So... gold at $1900

So you guys... lots of people investors/collectors in bullion and rarities looking at gold possible spiking here when the DOW reaches 18000 and flops/corrects itself...

where do you guys see the metals ending up? gold/silver? and what do you think it will do to the rarities market... which has been a little sluggish this year.

I expect to see bullion values initially plummet as big stock investors and paper traders are trying to cover losses... than I hope to see $1900-2300 gold and silver $30-35

On the rarities side we all know values of bullion dont really affect values in this market.... I do anticipate though as more and more are getting involved realizing the returns on some key coins, this is a great place for long term...

The main point for this thread is to get a general feel for the opinions out there. I think we are in a detrimental time period right now and something, something huge is building up big time!!! Maybe I'm just excited because I lost nothing in the big metals dips. As I wasnt in a position to hold/acquire... now... everything is on discount IMO

 

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I don't think we'll see any cross-over between stock investors and bullion investing, regardless of what the DOW does. At least we never have in the past no matter how volatile either has been.

 

Really.... I swore in 2008 after the huge correction then we saw gold/silver run up to all time highs... am I wrong? no direct correlation with the feds pumping the stock market... rallying that all over media... to switching the pump of gold and silver all over the media after the correction? I think they are doing the same thing... its all relative in my opinion... as soon the stock market crashes... I think we'll be seeing the fed promote the metals markets for sure...

 

Curious as to why you think there is a 'crash' in the stock market eminent at this level? I am sure there will be corrections, but many investors and funds got left behind a couple of years ago, as they had little faith in the Quantitative easing plan of the fed, that they will be ready to jump on any correction. They are cash heavy due to many world businesses and wealthy converting from their own currency to USD based stocks and bonds. Just in the last 3 months, the price of an ounce of gold in Russia went from 46,000 rubles to 65,000 rubles, almost 50% because gold is valued in USD. If they have the ability, they are pushing Rubles into other currency/ stocks.

 

PMs have been so exploitable in recent years based on the general public's nearly blind acceptance of them as safe havens in recent uncertain markets, but they have been priced so very high as dealers sold to the converts and fleeced the public who were buying them at near record levels at the precise time when metals were readily and abundantly available to meet demand, and while major investors were exiting PM positions for opportunities in the most liquid of markets, cash. The gold bugs gloated and bought it rather than waiting this wave out to buy in at more level (sane) prices. Most didn't have the patience to wait through the financial crisis to start buying.

Those (big) investors who held cash or sold their most valuable commodity assets (PMs) while stocks were soft in the last few years, have done better than most, or at least emerged in the best shape. Many reaped huge rewards by cashing out of PMs then and have already engulfed the advantages of stock positions in markets that most people don't trust and now still refuse to carry positions in.

With QE ending and all the hysteria and doom-speak crumbling under the false certainty of claims made by their austerity soothsayers, PMs are reverting back to their authentic levels and there is no evidence the calamities we were promised to come with the collapse of the US dollar have any evidence of befalling us, yet abundant supply in PMs still overly meets demand, demanded by many of whom are still hoovering up all they can get their hands on under the same fear and faith they drowned themselves in when the wave of crisis began.

The boat has sailed and many stackers are panning water as fast as they can to keep a heavily laden boat in PMs afloat. Many try to justify this with buying graded and limited edition bullion as collectibles, yet continue to pay significantly more for it than buying it without the trappings of plastic and labels. And the collectible coin market won't have any of it-- won't show support like it does with true numismatic rarities.

What I'm saying to the OP is that big stock investors and paper traders aren't trying to cover losses, they're already well beyond any they experienced and in their trading activities, well beyond the people still mired in the haze that the hysteria of the bull market left them in. Miners still aren't opening new or old mines to keep up with demand and allocations aren't a problem either.

Numismatic rarities have enjoyed a very strong trading environment. A lot of people who can invest in something, now have a lot of cash to buy fine coins! It's not to do with the commodities market, but rather effective marketing, a healthy auction venue and the quality of pieces that have become available on the market after many years in private collections or freed from foreign holdings being repatriated and offered for sale, demand in high grade pieces set by dealers bringing TPGs examples for reconsideration, and companies pleased to sell certification services which improve the grade of pieces and hence the marketability of pieces being made available to a market of such people with such serious money to purchase and to boast about and splurge their deep pockets on fine pieces.

