war nickles worth buying @...

I am meeting someone this weekend that has 26 War Nickels and will sell them for $1 each. If I were you I would just be patient and find someone will to sell at a lower value. I found this person on craigslist and there may be someone in your area willing to sell lower.

 

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who said they are paying 4-5 bucks a piece for them?

 

I cannot understand you, Tyler.
WAT

Read Page 4 Tinpot. I'm not makin' it up lol
There's no good reason to spend 180% premium on junk Ag at this POS/mkt. Much, MUCH better deals out there.

 

There is no reason to pay 101% for junk silver like War Nickles or 40% halves.

 

I guess there isn't but someone's paying it. I saw $3 and $4. That doesn't mean I paid them. I am going to try to sell at that price, if I can get it.

 

You should be able to get $2.50-$3 reliably for them on eBay. Even if you were to buy at today's full melt of $1.80, if you BIN them at $2.99, after fees and ship you can net $.25 each. No, not a lot of money, but if you sell enough, in larger lots and bundles and still maintain the $.25 margin, you can "convert" your poor lowly war nickels into better 90% and .999 over time for nothing out of pocket. If you're able to acquire them at any less than melt, you're on the very plus side.

Should anyone pay more than melt for them? No. But, most people just see "silver" in there and know nothing about what it's really worth, or how hard it may be to resell, so there's a market for sure.

 

Selling? No, POS @ 31.40 I see most auctions SOLD @ ~1.75-1.90 ; so >$2. is OPTIMISTIC and therefore wishful not reasonable estimation (unless UNC/BU)

Don't forget the feeBay bite (13%) - a reasonable Seller's net after all costs & includ s/h was $1.50 I know I did the math, you can too.
The market is what the market is ... not what you want it to be. Yes I know it's pennies here but see what's happening?

BURNED. If someone bought a $4 junk War Nickel @ $31.50, s/he needs to SELL @ $4.55 on feeBay just to break even. That means:
a) find a Greater Fool,
b) Sell at the normal mkt rate and eat the loss, or
c) hope & pray for a HUGE POS advance to Sell @ the same/current 'good melt rate' (above)

At the typical rate (c) & to break-even, the guy who just overpaid 126% (above) finds a likely buyer @ $4.55 per coin when POS @ $80.

OUCH! Of course it's true uninformed buyers pay more for singles more often, and if POS goes over $45. more dummies/Greater Fools (c) might jump in and buy the junkiest of junk at higher rates.
Big IFs, there... don't count on POS $80 ozt! And if/when day that arrives, bet there will be eBay taxes too.

So back to the 'worth buying/investment' angle of the OP: folks trading really need to get a grip on the math & the market FIRST. Needing to break-even at POS $80 is very, very poor trading. WATCH THOSE PREMIUMS you pay, now & forever. Otherwise, you're losing... it's practically guaranteed.

I suppose War Nickels a weaker (if not the weakest) bullion choice. The relatively low-price point is deceptive/attractive to many poor noobs now - but don't count on them buying anything when POS is @ $80.ozt Instead, look at declining sales of AGEs and ASEs as proof of future trend (w/ higher PM prices and a cruddy economy on QE life-support.)

POS goes down? Well don't whine we didn't tell you so, either. On bullion, too-high premiums are for loser latecomers and panicking idiots... every time!

 

Can you get them for melt or below? Absolutely, and everyone who's looking at this from an "investment" standpoint should. The majority of the auctions, especially those for larger lots are closing for current melt or below. But, more to what my intended point was, there's plenty willing to pay well above what they should be. Especially in the onesie-twosie arena which is where you'll have your best chance of actually making some money.

