$6,000 GOLD guess the date and time ?

In 1980 inflation was running 12%....the dollar was in freefall.....people waited in line for 45 minutes to fill their tanks with gas....interest rates were 15% for a mortgage (if you could get one)....Iran was at war vs. Iraq....the USSR was at war in Afghanistan....Bretton Woods had fallen apart 7 years earlier....gold was up 10-fold in 6 years.....etc...etc...etc.

The more things change....

 

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With the 1980 and 2011 rises as an example, gold more or less held at about a 50-60% retracement of the non-bubble "spike" in each move.

So gold bottomed at $300'ish in the years after the 1979-80 peak...and bottomed at about $1,000 after the $1,800 peak in 2011.

If we ARE taking a long time out -- remains to be seen -- I would estimate support at $3,000 - $3,500 an ounce. The rise in gold was NOT as extreme from the recent launching point if that means anything to the TA folks. So maybe support is higher.

Gold only spent a week or so above $5,000 but has spent months above $4,000. We may find buyers at those levels since there was an equilibrium in that range.

 

Yeah. Been there, done that. Even got the Tshirt. It wasn’t a vacation…

But, am here, survived, and looking forward to another vacation!

 

For "us" coin collectors, low gold prices are great. Lets face it, if you have 10K gold, most coins would be very expensive. The true numismatic, high quality, less so, they are, were and always will be sought after and go above catalogue. Of course those modern 60s proof sets with 4 oz coins are down in price now. But again, if your not selling who cares? I remember paying 240US for a BU Peruvian AV 100 Soles 1951! Its gone up in value. But a classic FDC 1633 K-B AV Dukat Ferdinand II Holy Roman Empire (Hungary) hammered for 4100US in Warsaw Auction (I won it) in 2016.Years later a second one in MS sold for 24K EUROS Bratislava auction. So, "classic" gold is in high demand, no relation to precious metal prices.

 

At FUN 2020, I was able to buy 4 gold coins....at FUN 2026, just 2.

And one of those gold coins at FUN 2020 I paid DOUBLE the gold price in premium !!

 

I remember in 1980, I had just barely started my first job as an accountant, having graduated from college the year before. A guy I knew who worked in sales bought a house and no lie, he had an 18% mortgage. As you said, gas lines, gas shortages, times were nuts. Carter was not a strong leader. Nice guy, but no President.

 

Interesting insight. You may be on to something. It does seem like gold did not spend much time in the 3000s range. Eight months maybe? And then didnt return.
Its interesting to look back but also difficult to compare then to now as an apples to apples comparison. The difference being now that interest rates are never going to the levels they were back then. Not even remotely close. So that's not going to drive any prices back down.
There's larger population and industry pulling from the supply. The money printing is drastically higher than back then. That was a time when the World was happy to rely on the US dollar. It appears those days are gone and central banks are back to gathering gold. Neither political party in this country is capable of getting it back under control. The long term arrow is pointing up, regardless of the day to day minutia everybody wants to panic over.

Does anyone really think this new Fed chair is going to be a hawk on interest rates when it's the main reason Powell was getting replaced? I think he was a convenient scape goat for the shananigans that went on last Friday.

 

"Whip Inflation Now" and gas lines started well before his watch.

According to FRED's history, mortgage rates spiked to 16.4% very briefly in 1980, but didn't hit 18% until fall of 1981. I know you're always supposed to take credit for all the good stuff and blame all the bad stuff on the last guy, but.

 

It was 45 years ago, so let's say I was off a year. But the fact remains, it took several years to get through the Peanut Predicament and the Iranian Crisis. I definitely don't miss Billy Beer. And the 18% interest rate my friend had still stands.

 

Last week I kicked back in my recliner and started watching some old Miami Vice shows because I was sleepy. Was a trip back in time. That was a great series back in it's time. Mind you, I was young and NEVER saw the original releases because I was running the streets hard myself. The originals ran during prime time, around 9pm. No way I was sitting on the couch in my robe with a tub of popcorn then, I would binge watch them later on after the bars closed and I didn't close on a deal before closing time.