Why do you think the stock market is going to crash? Does it not run in cycles anyway? It's bound to continue crashing and recovering, but why are you convinced that it will crash and metals will again be the sector to rebound or where others run to for shelter? It easily could be another sector that crashes next time, and a different area which experiences a boom in price and demand, not PMs. So, if it's in stocks, which so many physical PM converts remain entrenched in, who are unable and unwilling to take advantage of such stock market opportunity, with such risk and volatility, and are left with a worth-less stack and their cash tied up in heavy metals that not many others want, certainly not for the prices that will be asked above current market levels, how are they going to partake?... let alone fair?

There's no reason to hope for PMs to spike (rise) to such prices that they hardly made it to in recent years. Hoping for that will be a waste of precious time. After which, when the prices finally do reach those levels, a very poor return on investment.

 

One day some of you might actually understand gold, what it is and what it should be used for. One day...maybe

 

I have mixed feelings about AU and AG. If regulators leave them alone, metal prices will fluctuate with supply and demand, investor expectations, etc. But regulators can influence metal prices quickly and sharply by changing the reserve requirements for leveraged commodity investors (big boys with hundreds of millions in play).

Remember a few years back when Silver hit an inter-day high over $50? Over the two weeks that followed, regulators increased the reserve requirement 3 or 4 times, and each raise prompted a flood of selling by the institutional big boys. The result sent silver back to the low 30s. The same can happen the other direction, when regulators lower reserve requirements.

Tell me how to bet on the regulators, and I'll play.

 

I would just like to add... Gold=Insurance. It has since the beginning of time... since the first man pulled it out of the ground it was precious and people wanted its beauty. Emotions are the same, feelings and people are the same. Even those with money...

The stock market as we all know works in cycles like previously mentioned... If you go back 100 years and look at all of the cycles and the emotions overall feeling and economic demographic at those times, im sure you'll be on the same page.

The US is the most in debt its ever been, we were the best country economically now China has surpassed us... The $17trillion US debt... the fact the fiat $ is the global currency. The fact that the world depends on the dollar and the global economy on a downturn being the only reason the $ hasnt fallen more in the last 5 years... Our policies suck period. Banks are way over-borrowed... investors are WAY over leveraged. if you look at the figures they are record breaking debt and extensions. WE are looking at a huge bubble waiting to burst... whether it's in the next 30days 6mths or 5 years. Eventually the market will correct and with the current world economy in my opinion there is going to be a switch of tides... This is when in my opinion we are going to see gold/silver spike again to new records and probably level out again I think silver $30-45 and gold $2100-2800.

According to history it will only be a matter of time before these are regular norms anyway. Like I said above... Gold=Insurance. Rare gold=better insurance.

just my 2 cents. btw dow about to pass 18000... here we go!

 

The last time the dow peaked and fell it took PM's with it. I have no idea whatsoever what it will do now.

 

The reason I think it will collapse at these levels is the timing and trend compared to the last 3 crashes. We are perfect timing 7 years... we are trading at all time highs and according to human emotion that can only last for so long no matter how much money the investors have... people trade not only on fundamentals but on feeling... when something gets to record highs investors start to speculate for corrections... we are seeing very strong trading... however this is only going to happen short term. It will happen fast... and swift... one random morning you will just wake up and see it...

 

You are right... they did go down right with the Dow then picked back up... this initially happens, obviously due to investors covering losses with other investments liquidating gold/silver. The same will happen in the next crash... people will be scared of the stock market again.. just like in 2008... then boom we saw a huge surge in PM's. all time highs.... the same will happen, history repeats itself... and for the most part people are sheep and forget... that why we see the Dow trending at all time highs again. Just cycles people... its all a game... keep it stupid simple!

