Silver Is On A Tear Today

If that comes to fruition, then something will be wrong economically or financially in the stock/bond markets.

I can't see a substitution effect not taking place at prices way lower for silver.

We'll see....

 

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5 years from now ?

Maybe gold and silver are both treading water....no great rise....no collapse.....so maybe gold is $4,500 to $6,000....and silver is $60 to $95.

 

I also wonder. Guess we'll find out as time moves on.

With the heighten price of gold I stopped buying more consistently a few years ago. I used to get the US MINT set but the last time I complained that my credit card was melting while entering it in the us mint website. I think that was the last time I bought directly from the Mint, opting for the secondary market instead.

And now silver pushing up. I'm worried when the central banks stop buying so much Gold & Silver and the market settles. Will prices float (or crash) back down and to what level.
So I'll buy a little here and there of mostly coins that I want, instead of AGEs for stacking. ASEs are still at a "okay" price but I'll only buy a couple instead of 7-10 at a time.

China blocked exports but they're still buying overseas metals so I wonder how much that is pressuring prices.

Silver right now is at $87.10

 

Of course not, but I was on this Board a lot on 2011 when people were making fun of me predicting it to be $20 again, (right @-jeffB ). It was "different this time". Any time someone tells me "its different this time" it makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up, but usually its not.

$7 to 10 halves is not bad, but I bought a lot of mine for $1.50 sir. I have been around this market a long time. No prediction is assured, @panzerman prediction is as valid as mine, I am just explaining why I think this way. I still haven't sold since all of my PM is still less than 10% of my portfolio, so I am not actively selling either.

 

The more time they spend at or above $5,000 and $75....the more they build a base for an assault higher.

 

Can you elaborate on this since Treasuries are seen as giving real negative yields? I'm genuinely curious about your take. Regarding Franklins, it's good to see I'm not the only one who's a fan of them in this thread. I don't think they will literally save me, but if the silver price skyrockets in the way the biggest bulls suggest, it seems having a few extra around won't hurt.

 

I got the direction right on gold (didn't really predict on silver) going back YEARS...if anything, I was too conservative. But I noted all the fundamentals were lining up and thought $3,000 by 2030 and $5,000 by 2035 were very doable. I later moved up the targets and raised 'em.

I may as well take a Victory Lap since I've been wrong on so many others.

In the old days....I'd open up an investment newsletter....you'd all subscribe....and I'd get everything WRONG for the next 5 years before shutting down !!

 

Treasury bonds in the 5-7 year duration range usually provide a nominal advantage over inflation, on the order of 2-3%.

But during the Great Bond Bear Market of 1946-81, they were called Certificates of Confiscation on Wall Street and were TERRIBLE investments up to 1980.

 

I like that but I don’t like the thought of what things will cost then.

 

I checked a few minutes ago and gold was less than a dollar under $5000 and silver was almost at $88. Both were up last night and today.

 

I don't think anyone can predict the future, because variables are always changing. What I do know is that 3 years ago a guy who is a stockbroker/investment analyst who understands the futures markets told me do not sell any gold or silver until around 2030. I don't remember what his reasoning was but he was spot on about the unprecedented rise in both precious metals. As long as silver is still being heavily used in industry, it will continue to rise until something else comes along to replace it's utility.

 

I'm looking at the indexes and gold is 5220 right now.

 

I think a base is at or very near to being set. Silver base maybe in the low eighties but it’s close.

 

With inflation at 2-3% likely 15% more then today. The metal prices reflect the high demand, tiny supply. Ditto for coins, classical types 670BC-1914, in high quality will go up 5-10+% each year. Again, I have 250+ coins in my collection, mostly MS, actual known ones are below 5-10, yet there are millions of collectors worldwide. US coins on otherhand are vastly overpriced compared with world stuff.

 

I am predicting that by next week a nice Juicey Burger and maybe a 50 dollar off 2026 ase will be in the mix!!

 

Just not a fan at these yields. I think other alternatives might take some demand, especially considering the issuances needed in the next 5-10 years. To issue them the Treasury would need to raise yields, lowering the value of an existing one if you own it. So, buying a long treasury right now I believe is somewhat risky in that regard. Like everything in economics endlessly debatable, just like PM predictions.

My overall bearish long term view of pm at these price levels is mainly from the fact of the huge price and demand push from copper. Most copper mines produce gold and silver, so I think the supply of both will go up pretty sharply the next 5-10 years,(maybe sooner), and that additional new supply will be bearish for a 10 year horizon IMHO. I have been around this game for over 40 years, and people who claim that they were "right" do so with no time horizon. In a fiat currency system prices will ALWAYS go up long term, but when is key. Someone saying I predicted $80 silver 15 years ago and doing so every year is not making a prediction, its a fact, but WHEN is the variable. I can comfortably predict $20 a pound copper too, but it might be 50 years, or 5, but it will happen someday. I can also predict a loaf of bread for $30 and a big mac for $50 with certainty if no timeframe is attached to it.