What a ride! I've been reading everything I can get my hands on for months and I still don't know who to believe. So the question for you "expert" prognosticators: Is gold still going down to $900 an ounce? Or have we seen the last of "cheap" gold? More specifically, will we see an entry point again?
By "entry point", do you mean "a point at which gold maintains a low price long enough for you to stock up, and then rises sharply"? If so, yes -- it happens frequently, and has happened recently. If you mean "a point at which I can know this is going to happen", sorry, markets don't work that way. (An important corollary: anyone who tells you he knows is either deceiving himself, or trying to deceive you, or both.)
If you noticed a lot of those experts have been so inaccurate about their predictions, I feel like I am watching a weather report, you have a 50% chance of rain...Flip a coin.
I mean a pullback that makes the price attractive. "Attractive" to me means actual prices that are lower than recent spot prices and have a good potential for being lower than near future spot prices. Example: I bought a $5 modern commemorative for $320. That was an "attractive price". Within a few days, the spot price was $321. A week later, I bought one for $330, also an "attractive price" at the time. (current spot is $338)
any pull back from here is a good time to buy. I bought some a little while ago when spot was $1225. I never thought gold was going down to near 1k. I think after labor day when the House/Senate are back things are going to heat up. you gotta do what you think is the right play.
This is just my opinion, but i don't think we have seen the last of "cheap" gold. We are just now a 12 year bull market for gold. Its going to take time (years) for prices to cool down just as it took time for them to heat up. I along with many others wish I bought into gold in the late 90's. At that time, everyone thought gold was worthless and nobody paid attention to it. It takes balls to buy into something that doesn't look attractive. Look at the stock market in '08. Same thing. This is a very simplified opinion, but hope it helps.
Totally agree, Just like thinks don't go straight up, they don't go straight down either. IMO, it is not the bottom.
Up up and away from here imo. War in Syria may well breakout soon as well, that probably won't hurt the price of gold either. My opinion is we'll see a minimum of $5,000 before the bull run is over.
In my humble opinion, I believe we have seen a sudden renewal of faith in PMs as a safe haven. The sudden downturn of the stock markets around August 5th due to the prospect of the end of QE3 sent people scurrying to buy gold and silver on August 6th when it was the only thing that wasn't falling. Things started snowballing on August 7th. Whatever caused the loss of faith in PMs (market manipulation?) was overcome, and when everyone saw how rapidly PMs could recover, faith was fully restored. PMs no longer look toxic. Don't get me wrong, I'd absolutely love to see $1000 gold. With what is going on in the world right now, I don't think that will happen this side of a global economic meltdown.
So this brings up a good point. Many factors go into the price of gold, especially fear. Fear of another war, fear of the dollar collapsing, fear of a double dip recession... pick your poison. Ever since 9/11, the price of gold has been climbing. Its been a rough decade plus. In my opinion, and this is where people can jump all over me, I think that fear (and price of gold) will decrease in time. It looks like the US economy is slowly recovering, the US dollar is still the best of the worst currencies, unemployment is very slowly decreasing and I do think that eventually this QE madness will stop and interest rates will rise. Usually when I hear "gold is going to 5000" or when you see billboards saying "what can gold do for you?" I think we are in a bubble. Its been a long time coming, but what comes up has to come down.
Precious metals may very well be in a bubble, the beginning of one. I too here all the commercials and ads touting gold and silver ownership, but for it to reach crash stage IMO we'll need a good chunk of population to go all in like with .com stocks and real-estate. The economy is not recovering, unemployment is not getting better ...that's drinking the Kool aid talk IMO. When soccer moms and college kids start mentioning (if ever) their stacks, then it'll be time take profits, until that time enjoy the next run up.
I think you are right Yooper. When I heard everyone talking about real estate back in 2008 it was time to get out. I don't hear anyone talking about gold or silver yet.
Just for kicks, let me try my hand at prognosticating... Looking at the charts since the end of June, and applying "normal" market analysis, I am seeing a temporary peak of $1500 somewhere near the end of September appear in my crystal ball. Things are somewhat cloudy beyond September.
No one knows for sure what is going to happen so I'm not saying I'm right for sure, but I'm pretty confident. Yes gold has been going up for over a decade but it has only had reasonable gains on a yearly basis, typically when a bubble is nearly ready to pop you will see huge gains, 50 or a 100% or more for a year would be a much clearer signal for a bubble rather than a consistent 10-20%. I believe the U.S. economy is actually in recession, the reason I believe that but the government numbers don't state it is because of increases in population and inflation. At best though in reality we are going nowhere, neither up or down. If interest rates rise how is the U.S. debt going to be sustainable? It's already at nearly 17 trillion, if interest rates rose significantly that number would spiral out of control and pretty soon all the income the U.S. govt has wouldn't even cover the interest payments on the debt. Gold is a good indicator of just how weak the dollar is. It's not an exact measure but it certainly gives you an idea. 100 years ago Gold was $20 an ounce, now its $1400. Has gold really gone up 7,000% ? Well in dollar terms it has, but in actual purchasing power its probably quite similar to what it was in 1913. That gives you a very good idea of just how much affect inflation has over a long period of time.
Also a quick comment on the unemployment numbers. A big reason they've gone down is that many people are now ineligible for unemployment checks because they've run out of time. When that happens they are counted as unemployed anymore. Labor force participation rate is at an all-time low. Yes part of that is probably due to baby boomers, but it still gives a much better idea of where we are at. Also most of the new jobs are very low pay, retail, fast food, ect. Not the type of jobs that are going to put the U.S. into a sustained recovery.
Well, all you have to do is look at the U.S. National Debt Clock. Look down at the bottom right at these two numbers, that will tell you all you need to know: U.S. Unfunded Liabilities Liability per Taxpayer Oh, and you might want to sit down first... http://www.usdebtclock.org/ There is, as far as I can tell only one possible way for these debts to ever be paid. Massive inflation combined with artificially low interest rates.
I agree with most of what was said in this post. However, where i disagree is when you mention gold has made reasonable gains. In a bubble, there are reasons gold prices sore, but I don't think they are reasonable. I think there are several reasons that point to gold being in a bubble. 1) Parabolic run up in price 2) Extreme investor enthusiasm/euphoria 3) Media frenzy/overspeculation 4) Creation of a Gold ETF 5) Outrageous predictions of future gold price We now live in a world where we have TV shows about gold (alaska gold rush), billboards, Cash for gold stores, etc. They even have gold vending machines! I don't know how we can not be in a bubble. It took time to build up, it will take some time to erase some of the gains. At least I hope so, cause I want to collect some coins without breaking the bank.
