Gold prices and silver, 50 years?

For peak silver why are you concentrating on sprimary silver mines? I thought most silver comes from other mines, and copper has been going up, which will spur more copper production, and silver along with it.

Btw, I thought even the most bullish silver writers were writing all in costs for primary silver miners were around $25 an ounce right now. Why would it take over $100 to spur more production?

Btw, anyone considering "peak" theories, please do not forget as well as DEMAND will drop as prices increase. Industry will not just sit by and pay whatever you wish to charge them, demand will move as a result of price.

 

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/20/gold-mine-output-idUSL5N0J44T720131120

Here is an article for those "peak gold" folks.

"What we're seeing is an ongoing response not to the slide in prices, but the decade-long stretch of fairly heavy capital investment into the mining industry that preceded it."

The world's top three gold miners - Barrick Gold, Newmont Mining and AngloGold Ashanti - all reported higher production in the most recent quarter."

Such an issue, like I said, is never as simplistic as many wish to believe. I wish it were simple, straightforward, and enable me to make a boatload of cash. I like a boatload of cash as much as anyone, unfortunately for me I do not view the issue black and white.

 

Yeah, talk about "Peak" theories just gives me the heebee jeebees. Guys who have as many trips as I have around the sun remember the oil crunch of the 70's and the endless predictions we would be out of oil by, like now. As a youngster back them, I even bought into it. Seems ridiculous now.

As investors, the time frame that we need to focus on is exactly 1 life time, let our kids worry about the next lifetime. A lifetine is reletively short slice of time and I just don't see us running low on oil, silver, gold in that time slice.

So, as investors, I believe we need to look at these commodities as unlimited for the time being at least. You need more gold, you dig another hole, it is that simple. Will it be that way 5,000 years from now? I don't know, but I also don't care. My personal opinion is, 5,000 years from now as society evolves, most folks will just view Gold as the near useless yellow metal that it is. YMMV

 

It all depends on the method a mining operation has chosen to allocate expenses.

 

Remember that the reason that precious metals are worth more than other things is that there is a limited supply of them. We are close to running out of a lot of things in terms of them becoming economically too expensive to find at current prices. Silver is a by product of a lot of other mining, so maybe it can keep being produced even if the price is low, but a lot of things won't be mined unless the cost of production is less than what what they sell for.

 

I guess I would simply ask where this statement of us "running out" comes from. Is there some resource you can point me to showing how we are running out? Even the bullish pm press estimates pure silver miners all in costs are around $30 an ounce, and pure silver miners are usually the most expensive source of silver. Tell me copper and tin prices will collapse and 8I might be more worried about silver availability.

Maybe supplies will be deficient in a couple of decades, but that it too far out for me to worry about right now.

 

Yeah folks need to stop making investment decisions on things that never happened in the past. Maybe someday we will run out of something, but are you going to be smart enough to pick the right thing? Then even if you pick the right thing, are you going to get the time frame right? The odds are really stacked against ya......

 

The following statement is from the Silver Institute's website.

"Global silver mine production grew last year to 787.0 Moz, primarily due to by-product output from the lead/zinc sector. Primary silver mine supply grew by 1 percent to account for 28 percent of global silver mine output. Mexico was the world’s largest silver producing country in 2012, followed by China, Peru, Australia and Russia. Primary silver mine cash costs rose to $8.88 an ounce, reflecting higher prices for labor, electricity, and maintenance charges."

 

I try not to over think it... I feel like whenever the economy causes fear and uncertainty for an extended period, gold and silver will go up.... whenever the economy provides hope and consistency for an extended period, the price will go down. If the world economy overall continues to improve I could imagine silver continuously dropping to < $10 an ounce. Industry will continue to buy, but most investors will put their money in other parts of the (now growing) economy. Of course,,, if you are young... say under 40... Then buying silver during this period could pay off for you when/if it spikes to $50+ again when the next global recession hits.

But I could be totally wrong about all of that.

 

When California banned 100 W Reveal light bulbs a couple of years ago, I had to go to Arizona to get them. I use them for reading and photo work. Now that manufacture of them is banned in US, I bought a box of 48. Maybe I should buy another case for re-selling when LED sources are found to induce psychopathic behavior and mistaking MD for DD

 

I heard something about this on the news recently. What kind of light bulbs have been banned from manufacture in the US exactly? Will I still be able to buy good old fashioned 70 W incandescent light bulbs or will I be forced to buy those goofy looking light bulbs that contain mercury (which can make your teeth fall out if ingested)?

A couple of years ago I heard that the 2007 "law" didn't apply to the manufacture or sale of regular incandescent light bulbs but I am not too sure how accurate this is.

 

I think we have discovered the very first light bulb stacker Incandescents to the Moon BABY!!!!!!!

 

It is the 2014 law and refers to 40 watt and above incandescent bulb. GE has redesigned the Reveal bulb to contain a halogen bulb inside ( much more expensive), but is less than 40 W. The law isn't against selling as much as being manufactured or imported. California intends to ban all incandescent bulb by 1917, regardless of wattage.

If you enjoy reading with old eyes, there is nothing like a 100W reveal incandescent, not even an Ott-light, IMO. How many are running to Home depot and Lowes to see what is still there

 

These government regulations are ridiculous. I love how American manufacturers of incandescent light bulbs are being put out of business (such as in South Carolina) and that "modern", mercury filled light bulbs are being imported from China instead. I don't know how much stock is left but a good place to find incandescent lights at least used to be at the 99 Cent Only Store and possibly Dollar Tree. I'm going to stop by these two stores next week and see what I can find and stock up as much as possible.

 

I checked the 99 cent only here and their bulbs are now halogen inside the glass bulb. The color is almost butterscotch. The spirals do not do well in humid areas like my son's shower bathroom, lasts about 1 month and then sizzles.

 

Back to peak silver. You should read Richard Heinberg's book Peak Everything. I think that we benefited from cheap energy, and with cheap energy any resource can be produced. The advent of more expensive energy will change everything. We are at that point now. Ores which were minable will not be as easily extracted if the price of energy goes up. It will only make sense to get them if people are willing to pay more.

 

http://www.amazon.com/Peak-Everything-Waking-Century-Declines/dp/0865716455

You can peek inside the first 20 pages or so.

 

I think it's fair to say, with German authorities openly talking about gold manipulation and the Fed's foot-dragging in giving the Germans back their gold, and with the Chinese buying virtually all of the world's gold mining output, that something big is going to happen soon. I know skepticism has grown over repeated failed calls for a COMEX default, but it seems there is real pressure being felt in the physical market.

I think we could see gold at $10,000 per ounce by the end of this decade and silver well over $100, possibly over $300 per ounce.

Then again, I could be wrong, and the comments above are not meant as advice to anyone. They are merely an opinion.

 

I sure hope not... I would like to be able to afford to buy PMs for the next decade or so; then it can go through the roof and I can retire on some 3rd world island somewhere! (In your scenario that might be Hawaii.) haha

 

That's always the hope, though, right? Everyone hopes they are the last one in before it "goes to the moon". This is why I am always extremely leery of such predictions. Way, way too often its not a cogent, rational evaluation but rather extreme wishful thinking. I probably own more pm than many on this board. Would it be terrific for me personally for prices to be that high? Yeah, just like it would make my day if LVS went to $1,000, but I am not going to base much stock purchases on what I would hope for, you know?

Btw, this is meant more towards the pandering media, no offense meant to any members.