Gibson's Paradox isn't about Keynesianism. It was merely an observation that Keynes made. So he can't really make an observation untrue that literally happened. Even if his religion of insane money printing is what he'd rather hang his hat on.
Howdy folks, A couple of observations about the gold and silver markets and manipulation. Anyone and everyone that has any sort of major position in the market is going to attempt to move it in a direction that will benefit themselves. This is not a conspiracy - it's called normal human behavior. It's why markets work. Econ 101 - pig principle and self-interest. Think of it as the house advantage and live with it. Are folks that amass pm's investors or speculators? feh. They're both. Some modicum of pm holdings - say 3-10% of your wealth - I consider an investment in peace of mind. My grandkids have their bed buddies. My stash is mine. It's a protection against WTF happens. More than this is getting into speculation. The main difference, other than percentage of wealth, is that with speculation, you're betting the price will rise in order to make money. With your investment portion, you are not planning on any appreciation - just safety. As for deficit spending and Lord Keynes, when once asked about 'the future' if we indeed chose to run up deficits, he responded, 'in the future, we'll all be dead'. Does it work? Yes. Can it be abused? Of course. What the Fed and most of the worlds gov'ts are betting on is that folks continue to see value in the fiat currency. The problem they've had in recent years is the unfunded liability debt of over $100 trillion dollars. This is the aggregate of all the promises made - social security, pensions, various and sundry trust funds, interest on the national debt. Basically, there is no way they can pay this tab as it stands. That means they've got to raise taxes where it's politically possible, break promises and reduce benefits where it's politically possible and to halve the value of the dollar by QE-nth. And the trick is to do this without destroying the value of the dollar in the process. For us, we have to assign probabilities to the possibility of their success - or failure resulting in some sort of economic meltdown. Next assign the consequences of each result. From my perspective, the chances of a financial meltdown are less than 20% but the consequences so dire, a prudent person must protect themselves. To this end, I have a stash of pm's and a very diversified portfolio. I read a quote by the elder Rothschild that to protect yourself from economic calamities, you should have 1/3 of your wealth in securities, 1/3 in real estate and 1/3 in rare art. Do yourself a favor and run your numbers. First time I did I blew chunks on my monitor. and so it goes, peace, rono
Rono, you make a lot of sense of how to protect one's cents. Similarly, I like to take the ''4 seasons'' approach to investing. Each of the seasons (bull, bear, inflation, deflation,etc.) will dutifully arrive. But unlike the climate, they will appear in no sequential order nor for any predicable duration. Therefore, one must have a comfortable yet functional ''wardrobe'' to properly dress their portfolio regardless of the present day temperature/season b/c tomorrow could change on a disme. Therefore, with this approach, one cannot only survive but thrive in any hurricane, drought, blizzard or balmy day and not have to rely on the T.V. weather/financial news for direct guidance. So balance the RISK of the only 7 pieces of clothing you can have in your asset closet to meet your unique position in life...stocks, bonds, real estate, PM/collectibles, cash, commodities and of course, yourself, private enterprise! I wish you all abundance!
PMs markets are the same as all markets: More buying than selling: price goes up. More selling than buying: price goes down. Sometimes, I think that concept gets swept aside when talking about silver.
You are basically right, but I think the PM markets are probably more manipulated than some other mkts.
The only thing not considered in relation to stocks, is that those companies have revenue, expenses, they can go bankrupt and the stock then becomes worthless. Or it can go up based on revenue/profits, etc. PMs are based on something physical. Silver can be bought and sold AND USED in manufacturing in photovaltaic (though someone has a patent now with some other material), electronics, mirrors, jewelry, etc. Other than jewelry it's not easily transferred back to a material that can be bought/sold again. I look at the two as completely different types of "stocks" per say. I still don't understand how they are manipulated? Yes they have been in the past but how are they currently being manipulated ? Are they being kept high or low or just being manipulated by watching them ?
Looks like someone drove the price up. Must be a conspiracy. .. but this week we have speeches by the President to Congress, Fed Reserve / Yellen's and last weeks the FOMCs. I think the US Monetary's Policy is going to be the driver for a while.