Do any think silver will go to $100/oz in the near future

medoraman-
Keep 'em coming! LOL Observations are key, but you still need a baseline.

fwiw, WSJ is CRYIN' for ad revenue (A recent ish of The New Yorker had an interesting piece on Murdoch's empire in crisis), so what other weird stuff is now advertized there?
Also, nobody's been buying PMs except us hoarder-types FOR YEARS ... hence, the dealers' oversupply of sterling (and gold coin, btw): premiums for you should be down, accordingly.

Only 'serious buyers' I see in the LCS are people w/ accents spending Greenbacks. Most Americans are broke, frankly; any junk (from granny's silverware to baby cups) they had to sell got sold already. So what's next tier up, 'collectibles/heirlooms' to be added to US PM exports: wedding rings and numismatic coins, from ~ 200 k mass-affluent Boomers' collections? There's a creeping poverty metric we really don't want to see... POS @ >$75?

 

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Is that a question or a prediction ?

 

I don't think it'll go up to $100 an ounce in the near future but if you listen to the doom & gloom people it's absolutely on it's way and we all need to be ready.

 

More an "if/when" statement, mikem2000. As in, 'thereabouts, and higher.'
If/when POS goes over $75, lots of folks will be eating cat food I'm afraid. Careful what you wish for!

 

I don't think there are enough "hoarders" to account for 12 straight years of higher prices for gold with silver tagging along with more volitility. A lot of internet coin sites are frequently out of various silver products. Five years ago or more that was rare. So it isn't correct to say nobody is buying. Someone obviously is.

 

But US coin & US bullion prices are NOT driving up global PM prices, cloudsweeper99. The ETFs and international demand are the reason. Look to BRICs and others (like Iran/"UAE") mopping up the bullion mkt now.

Retail Americans have been net sellers for years, and the USA became a net exporter this year? US Retail demand for bullion/PM coins has been drying up too! Ask at your LCS (soon to close? How many left, since 1992?) If you hadn't already heard, the coin-grading business of PCGS is contracting: http://www.cointalk.com/t217595/#post1575146

 

How do we know "retail americans have been net sellers for years"? Like I said previously, the US being an exporter of gold is not any more surprising than Kuwait being a net exporter of oil.

As far as Iran goes, I view this gold being "sucked up" by them as temporary. They are using gold imports as a way to circumvent international sanctions. At some point that gold will be used to pay for their imports, and the UN is considering banning gold imports into Iran currently anyway.

Yes, BRIC countries and others are strong buyers of gold, and have been for quite some time.

As for US retail demand drying up, then why has the past 5 years been the highest mintages of AGE/ASE? Are you saying AGE/ASE are all being exported? Or are you saying we are selling our junk silver/gold and trading it in for AGE/ASE's, but net net losing ounces?

As for TPGers, I am suspecting that SOMETHING will happen, either another round of loosening standards so dealers will stampede to "upgrade" their 63's to 65's, or the opposite will happen, some new "stricter grading, microchip implanted, photo stored on our database, blah blah blah". It happens periodically, and some shift always takes place "somehow" at TPGers that ups submissions again. I think CLCT's problem is more lack of authentication of baseball cards and comic books more than coins.

Anyway, just trying to clarify your answer sir, not trying to be argumentative.

 

Net net losing ounces, YES. (AGE/ASE product = a trifle, honestly.)
And Iran inhaled more Au via Turkey in 2012, than the US Mint has produced since 1999! That's just the tip of the iceberg...

The Boston Globe had an article on Metalor a year or so back; practically ALL that scrap got exported.

Also bear in mind: if you want to count this part of US institutional & retail demand, ALL Gold in GLD is held in London. It's NOT 'American.'

 

Then by derivative thinking, you would consider that the gold held by the Federal Reserve for foreign nations is really American Gold?

Since the GLD trust is managed by a multinational group of institutions and the GLD shares themselves likewise, why would it be worth a mention that it is stored in London.

 

Silver doesn't have to break triple digits to be a great play. The dollar might collapse before that. Anybody buying metal with the intent of making paper profits is doing it for the wrong reasons, and those are the people who inevitably end up selling, because they didn't get the quick turnaround they wanted.

