Is this The Cliff

Yes, I am still bullish on PMs, and I believe the bull market is still intact. However, I thought it important to point out that the 1625 level [give or take a few buck since I looked at the chart and didn't calculate the number] is a very important support level for the bull market. A move below would be technically bearish, and a move above 1800 would be technically bullish. Now, the anti-gold forces, if they actually exist, can read a chart as well as anyone and might spend whatever is necessary to paint a bearish tape to create more temporary selling pressure. Nobody knows, or can know. It's just another tool in the toolbox.

Edit: Typo in the two posts above. I would say 1525 is the level to watch out for, and I think that's the number I threw out there in earlier posts. Sorry for the confusion that caused.

 

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Lol, yeah! Someone called me a PM bull! See Inflexion, I am not the bear you think I am.

 

Check out the 1525 level.

 

1625: here and there.

It's o.k., you can REVISE your call (firmly made, repeatedly.) We all make mistakes and can/should reassess any decidely wrong calls.

I definitely disagree anyone should hit the manic-button POG @1625, and that's NOT over 'The Cliff' IMO. It's approaching a buying opportunity, instead.

 

I don't want to revise my call. I just want to correctly state what it is. This is the chart I've been following for the past few months.

Edit: Actually, Juan, I believe you are correct that I earlier state 1625. Very careless of me and obviously not supported by the chart.

 

PM's are at a low I think. They may go lower, but come some time in January, they will rebound tremendously. That is what my crystal ball is showing.

 

Thanks.

 

You are correct, see post #45.

 

Another glaring mistake on Forbes? (Day 2) See stock photo.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2012/12/20/a-big-correction-for-gold-and-silver/

What are the BUY targets, Ag & Au?

 

Here is a wild shot. 3 month ago, RBY was at 3.80 and a 3 month ( Dec) option for 2.50 ( in the money) was about 1.50. Now 3 months later with the decrease in gold miners + a hazy and not very appropriate possible law suit has dropped the share price to $2.50 and a 3 month option for 2.50 is only .25/.30 ( bid-ask). If gold and miners rebound in the next 3 month back, and RBY even goes to 3.50, the option should make about a $1.00 at expiration. I know not very many will be interested in options. The share price might be more tangible for them. IMO. Not a financial adviser. I do hold RBY Do DD of course.

 

I also hold RBY. Unfortunately, Canadian law is so screwed up that nothing can be done without permission of the FNs. And in this case, RBY is even paying for the WFN legal costs to sue them. Amazing! But I expect the usual payoff to take place and the stock price will recover. I would also suggest that RBY is grossly mismanaged, but the quality of their asset still makes them attractive - for now.

 

I prefer majors who appear to know what they are doing for any kind of mining assets I wish to own. I mainly stick with companies like Rio Tinto or Southern Copper.

 

I owned Southern Copper at one time. My current interest is in a couple of juniors [MUX and RBY] and CEF. I'm more comfortable with CEF than with the majors, but it should be held in a tax deferred account because it is a PFIC. I like MUX because Rob McEwen made a lot of money for me at Goldcorp. He is one of the few honest men running a PM mining company.

 

Silver is bouncing on some kind of news this morning. The Mayan Apocalypse? The fiscal cliff? Who knows? We may have missed our chance to buy at less than $30. Or it may tank again. That might have been a buying opportunity. I was going to buy a hundred dollar bag of 64 Kennedy halves, but I may have missed my chance. I think he was willing to part with it at around $2200, but now that silver it up I have lost my bargaining position.

 

Missed our chance? Presumably you believe silver will go up a lot in price, otherwise why buy it? And if that's the case, does it really matter much whether you buy when silver is $29 or $31? Think about it.

By way of full disclosure, this is not a buy recommendation. I haven't bought any silver since it was $20.

 

silver is barely up, if you could get it for 2200 before you can probably get it for 2225 or 2250 now. is that really going to make a difference in the long run?

Who knows price may go down more, but it also may not Although if you are in it for the long term, now is as good a time as any I would think.....

 

Oh but the Paper-Bug sockpuppets on seekingalpha are already shrieking "Silver to $14!" - which is a laugh.
If we see that in 2013, the stock market will have plunged -35% too. Careful what you wish for...

On the vampire/zombie Silver > $80 ounce thread, I shared my best guess/ POS target. Bernuckle's latest pumping promise might signal something's amiss... so maaaaaybe there's anotherwhiff of deflation already? o.k. here's a reasonably perceived worst case scenario, IMO.... POS @ $18.-22. by April 2013.

That shouldn't shock anyone IMO; other bearishly-wise bullionists on finance sites are now calling a forward low POS @ $22./ozt ...without the world ending either. This is simply a 'know-your-risk' target; I think incremental BUYING @ 27 and under is a good opportunity - we'll probably see that in early 2013. Suppose next year (2013) looks like 1975 or 1976 - check those charts!

http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html


Don't forget: in Bull cycles, PMs can also go DOWN (or sideways-down) for a year or two; it's not always up-&-up.

 

Well I bought a 1/4 lb of silver yesterday and I said I hope this is the low, hit the button and wha la It started going up lol. We will have to see!! I bought for $30.10 an ounce I think.

 

'Dubai gold price slumps to AED187 as Christmas fails to cheer investors': http://www.zawya.com/story/Dubai_gold_price_slumps_to_AED187-ZAWYA20121226034907/
"Spot gold price fell about $13 an ounce to a low of around $1,647/oz in early trade this morning as lean markets saw the precious metal fall below $1,650 once again on Tuesday."

I don't think this is a holiday slump. Increased volatility appears to be linked to a shift in the forex markets ('Gold as a Cash Alternative') :
http://seekingalpha.com/article/108...ic-data-the-swiss-national-bank-will-not-like

I wonder what Jim Roger's target is? How low does he go? "If gold goes down – I hope I'm smart enough to buy more. If it goes down a lot, I hope I'm smart enough to buy a lot more," he said.

 

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