 

As a rule, commodities, ie, gold, silver, oil, real estate, rise when the market tanks, as people are looking for protection of assets and going for an actual possession, rather than a paper promise.
But, when the market is good, as it is now, people ignore commodities and chase paper.
Metals are much like real estate, in that despite ups and downs, they tend to rise over time.
A lot of the run-up in precious metals was fueled by a fear of Armageddon, where paper money would have no value. In a worst-case scenario such as that, guns, ammo, water, food also become quite valuable.
Frankly, given the current climate, I do not think Armageddon is an entirely unlikely scenario. I guess its human nature, but how do you plan to survive the end of the world? Still, nice excuse to buy coins, eh?

 

True that! People are still people... they will always do the same thing, and have forever.

The key... and I'm not even a big bullion guy... I feel the metals are heavily manipulated by the feds... but as long as you can catch the manipulation and cycles your golden... but rare coins... bookooooo!!! coool! and fun!

The heritage auction had an 1889cc ms64 NGC go for $70k... that coin in an NGC holder... probably trend around $90k-100k... PCGS holder would go for $105k-115k... that in my opinion is a STEAL>>> there is so much money to be made on that just sitting on it a year or two!!!

 

In a year or two that coin might sell higher, if you're very lucky, but then only for about 2-3% higher. Put that same $100K in even a slow performing fund and you'll see 8-12% in that same time. Not a very smart investment. Doug has said for years how high end coins are the worst investment imaginable, and I agree. Generic gold- sure, great for retaining moderate savings. Rare gold- not so much.

 

I would have to say coleguy that rare coins... is one of the best ways to build/accumulate wealth. There are multiple coins in fact a large amount that have appreciated tremendously over the last 10 years...

sure you can throw your money into a slow performing fund... but if Edited Language ever hits the fan I hope its still worth something... on paper.

During the biggest down-turned economies over the span of the last 100 years every time true rarities gained tremendous value...

I'm not saying these dont ever lose value... but unless a bunch more are found... this is about as soft as a market in rarities you get.

when coins go from $3100 in 2002 to over $24k now... that's huge. or going from 2001 $80k to today over $550k.... or how about the 95silver Pr70dcam American Eagle... $400 ish in 1995 to over $16-20k???

I dont think you can deny the fact that Doug... doesnt know what he is talking about saying its the "worst investment imaginable"

The way you build wealth... is through tangible assets... nothing else.

 

Well, we'll just have to agree to disagree on that. Especially that last sentance, which is wrong by even commodities traders statements.

 

Coleguy.... How do you measure someones wealth? When it comes down to it... really... whats paper worth...? Whatever soemone says it is at any given time? Holding paper isnt wealth... thats an investment. You can have all of the dollars in the world... guess what? If the dollar becomes worthless tomorrow morning... you are worth-less. True wealth is measured by tangible assets you acquire. Your estate, your empire you build to pass onto your family or whatever you do. Dont get me wrong... Im sure a lot of financial advisers will tell you your very wealthy if you have lots of paper assets... but this isnt true wealth.

Id also like to say we will have to agree to disagree... wealth is a context-depending term...

 

Whats the difference between paper and metal? They both trade based on faith in a market, nothing else. But, if paper isn't wealth, I'll gladly accept any paper money, stocks, etc you may want to get rid of.

 

The difference is... you cant eat paper. Physically you cant eat gold either... but in the worst of a downturn the gold will be a lot more liquid. Not only that but unless your selling that paper back to the firm you got it from or a firm that will accept it... your going to have a hell of a time selling it privately. Gold... no problem. Trade it for whatever currency is active at that time... trade it for guns, food, etc. TANGIBLE> Edible. Not only gold... collectibles in general. The cool stuff you see these millionaires buying for millions of dollars... cars, art, wines, coins... They are doing it for a reason!!! Even the wealthiest trillionaires invest in rare assets. Its because they only get more rare and worth more as time goes on... and as long as time and money/wealth/worth continue to interest humanity.

 

Since Doug's apparently in the restroom, I guess I'll chime in:



Rare coins as a class are still trading at less than half of their peak value (from 1989). Sure, you can cherry-pick individual periods and individual coins that have given good returns -- but hindsight is always easy. It's prediction that's hard. Based on general performance over the last 30 years, valuable coins are at best a risky investment. Tack on the inevitable buying/selling spread, and the deck is really stacked against you.