So.. what do you guys think... St Gaudens $20 common dates. as far as my research tells me... 10 year trading avg in ms63 about 38% over spot... right now they are trading at 11.25% over spot... with 60-80% being seen in the past when gold spikes... Thinking of picking up a few!
I have been wondering the same thing. I have been watching St Gaudens for a while now. When gold dropped under $1200 the prices did not really move down much. Now gold hit $1300 and the prices are still about the same. I was hoping for sub $1000 gold so I could buy a few but I'm starting to wonder how much they would move down if spot did go to $1000. I know from past auctions that in 2002-2003 St Gaudens were selling for around $400-500 on a regular basis. Maybe it would take a big drop to actually see lower prices.
I picked up a couple in the last few months. the premium to an Eagle or Buffalo seems low to me these days. i remember a couple of times in the last 6-7 years when it was a lot higher,near 50%. probably go there again. $10 Libertys too but in MS61-62.
They keep going lower... today trading 10.7% over spot... lowest in 5 years. MS63... ill make my mind up this weekend!
As the actual price of gold goes lower, past history and common sense would indicate that the premium would NOT narrow much more but likely increase. Of course, you'll be down alot more on the drop in gold. As a numismatic investment, I am not sure MS-63's are the best investment....HOWEVER....if you are buying them as a substitute for pure bullion coins then (accounting for the gold content differential) having the potential (sort of a free 'call' option) to have the premium drag the value of your coin up means you could reap a nice windfall. Here's a chart of Saint-Gaudens premiums going back decades....the lower the grade, the less of a numismatic premium and the more they trade like spot gold. You really need to see MS-65 levels to see premium takeoff in any future 'hot' market for Saints:
It takes years and/or decades to deflate a bubble...prices are sticky on the way down, even when they crash....the drop in gold prices and the drop in premiums since the late-1980's is probably close to an end but we may 'scrape the bottom' for a few more years.
I keep buying as I see good deals. The other day, a dealer offered to sell me MS62s for about $70 over spot. Didn't take him up on it, since I've been picking up MS63s for that price.
Slabbed. I had gone in to submit a few that I had, to PCGS. It was not a very smart move (considering the premiums) but I like my coins slabbed.
