Silver Will Never Be Valuable

Well............the govt's "official" inflation rate is 1.2% but if you ever grocery shop, you'll know that the things that really count but are cleverly excluded from the CPI have skyrocketed over the last few years.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

You're proposing that inflation is likely to "remain" at its "current rate" of "1.2% a year" (snicker)?

Setting aside the issue of what contrived basket of prices is actually rising at so low a rate, I can't imagine anyone thinking that that rate is sustainable over the long term. Over the last 100 years, even including the Great Depression's two decades of net deflation, we've averaged 3.22%; that would take today's $15.50 to $100 in a bit less than 60 years.

Maybe "silver does not increase with inflation". But maybe you can pick pairs of data points to make whichever argument you prefer. ($40 an ounce in 1980, $40 an ounce in 2011! No increase with inflation!)

 

I'm planning to buy Detriot next year with two junk dimes.

 

Maybe you'll get a 3 cent silver in change!

 

I would raise homie's rent but I think he really lives in Illnois.

 

You can argue the subject matter without disrespecting the member. The rules are very specific about that. SO yes his look on the subject may be far off from yours, so what ? He does answer the questions asked whereas, the ones asking do not do the same. And lets not add those who indicate they know the future without ANY sound reasoning pro or con. If you don't like what a person says, ignore it, unless it is directed towards you a member, and then click on the report link. You can not convince me anyone on this thread has enough silver nor information to move the market 3 cents either way, so discuss, but cut the attitude down a notch. I know some are hurt because silver dumped, and also that Eminem was right, but there is even a lesson to be learned in that. Stay within the rules.
Jim

 

These haters gonna hate but I'll keep on making correct predictions to prove them homies wrong

 

Ok Eminem, cut the antagonistic attitude such as "haters" or "homies" as they are inflammatory and I think you know it. You can make all the predictions you wish and boast if you want, but without "extra sauce". Thanks , Jim

 

silver is up 2%

parody is parody
impersonating may have........

 

Got that right! If he can't say dollar like a normal man would, ignore him. He talks like a prison inmate and only starts threads to stir up dust. Ignore this 7/11 cash register foolio.

 

Like how you disappeared from the "Silver isn't going to top $20" thread for the entire time that silver was above that level and now you're back? There's a conspicuous gap from June to September where you never posted once in that topic. What did Silver prices look like during that time?





Then about September, when it seemed obvious that Silver was back under $20 for a while, our fearless prognosticator decided to return.

Let's see, here's my prediction. It's going to rain. I don't know where or when, but it's going to rain. When it does, you heard it here first.

 

OK ALL!!! Stop the inflammatory personal comments toward each other on the site. It is not just one member, it is several, causing unrest. So please stop now

Last warning on this.

 

Slim is pretty right on lately. Maybe he's right. Or maybe he's wrong. I hope he's right at this point, but wrong in 30 years when I look to sell. All good fun, as long as you only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Eminem was wrong, silver went over $20 after his prediction. No one who can see the future would make such a mistake!

 

This is a common misconception. Inflation has nothing to do with the price of PMs. Absolutely nothing. What matters is the real rate of return on risk free assets (bank account, treasuries). If interest rates are below the rate of inflation, generally PM prices will go up because people move money away from risk free assets into something that can preserve the purchasing power of their money.

Inflation inevitably will go up. But, how much higher can rates go? The government won't be able to service it's debt, if rates are say 10%. We know that inflation has the potential to go up to 6-7%, if not higher. I think the Fed will be pressured into keeping rates lower than inflation and this will cause PM prices to go up. At the same time, if stocks go down, everyone will want to pile into gold and silver.

 

Inflation is a relative metric based mostly on what you focus on. Grandpa's 1950 quarter bought him a hamburger in 1950. It will still buy you a hamburger today. That's all there is to silver.

 

Eminem, what's your prediction on gold? I'm not a bullion collector but if gold gets low enough I might buy some generic $10 Indians.

You guys think PMs are low now? I bought my first St. Gaudens for $425 in 1999, not so long ago, and that was kind of high.

 

Now, there's a metric for you.

Three years ago, that 1950 quarter would have bought me a fairly nice hamburger (melting at $7.50 or more).

Today, it won't even buy a Big Mac.

And in 1997, when a Big Mac cost $1.90 and silver was in the middle of a long, flat stretch around $5, that same burger would've set you back two silver quarters and a dime or more.

Shall I talk about how many burgers you could get for a share of Apple stock back in the day, and now?

 

Apple stocks are an investment. Silver is not. The only people who say silver is an investment are the people who sell it. Every successful financial planner I know (and one I know in particular who handles huge portfolios) says that if you can stomach the volatility, a five percent position in gold is acceptable. Gold, not silver. Acceptable, not optimal, as there are better places for your money.

I hold gold and silver because I like them. I also have a number of comic books I paid between 20 cents and a few dollars for twenty to thirty years ago that are valued at hundreds of dollars each. But I do not recommend them in place of index funds.

My response was simply to say that people bash metals based on the rhetoric of pumpers and speculators, but that's not how everyone views it. I think it's pretty cool that I have a silver coin from 1620 that I can take to a dealer, sell for melt (not collectable value) and walk away with cash. That's a fact that I can prove any day I feel like it.

Metals are unique. Maybe oil is a better commodity, maybe a garage full of bricks is as likely to go to the moon in value. But metal has energy when you hold it in your hand. That 1620 coin is a fighter, man, and it will still spend no matter what stocks do. It might even come out ahead in the end.

Nobody... NOBODY... knows.

 

Super post, Miko W. It doesn't matter what we think; it doesn't matter what we know and it doesn't matter what we think we know. What will happen will happen. So, just sit back and enjoy the ride.

We can know all of the variables of a particular situation, but that does not guarantee we can predict the outcome correctly. When it comes down to it, any attempt to predict the future is basically an exercise in jaw-jacking or, in this case, advancing toward carpal tunnel syndrome.