Hi folks, Pat writes a lot for Numismatic News and owns the local coin shop where I've been shopping for around 30 years or so. I thought I'd link their website so that you could read his Liberty Outlook Newsletter - a pdf link at the top of the right had side of the page. It's a pdf file so I didn't know how else to share it. http://www.libertycoinservice.com/ I agree with much of what Pat says, although at times he can get a bit shrill. That said, notice towards the end where he talks about how shortages and delivery delays are staring to appear, particularly in the low premium bullion arena. He mentioned that it was starting to impact premiums. This is something we definitely want to watch out for. If you recall back a few years, real shortages developed for physical bullion and the premiums went nuts. Econ 101/102 classic case of of a market with price controls. Whenever they keep the legal price of something below what the market actually believes it should be shortages appear. Remember gas price controls under Nixon? All of a sudden, everyone is out . . . at least at the official price. It's been the same bloody thing with interest rates and credit availability. At 3-4%, bankers don't have a lot of available money to lend but if you want to pay 5-6% . . . well maybe they might find some. With bullion, the paper price get's driven down below what the street market feels it should be and duh . . . supply dries up. Why should I sell you my AGE for 1800 when I believe it's worth 2000? However, the premium is negotiable. Anywho, enjoy. peace, rono
Have bullion vendors have finally jumped on the gun peddlers' wagon, hype gubmint fear to push product yet? lol In the very short term at your LCS, there may well be a self-fullfilling "effect." Might be informative to get reports from the Europeans, South Americans and Asians in the meanwhile: the US Mint's share of the physical bullion mkt isn't such a huge deal. The 2008/9 "bullion" event, as I recall, was bogus: the premiums on Cdn Maples remained reasonable (although presumably higher than avg) as the "US Mint shortage" laid absurd premiums on AGEs, ~36% ro so. Back in Summer 2009, there were no shortages of Au Maples, period. (The eBay premiums for US vintage coin went higher too - that didn't last forever either.) otoh, when the very real and terrifying US inflation evntually/inevitably starts (c.2015? 2017?) I do believe PM premiums will be a/the leading indicator. I very much doubt it's begun now, however. That's premature at this point.
