Though I have pure silver and gold bullion in my collection, I consider semi-numismatic coins to be a hedge, offering value in terms of their silver content while also possessing additional value as collectibles. I believe there is a good chance the U.S. will remain a dominant power for the foreseeable future. Edited political However, new powers are rising, notably China and Russia, and they are not only gaining ground in rivaling the U.S. in military might but they are also using asymmetric warfare to weaken the U.S. dollar via economic means. Brazil, meanwhile, appears to be coordinating economically with these two rising powers. For this reason, I have been buying pre-2010 Chinese Pandas (mostly slabbed), silver Russian roubles, and, when possible, silver 960 reis pieces. My theory is that if these nations continue to experience middle-class growth and growing affluence, demand for their historical pieces will rise substantially. In the case of China, not many pre-2010 Pandas were minted. I am also a fan of Fat Man dollars (which I prefer buying slabbed), though I also have other Chinese junk silver. This does not mean that I avoid semi-numismatic plays from other nations. I believe 19th-century British crowns are generally undervalued. I also buy plenty of American silver coins. At the very least, these coins make a wonderful addition to a collection. Is anyone else doing this? I know I left out India, and, while I have not generally bought Indian coins, collecting Indian coins could also be a worthwhile endeavor. As for South Africa, the only coins that have interested me from that country are the Krugerrands.
I've been picking up Indian coins , and some Hong Kong coins but more because I like them . But I do think your theory is sound .
Goes to explaining his / her purchasing strategy, not to influencing policy. I don't see the problem here.
I picked up this 1997 Panda on eBay for $95 flat. According to Wikipedia, only 50,000 were minted. To me, that sounds insane. Just 50,000.
I am reminded of Mr. Miyagi advice. Walk on left side of road. Safe. Walk on right side of road. Safe. Walk in middle of road. Get squish like grape.
Well sort of. I buy Panda's for my wife both Gold and Silver. The early silver ones really start to get pricey though. I am not sure if it is the most sound of financial plans but it may pay off for the reason you stated. When the middle class of China have enough disposable income for such things they might drive them higher. But honestly, I just buy them because my wife likes them. We will see what happens......
Biggest issue with such things are assumptions. Even if you are right about BRIC countries and rising affluence. What makes you so sure they will want to collect coins? There are tons of things they might want to do with such affluence, so making a bet that two or things have to all go right for the bet to pay off seems risky. Google parlay and see what I mean. The house LOVES parlays. Long term I do believe BRIC countries will do better, however each have their own issues as well. My biggest concern with this strategy would be eevn if you are right about that, they then have to ALSO want to collect coins, and they would ALSO have to collect the TYPE of coins you bought. What if they instead wanted older, younger, different metal coins than you bought? Then you would have been right on two things but still lost.
I agree it would be risky if it were my primary aim in coin collecting. But BRICS coins make up maybe 15% of my coin assets. I think collecting BRICS coins aligns with the belief that there will soon be a monetary reset, which many silver bugs believe. Collecting silver coins that you genuinely like from these countries seems to me like a good idea, aside from investment considerations. For this reason, I have especially emphasized collecting more Chinese and Russian coins. I am mimicking their central banks, in a way. Plus, with just tens of thousands of Pandas having been issued in certain years, I do not see too much downside in some of them.
I like it! I picked up a Panda for silver value about a year ago. I've never had one, so I really don't know what it's worth. I like your strategy. I go for a lot of strange numis over just straight bullion when I have a choice.
Pandas prior to 2001 are very confusing. There are many varieties, small date, large date, plain large date, serif large date, frosty version, Shanghai version, ShenYang Mint and mirror depending on the year. It is difficult to collect every date and variety as only a few pop up every so often online. Also, there are many good counterfeits out there. I would suggest buying graded examples which also label the variety. Lastly, unlike US mints, China's mintage reports are sometimes absent or are inconsistent.
Howdy, Well thought out strategy and indeed, it might work. As any country comes into favor, there will be an increase in demand for its stuff. However, when it comes to bullion coins - either present day or historical - don't underestimate the breadth nor debth of the market. Folks have been collecting these coins for a long time already and from all over the world. Please note that I am not saying you are wrong or that there will not be a premium associated with the evolution of certain countries. There probably will be. I'm just of a mind that it will be 'on the margin' and not something that can be easily, nor safely played. Your tactics are to overweight the BRIC coins in your allocation and that's the best approach. It's not unlike how I overweight silver to gold and mining stocks to bullion. I'm playing the percentages on established metrics [read: the g/s ratio and the XAU/bullion metric]. However, I'm not going crazy - just an overweight on the margin play. The other parallel is momentum investing in general, where you select any hot sector or segment of the stock market and overweight it slightly, in your otherwise plain vanilla portfolio, to improve your returns above the norm. good luck, peace, rono
I just hope your portfolio doesn't go down, because there will be a lot of posts about how it's on the Brics, etc. (instead of on the rocks) But seriously I think it's a fun strategy. It's like Chinese antiques, which used to be undervalued are suddenly hot commodities. These up and coming places may create a market for their currency. I look around for old Brazilian coins, but they must have dropped silver from them quite early.
Here are some mid- nineteenth century Brasilian silver coins, but some time around the turn of the century they went to .500 and eventually to bronze and alloys. http://en.numista.com/catalogue/bresil-24.html
In my case, the semi-numismatic coins have kept my net worth up while silver has plummeted in value. The only downside to aiming for numismatic coins is that they are generally less liquid than bullion, but at least there's eBay in case cash is needed right away, minus the fees. The downside with eBay is that it's so easy for sellers to mask defects in a coin. I can't even remember the number of times I have bought problem coins there, but, on the other hand, I have gotten exceptional bargains there, too. Overall, my experience has been "so so." One bright side is that with all of my purchases I have plenty of positive feedbacks, plus I earn credits. The positive feedbacks boost the likelihood of people buying from me. Possibly, I will use my credits for another Russian rouble this time. In my case, I like buying crown-sized coins or bullion from these countries. I sometimes wonder why the silver Roubles with Nicholas II were only about 34mm... I suppose, given the poverty in those times in that country, a smaller silver coin was more practical. I am at the point that I might slow down my silver coin collecting, because it's taking up too much space. Though silver may be a better value than gold, I might switch to gold because it it so much easier to store! Plus, I have coins from just about everywhere.