For example here's some auctions, all closed within the past 48 hours:

3 nickels, $8.49 shipped = $2.83 each
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Lot-of-3-Silver-War-Nickels-1943-1945-/150985588954?pt=Coins_US_Individual&hash=item23277140da&nma=true&si=do6V2aUTeRFQnOCAwIkx5kWK2mU%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

1 nickel, $3.44 shipped:
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1945-S-JEFFERSON-SILVER-WAR-NICKEL-IN-MINT-STATE-CONDITION-/321060792001?pt=Coins_US_Individual&hash=item4ac0b6e6c1&nma=true&si=do6V2aUTeRFQnOCAwIkx5kWK2mU%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

2 nickels, $5.58 shipped = $2.79 each:
http://www.ebay.com/itm/2-x-JEFFERSON-WORLD-WAR-2-NICKEL-35-SILVER-COIN-JUNK-SILVER-WAREHOUSE-/150984137024?pt=Coins_US_Individual&hash=item23275b1940

1 nickel per auction for this guy, $2.71 shipped:
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1942-P-JEFFERSON-SILVER-WAR-NICKEL-/200886417867?pt=Coins_US_Individual&hash=item2ec5c379cb&nma=true&si=do6V2aUTeRFQnOCAwIkx5kWK2mU%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

This guy has sold 433 of them at $2.35 each shipped:
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1942-1945-35-Silver-War-Nickels-mixed-dates-/310557386177?pt=Coins_US_Individual&hash=item484ea9a5c1

And this guy has sold 18 of them for $3.95 each shipped:
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1944-S-Jefferson-Silver-War-Nickel-WWII-/140890951819?_trksid=p2045573.m2102&_trkparms=aid%3D222002%26algo%3DSIC.FIT%26ao%3D1%26asc%3D14188%26meid%3D5253110614753662083%26pid%3D100034%26prg%3D1099%26rk%3D2%26sd%3D121057259753%26

 

I think this may be the going price now for war nickels. A little shy of 3 bucks. I'm putting about 5 of them at $3.50 in my booth now. We'll see if they sell...

 

Agreed, the onesie-twosie crowd will sometimes overpay by ~30- 60% (as I wrote: "true uninformed buyers pay more for singles more often") but look more carefully.
Lots of high rates BINs DON'T SELL at all. Don't cherry-pick 'the onesie' High (or Low) Price and call that "the market" either. I averaged all 1/29/13 junk sales, weighted by volume/#s, that's market. Nor should you conflate the "Choice BU" coins with worn junk (as you did: "Mint State" example) ; rather, aggregate same-same and weight completed auctions accordingly.

Sure there are LOTS of folks who'd like to sell higher... but they CAN'T. That's exactly my point. It's a Bull Trap, beware.

1/30/13: POS 32.02/ Intrinsic 1.80 ....this junk War Nickel didn't sell at $3.70>>> and won't likely sell at $3.14, POS @ 27 either. But net feeBay -13%, that coin's a sure loser for someone PAYING even $3. now.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1944-P-JEFFERSON-SILVER-WAR-NICKEL-/200887700487

The biggest question left answered here: given declining Ag coin sales at current POS levels, WHY ASSUME MOST NOOBS WILL HAVE MORE $s TO BUY MORE War Nickels AT EVEN HIGHER PRICES? That (il)logic goes squarely against everything taught in Econ 100: check that, chief. It's bubblicious, Silverfishy nonsense, frankly.

Buying War Nickels at (high POS) Intrinsic rates today looks to be a very dodgy proposition. This is Seller's Market Moment --- as good as it gets? ---and quite the opposite of a Buyer's Sweet Opportunity. Anyway, informed bullion buyers are waiting for better prices, POS @ 22.-25. War Nickels will be "worth" ~ $1.24 - 1.41 when that retrace happens, inevitably. We shall see...

Keep your powder dry 'til then! (April? June?)

 

I am not so sure about a retracement to $22 or $25. I think we have the new bottom, which is around $30, but I could be wrong... Meanwhile I am not backing up the truck and filling it up with war nickels, even if I could find that many. I prefer something solid like 90% pre-64 silver. I plan on buying some tomorrow.

