Time will tell on the PM's, I can't even begin to guess and so I don't make it political, I'm out.

 

Usually geopolitical uncertainty puts upward pressure on metals prices. That said, (I think) the market had already mostly priced in conflict with Iran. With silver's huge recent run up in price, I wouldn't want to stake my own money on any significant future gains.

 

my guess would be they go higher.

 

We 've been listening to this crap since 1979. I'm so sick of it, my nose hairs even get numb thinking about it.

Unless there's some ugly surprises it should already be factored in by now. Yeah, yeah 45+ years, that should be enough time.

There's already a rumor that the Ayatollah is dead.

 

I too think global uncertainty is currently reflected in PM costs. I would surmise that we will see no drastic difference come Monday morning when the markets wake up.

 

Friday’s price increase on the PM’s was of speculation due to the talks of a strike. No one expected the strikes to occur this quickly. The strikes occurred because of the weekend. It had nothing to do with the markets being closed. Iran was banking on other countries in the region to stand with them but recent strikes by Iran were condemned by those countries. Tomorrow night is when the overseas markets open for trading and I think the prices of gold and silver will go up sharply. Political uncertainty in the world will drive the metals higher.

 

That's a new one for me. I like it! Would you give me permission to start using that?

 

Gold up $100 and Silver up $9.00 since?

 

China is Hoading and no longer exporting silver. They are the world's largest refiner of the metal. Prices will do nothing but continue to climb.

 

That was on Friday.

 

I'm in the same boat. We might see a few dollars increase in silver and gold but I doubt anything huge. Although in the past a few dollars in silver would be huge, nowadays it isn't after what we have seen the last year.

 

I posted this in the bullion forum. Looked like they tried to load up for the expected onslaught and now incoming deliveries and/or excessive demand for physical instead of rolling over paper contracts is rapidly depleting the supply. (Compare spot prices in December 25 and Jan. 2026 with this chart.)

A few days ago they shut down for 90 minutes on an alleged "technical glitch" and 31800 contracts changed hands during that down time. It is theorized contracts were paid back in cash with a premium to satisfy them instead of supplying the silver but nobody really knows. Not normal and cannot continue on like this with current demand. This chart represents what is stored, not what's available for delivery.
As of Feb. 27th they have 86.13 million ounces available for delivery vs. March contract open interest of 366 million ounces. That's what would be needed to satisfy March contracts. What happens in April? May? Hopefully there are caravans of shipments hauling 1k oz bars there as we speak. My opinion: I don't think they're coming.

This market is a major factor that affects spot price on top of everything else going on. They were able to keep the game of musical chairs going when paper contracts were simply swapping out for renewed paper contracts but now physical delivery expectations have become unprecedented over the past year. The Shanghai chart looks the same.

 

Not sure it will immediately jump Monday. It may, but not for the reason you imply. I've been reading about a "witching hour", much like triple witching hours on options that's coming up in March. Banks trying to cover up silver short positions that new regulations have exposed, etc etc, ad nauseum. I say this because it's all financial journalism speculation. There were predictions silver could hit 300 plus this month, that was something out there back in December. I have no idea. Just pointing out that we are not operating under old rules and it has nothing to do with world uncertainty.

 

Price of precious metal prices jump - Russia and China profit. War keeps getting prolonged.

 

Buy the rumor, sell the news?