London running out of gold and silver?

Tweet includes video from CNBC TV18 (India) talking about #silversqueeze:

https://x.com/Sorenthek/status/1906311002422903061

 

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But Silver has lagged Gold during this move, right ?

Certainly no "squeeze" -- nothing like 1979-80, or even an out-of-nowhere 10% up move with gold flat.

 

See here:

 

It's an interesting thesis and you do have a decent/good understanding of how the silver/metals markets work with both futures, cash markets, etc. both in London and in NY.

However...

I tell my clients that if I can't explain why we hold a security or position within 30 seconds....explain how the portfolio is built within 30 seconds....they should fire me and never look back.

In the equivalent of 30 seconds....why is silver poised to make a dramatic up-move...or as you posted....likely to go up 10-fold in the blink of an eye ?

I'm bullish on silver, but not into conspiracy stuff unless FACTS back it up and I've seen tons of people claiming "Wall Street banks" or JP Morgan Chase are out to get them and it's total crappola.

I don't see anything like a Hunt Silver Short or even a Gamestop Short play here.

Tell me why I am wrong.

 

It's not going to go up 10x "in the blink of an eye". I never asserted that.

I posit that London/LBMA is running out of physical free float. When they do, COMEX shorts are going to get squeezed. I don't know when it will happen and I don't know how violent it will be. I just see it coming soon.

 

First Mint is producing 2,025 silver squares for tomorrow:



https://firstmint.com/products/silver-squeeze-cast-cube-2025

The order page is password protected - the offer is currently limited to folks in the X #silversqueeze community. I'm guessing the order page will be opened up to the public tomorrow or so, but I'm not sure on that. I ordered one tonight.

 

Maybe the COMEX shorts are hedged elsewhere ? Maybe it's banks or hedge funds or insurance companies with deep pockets ? Maybe they have off-setting OTC derivatives ? Maybe there are warehouses full of silver overseas (London?) ?

 

You didn't actually read all of my article, right?

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https://x.com/pmbug/status/1906691109352325279

 

Looks like the First Mint cubes might be sold out now. That was quick.

 

I did....and I will admit that trading and the mechanics of settlements are NOT my strong suit.

That's part of the problem though: I don't think it's as simple (in under 30 seconds !) as you claim it to be....there are MANY moving parts which can delay or mitigate the forces you cite which would lead to a big move up in silver.

I'm not saying for sure you are wrong....but you have to be RIGHT within a reasonable time period....you can't make a prediction like the gold and silver conspiracy nuts have said about "manipulated shorts" for decades and expect to be taken seriously, IMO.

Not saying you are "nuts", BTW. You get my picture, though.

If these forces regarding delivery are as pronounced as you say there are, we should see it materialize in a bit price rise/spike/short squeeze within __________ weeks/months. If it takes LONGER, then it's likely non-existent because I don't think anybody can pin-point an event in 2025 that will happen in 2026 or 2027 or 2028.

That's just luck or random happenstance.

 

The problem is opaque information. The LBMA publishes a single number for their vault holdings once a month. They have been caught lying about that number in the past. How much actual metal they have is an open question. Transparency on that number is needed to calculate/estimate a run rate (to predict a timeframe with any confidence).

What we know from the data is that the LBMA vaults are being drained. Gold is essentially empty (of free float). Silver looks to be empty (of free float) anywhere from yesterday (they are lying about their vault holdings) to a few months out (their number is correct and assuming the markets continue draining the vaults at the same rate as they have the last couple of months).

A second factor is whether/when COMEX longs demand delivery on their contracts. Per David Jensen's analysis of the COMEX short positions, the LBMA is already unable to cover COMEX short positions. The market could squeeze tomorrow on this point, or limp along on a slow bleed if just a small percentage of COMEX contracts demand delivery (status quo).