 

Well I'm not "sure" about an imminent retrace to $22. but how many -25% > -50% retracements has Ag witnessed in this PM Bull mkt already? Count 'em up, since 2001/2.
Never say "Floor!" when evidence shows against that, repeatedly.

Silver has already fallen ~-50% TWICE in recent years.
http://www.cointalk.com/t219228/#post1597339

 

I guess I do too. I have a feeling that this may be the last dump before it goes to da moon. But I've been wrong before and we may be in a deflationary depression, in which case we have seen the high already. I think silver will hold its own as something to trade whatever happens.

 

LOL, it's funny : I agree with you and disagree with you!

Nay: lots more 'dumps' and we're probably ~8-10 years from the Investor Death Spike. So if 2013 is a Big Bad Year, it'lll be more 1975/1976 than 1979. I think.

No again. YES we are in a deflationary depression (with 4q 2012 the very beginning of the NEXT contraction) but PMs are an alternative monetary instrument and will not permanently devalue (as classical commodities did in the late 19th C.) to the End of the Dollar. On the contrary, we'll witness massive Paper Price gyrations (Up & Down, Up & Down... in ever greater swings) over the next decade or so. Then the moonshot, at the Dollar's Ultimate Collapse. Again, I think.

Clarification? Retail buyers (esp. noobs) will not/cannot successfully "trade" bullion, and they shouldn't even try to flip it. I've seen no evidence to suggest otherwise. Simple folks (prepper/hoarders, prudent savers, etc.) should see PM bullion as a reserve asset only, not an "investment" or flip-trade. (I think you mean "to trade" when the Dollar fails; YES but that wasn't entirely clear.)

For most everyone (hoarders) the discipline is simply/always 'Buy Low' (when others are freaking out) & hold on until The End. By accumulating incrementally on the periodic Silver dips, the average buyer lowers his/her cost basis over time. IF you buy quality at low premiums every time this alternative to Dollar-Cost Averaging practically guarantees you won't overpay to build a PM stash here and going forward.

There are ALWAYS new Silver buyers arriving; learning 'the bullionist basics' isn't difficult either. (This is more for them not those who already 'got the memo' and hold enough Ag/Au already. hth)

 

Getting back to the original topic...

Current POS from Coinflation is $31.92. Here's a quick table of Coinflation "melt value", Provident buy price, and Provident sell price (as FV multiple) for different types of coinage:

[table="width: 500, class: grid"]

Coin
Coinflation melt
Provident buys at
Provident sells at

War nickel
35.9
28.8
36.3

Kennedy half (40%)
9.44
8.86
9.68

90% silver (xFV)
23.1
22.9
24.9

Morgan/Peace cull
24.7
27.7
32.3
[/table]

Exact numbers may waver, as the price of silver was fluctuating while I collected this information. But these general observations reflect what I've seen from other silver buyers/sellers:

• War nickels bring nowhere near "melt value" when you try to sell them to large buyers. The 20% discount at Provident is actually the smallest I've seen.
• 40% silver trades at a discount as well -- again, the 6% discount here is smaller than I'm accustomed to.
• 90% silver trades very close to spot. Others may sell it cheaper than Provident, and probably pay a bit less for it.
• Dollars, even culls, trade at a significant premium to spot.

 

Thanks jeffb -
That's exactly what every bullionist thinking Ag "investment" needs to focus on: MELT. (-20% discount is analogous to MELT at a refiner too.)
Waaaaay too much imagination/hope that 'more hoarders at higher POS will always be eager to buy.' And the Greater Fool Theory is a dangerous fallacy in a beggared economy/market.

 

If you go to ebay you can get 2.50 - $3 per war nickel. I think for some beginning collectors it is a curiosity to some extent, obviously not hard to do the set.

If you try to go in bulk you will go below melt.

 

Agreed...the lower the purity the less the premium. For a 3% premium...you can do much better.