Please read and add to favorites if you are not familiar how the Comex markets work. I find this article an excellent primer to understanding this process which many seem to not know. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1374696820.php I particularly find informative when he discusses WHY most contracts are settled for cash, (they are useful to industry), and how when the market is going down is very normal and expected physical stocks on the exchanges go down, (because there are better things to do with the PM). All is not "all paper is manipulation of the market", and "we are running out of pm because the price is too low" folks. Its actually a very normal market, and once you understand how and why it works, I think you are in a better position to be your own "BS detector" of pm pusher scare tactics.
Thanks. This forum has helped balance the information I get, but from what I gather there appears to be some evidence of gold tightness among bullion banks. Earlier this year, ABN Amro declared it will no longer deliver gold, and now it is my understanding that Rabobank is declaring it will settle gold holdings in cash. On the other hand, I am aware that predictions of a Comex default have been made since at least 2008, and they have all proved inaccurate. So, I am wondering if it isn't that the analysis is wrong so much as the timing. I can see a scenario in which an exchange is forced to settle all contracts in cash because of a lack of the underlying physical commodity, even if it is "normal" for most futures contracts to be settled for cash.
But the other point was how it is NORMAL for Comex stocks to drop when prices decline. Yet the pm pushers are making this huge deal out of it, saying this is PROVING we are running out of metal and will be "forced" to only settle in cash. The ABM Amro thing was a function of them always having that ability, it was in the agreement that people signed. I haven't read much about Rabo, but since they are from the same country it wouldn't surprise me if the agreements were similar. *For full disclosure, I do business with Rabobank.
I am not disputing the legality of closing gold holding accounts, since these institutions know the rules better than most of us here. It just seems that the ABN Amro and Rabobank news is a giant red flag for me, since they are major institutions and it would seem it is in their interest to hold gold for wealthy individuals who are willing to pay the necessary costs for it. The question is why now, all of a sudden? Also, it will be interesting to see if any other major institutions follow in their footsteps. Again, this may be faulty analysis in the end, but it seems theoretically possible for traders to let charts and trends so utterly separate them from reality that the actual physical commodity becomes no longer available due to a supply and demand mismatch. At least, this could occur temporarily until prices adjust to fundamentals. But again, this is a theoretical point and it may not be relevant to the situation right now. Personally, I am on the fence due to how long these predictions have been made and since I am not an insider.
Howdy, Nice read. Thanks. Jimmy Rogers once said that if there was some big conspiracy to control the POG someone would have sold the story for a movie long before now [read: someone would talke]. What is more realistic is that anyone that has any sort of means to manipulate the POG to their advantage and to any degree whatsoever - will do so. I would, you would, we all would. This is the way the market works. peace, rono
