Predictions for gold and silver prices?

I've only received/accepted one sale on a Certified XF Indian $2.5, the remainder are returned "unavailable"!

 

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Understood....what about modern fractional gold coins ?

 

I watch a couple of dealer websites for gold at spot deals and 1/4 ozt gold does get offered periodically though it's usually the US Mint's $5 commemorative coins and not Eagles or such. For a bullion collector like me, that's perfectly fine.

 

I tried posting a response that generally when trying to acquire up to/including $50 certified Gold Eagles, "the remainder are returned "unavailable"!"

The $2.50 Indian, yet unreceived coin, was acquired at a "bargain price" of ~$625, believed ~25% premium!

 

Commentary from Citibank on gold and silver:

 

You win some...

 

Rising silver price, so why are refiners telling dealers/retail that they'll get Spot Silver minus 10% (or $6 or whatever) ?

 

So when will hit $5,000.. I am thinking sooner then later

 

Oh the good old days ....

and what seems like a few months later ...

 

People with businesses on the line are increasingly concerned that it'll drop 10% in a day or two?

 

They have a massive stockpile/backlog of silver inventory ready for recycling. They have a limited capacity to refine it.

 

Makes sense, silver IS historically "spikey."

But if the current prices hold, that "I'm Not Gonna Get Burned" discount should disappear...I hope.

 

I agree but there are too many people that fear they will be burnt.

 

I suspect much of the anxiety surrounding the potential drop in silver prices has less to do with refining backlogs or the spectacular gain in 2025 silver prices, than it does the tremendous expense to hedge right now. And if you can't hedge, buying silver with no way to move it from the warehouse and into the market for months is a very risky proposition.

Volatility certainly plays a role in the higher cost to hedge, but so do lease rates. The severe physical shortage in London had driven lease rates much higher in October, which in turn made options much more expensive. That's all hypothetical now, because while there was a severe physical shortage in October, it eased precipitously shortly thereafter. But the actual lease rate here in December 2025 isn't published anywhere. You would need to be an expert in silver options, the beta of the option contract, and other nuances that only comes from years of participating in that market to know what's really going on.

In other words, there's no way for mere earthlings to know, and the guys who do know aren't sharing their knowledge with anyone else. Instead, we all get daily YouTube feeds from people pretending to be experts, with little actual insight into the inner workings of the market.

An interesting analysis from Twitter that suggest just how opaque the whole silver market is. It's difficult to identify what the driving force in the market is, and his suggestion that collateralized lending against precious metals has had an affect on prices makes a lot of sense, though there is little to suggest it is driving the spot price, but rather increasing the cost to lend metal for US dollars in the current market because of sanctions effecting access to the US dollar for countries like Russia or Iran.

https://x.com/izakaminska/status/1977999802785829119

 

The only offers/sales made recently were for 1/10oz. Gold Eagles @ spot on Craigslist, too return buyers!

 

And I remember as a YN looking mesmerized through the window of a coin dealer where a $20 Coronet sat with a $50 price tag attached. At the time I was making about $4/wk as a paperboy, so that was a lot of money!

 

To the moon!

 

I remember my LCS had a 1893-S Morgan Dollar for a little under $10.00. As as kid I thought who would pay $20 to get $1.00?

 

1902-S $20 in raw XF from the coin kiosk at the local mall (Yorktown - Lombard, Illinois) around mid-1985 for $472 at a time when gold was about $335 an ounce. Many years later it slabbed AU55. Eventually traded it along with $300 for a 1928 $20 in MS63 around 2014. Sold the Saint in 2025 for around $3,500 and you could still say I got killed on it, at least in inflation adjusted terms. Or not. A brand new Ford Thunderbird cost about $11,000 in 1985 or nearly 25 of the double-eagles. Today, can buy a new car for considerably less than 25 ounces of gold.

 

When purchasing I Feel the pain NUT... 21.00 PLUS DOLLARS FOR A HALF DOLLAR AT SPOT.... The cost average theory has slowed for me...