Gold/silver paper smackdown coming?

Gold/silver trend has been down in Feb since the peak, so I would assume there will be a drop in Feb yet again.

 

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This should settle it - from Bloomberg, January 22:

"...The duty on gold and platinum imports was raised to 6 percent immediately from 4 percent, Economic Affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram told reporters in New Delhi yesterday. A levy on gold ore, concentrate and so-called dore bars for refining will be doubled to 4 percent, and an excise tax on refined gold will climb to 5 percent from 3 percent, the customs said on its website. The tariff will be reviewed if imports moderate, Mayaram said.

Increased taxes may reduce demand in Asia’s third-largest economy after prices jumped 7.1 percent in 2012 as investors and central banks boosted purchases. About 80 percent of India’s current-account deficit, the broadest measure of trade, tracking goods, services and investment income, is due to gold imports, according to the Reserve Bank of India."

 

I found this to be pretty interesting... Not entirely sure how credible given it is from a silver bug website, I can't account for the accuracy of pricing or details and don't have a way to verify so feel free to look into it...

"With the Chinese New Year less than a month away, Ichban describes Chinese demand for gold and silver in Beijing as a tidal wave, and states that the demand for gold and silver is more intense than Thanksgiving/ Black Friday mobs in the US, despite the nearly 60% premiums retail dealers are asking for silver bullion!!"

http://www.silverdoctors.com/first-...ack-friday-style-mobs-scrambling-for-bullion/

 

That Chinese 'frenzied shopper mob' in that article above is clearly dressed for summertime. In Beijing now, temperatures are freezing.
Why so crazy Chinese shopper wear teeshirt in wintertime?! Kids want Gold, not computer? lol

Oh, and normal day buying Salt:

 

Let the smackdown beginith~
http://charts.kitco.com/KitcoCharts...rts_live_silver_ny_chart&utm_campaign=iCharts

 

Oh yes, the smackdown has begun. Zero Hedge thinks it's because AAPL tanked:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-25/what-happened-precious-metals

I don't know, but it would be nice to have a buying opportunity again around $20 an ounce.

It seems to bounce back up at around $30 lately though...

 

"Smackdown"? Because its down less than 2%?

Seriously, you know there are like 1000 pieces of information EVERY DAY at a minimum will affect the market price of silver. How ANYONE on earth could EVER say they know there is manipulation going on in such an environment is simply beyond me.

Is the Fed chairman stated he believed PM was overpriced and a danger to the economy, and then PM dropped 40% or something I will believe you. But really? A normal, tiny drop in a market in one day is being labeled a "smackdown"?

Btw, AAPL tanked because it was WAY overpriced, by a factor of hundreds per share in my eyes, and I have said so publicly on this board months ago. I have no clue what the heck that has to do with tiny PM pricing daily moves.

Dang guys.....

 

I just passed the message on. I have no idea where Tyler Durden got it from. I am just the messenger, and while the price is down I may pick up a few sheckles. I like to buy on the dips, but we haven't had any in a while to buy on, so maybe this is going to be a buying opportunity.

 

No problem, and not trying to pick on you sir. Just saying that you believe there is a nefarious, premeditated conspiracy to lower PM prices based upon one day's tiny price movement seems to be a stretch. How about the fact the market is up today and maybe people are selling PM to free up cash to go into equities?

Maybe a little more believable than a conspiracy, and I have absolutely no way of knowing if this is true either. I am just saying if you hear hoofbeats, think about horses not zebras.

 

No link handy at the moment, but I've read that silver demand in India is up, in part because of this, but also because gold has risen in price more than silver over the last couple years.

 

I am with you on this one. Smackdown is an overused term. As far as I can tell there have only been 3 of them in recent years. May 2011 (margin hike x5), October 2011 (margin hike), and then last year when Ron Paul held up the silver coin to Bernanke at the last high of $37/oz (coordinated selloff).

The silver chart over the last few days has been on a steady decline which seems to be because it was temporarily overbought to start the year off.

I like this explanation from Fast Markets (thebulliondesk.com where I usually get my price quotes):
http://www.fastmarkets.com/bullion-desk-news/tas251

 

Well I haven't looked into it yet, but I would say that the large banks like JP Morgan in particular dump so much paper silver on the market at one time as to make the price fall. This is how they have been keeping the price down. I think I have explained all this before so won't go into it again, but if you truely believe there is no manipulation going on in the silver market then nothing I say here will matter anyway. I guess no banks would ever do anything like that, just to make a buck... hrm... can you say Libor scandal?

Only time will tell, and I think the fit is gonna hit the shan this year. Apparently now the Swiss are asking for their 1040 Tons of gold back... http://maxkeiser.com/tag/gold-repatriation/

 

IMHO, folks who are spending their stash now for groceries or other immediate needs have missed the Main Message.

Don't look at what happened today, or last week. Most of the prognosticators are either fools or knaves.

When silver (or gold, if you can afford it) falls in price, BUY! And, it needs to be said: HOLD!! Do Not Doubt $2000-2500 gold, nor $40-55 silver relatively soon. Can you say Weighted Average?

Fear not, neither gnash yer teeth: Believe, and BUY.

End of Sermon, thanks.

 

Agreed. I have posted several times that I would only sell in the most dire emergency. The most risky "money," to stretch a point, is paper gold and silver; the next most risky, Federal Reserve notes, always at the mercy of hyperinflation when somebody very very big defaults...

 

A little market insight from central Ohio. Today I helped a buddy annotate a (coin) auction listing with prices and notes, and we took a long look at CraigsList too.

Plenty of junk silver around, maybe more than usual, and a couple of big sellers, obviously weak hands in the game. We counted about $22K in junk silver, rounds, and bars (at seller's ask, that is). He's going to the auction, I'm not. I did not see many gold eagles, actually just two fractionals. But the auction has 10 or 15 gold coins of various descriptions. He's hoping the attendees spend all their money on gold and leave the silver alone, LOL.

 

Howdy good people,

Nice discussion. I'm not much of a conspiracy fan. Are the pm markets manipulated? Of course they are - to the degree that anyone is able. It's human nature and to be expected. Any one of a number of large financial institutions are able to a greater or lesser degree impact the market in their favor. Cripe, if I was able I would and so would all y'all.

The long term fundamentals support both higher prices for all pm's. The central banks of the world are printing money with utter abandon in a race to debase their currencies. Most every gov't owes more than they are able to tax and to the degree they want to keep their promises, they have to monetize the debts. We've got Unfunded Liabilities of over $100 trillion (social security, medicare/aid, various trust funds, pensions, service on the debt, the war debt, etc.). They're trying to monetize as much as they can so hopefully, they can raise taxes and reduce benefits suffiently to prevent insolvency without imploding the currency in some hideous inflation. At least that appears to be the plan. WTF knows if it will work or not.

In this sort of situation, risk management dictates you own physical gold and silver bullion. I say dictate because even if you only give a finanical meltdown/hyperinflation a small probability - if it's significant the consequences would be so dire, that you really don't have much choice but to prepare to some degree.

I like to overweight silver to gold because it always seems to make greater gains for me. Indeed, the present gold/silver ratio is running ~1/52 and historically it's more like 1/15-20. Back in 1980 when they peaked it was ~850 for gold and 50 for silver (1/17).

I started investing heavily in pm's back in 2002/3 although I've collected coins for over 50 years. I did this because I'm a momentum investor. I look for trends that I can overweight in stock/mutual fund investments. Because I've collected coins and financed a degree in Econ with proceeds from the Hunt Bros bull run, I jumped on this rascal with both feet.

I've been riding this trend ever since. Every so many months, the trend pulls back. Think of it like a saw blade - it's jagged but the trend is tilting UP. It seems to be taking a breather now. So what. Have you noticed that ever time it pulls back it's not as far or for as long as all the touts tell us? Every time.

I surmise that this is because of the underlying demand for gold (and silver) that continues to set a such strong price support. This demand is something that's almost unworldly in its complexity. You've got CBs in some corners adding to their treasury gold. You've got investors. You've got survivalists (albeit selling some these days to buy Bushmasters). You've got industrial uses for both that are huge and growing. You've got more and more institutions adding a pm component to their asset allocations. You've got trading partners with so many gd greenbacks they want something else for a change.

Will someone figure a way to artificially drive down price of either gold or silver or both? Of course. Will the artificiality last? No. Never does. Captain Price will set things straight. You'll see it, however, in the disjoint between paper price and street price when the supplies contracts and the premiums sore. Come on folks, this is class econ supply/demand curve showing Price Controls. Either supply falls short or the 'price' get's adjusted via premium. If I think my AGE is worth $2000 and you're only willing to buy it for $1800. Sorry, it's not for sale.

And so it goes,

peace,

rono

 

I think that silver is good, but I have a hard time paying too much for it. I am being offered about $550 of 64 Kennedys at around 21 times face. I know it's pretty good, but I just have a hard time paying that much for them... I'll think about it. I'm thinking...

 

Buy the Kennedys, sell them to provident and.....PROFIT!

 

I'd prefer the smaller denominations of dimes and quarters, but if they were offered to me, I'd try my hardest to nail them. One benefit of Kennedy 50c, virtually no wear, no slicks, more for your money.

 

Hesitate not! Edited ~ B/S/T transactions-discussions should be on advertisement pages or by PM, not regular posts