I've been reading articles saying that metals are down this week because the Fed gave hard targets for when QE will end, even as they begin QE4 by continuing Op Twist without sterilizing the money - no more short term bonds to offload so it is outright debt monetization with new money now to the tune of $85 billion/mo. This is so backwards, because they are now buying 90% of all new Treasuries plus a good portion of the housing market, and there is just no way they can turn off QE without the floor falling out of both of those markets. It's just not going to happen, but thanks to market irrationality we can still buy on the dips.

I've long said silver is an end game play. I'm guessing gold will be more profitable than silver until such time as it supplants fiat currency. Until that happens there will always be efforts to keep metals down to eliminate competition. At such time as fiat currency goes the way of the dinosaur there will no longer be any need to keep metals down, and then we will see what fair value is, with prices measured in ounces, not dollars.

 

The auctions in my area are doing really well regarding silver. Modern commems. were $10-$20 over grey sheet. Every raw A.S.E. sells for no less than $5 over spot. Graded 69s and 70s are going for high end retail prices as well. (I was asking myself if some of those people ever get out to a show or a shop?) Aussie bullion seems to do well, especially the lunar calendar rounds. Pure silver rounds and bars don`t even last in the stores around here unless they`re marked too high.

I meet new people in the shops who are looking to invest silver and gold quite often, but I also see many people selling their jewelry as well. Every area will be different, but eventually I believe We will see more everyday people looking towards a more stable investment than stocks & bonds. (despite the hoopla around the 30 year bonds that We saw today)

I ask You this....Where else can one go for the long term investment? Bonds?....Let me know how You make out with that. 401k?....Better You than me. Stocks?....See previous comments.

I do however invest in other things besides gold/silver.....knowledge of things such as gardening, hydroponics, hunting etc. Some things gold/silver won`t buy in a crisis. But, until those fateful days arrive....make mine .999 fine.

 

I am just curious, for those who believe PM will be their salvation if the currency collapses, about why they believe it will be different this time? The last time our currency was under major stress the US simply passed a law making gold ownership illegal and bought it at a rate they dictated. Why does everyone believe, if such a situation should occur again, the US simply would not do the same, but this time with ALL pm?

I am a student of history, and strongly believe the powers that be behave in a predictable manner. We already have the US Supreme Court ruling any government can take any land for any reason, including to give it to a campaign contributor if they wish, so how hard would it be to just take PM? Problem solved for them.

 

I think once it breaks 50 it will be very interesting to see who times it right: when to sell. And who waits to the bitter end (trying to catch the falling knife) and ends up selling back down at 35-40 again. I predict it will be pretty tough for some who try to pick the top...60? 75? 95? ...before the inevitable correction.

 

I here You, and I would not put it past them to outlaw "excessive PM ownership" yet again. But one could argue that they can`t even come close to winning their wars.....drugs etc. How efficient would they be when it comes to people turning in their PMs? Door to door searches? Idk....I just can`t see the government eliminating PM ownership to the level that would satisfy them. But, who knows?

 

That whole line of thinking gets eerie considering the heightened 2nd Amendment arguments, and that so many gun guys are also into survivalist silver. I don't see door-to-door confiscation anytime soon.

 

But they wouldn't need to, would they? The point of making PM illegal would be to force everyone to be on the USD standard, not the trivial amount of money that would be generated. They wouldn't need to go door to door, since ownership would be illegal. Why would anyone wish to hold it? You couldn't ever sell it, you couldn't export it, it would be worthless unless you were a crafter. I have read in the 60's even a lot of coin dealers refused to buy gold coins thinking all gold possession was illegal.

I am not trying to make some survivalist claim or something like that. Just the opposite. I am simply asking those who put all of their faith in PM ownership if they have considered this possibility. Since the US has done it once, and government claims of ownership of everything today is at an all time high, I simply do not think its much of a stretch. Look how they are STILL pursuing Norfed sales. The danger in the government's eyes is ANY alternative form of currency, they simply will not allow it. If high inflation hits, and people DO start trading PM back and forth, I believe this is an extremely high likelihood scenario.

Just something to mull over, and yet another reason to consider being diverse in your holdings.

 

The currency was not under stress in 1933 because it was gold and silver based. The reason the government at that time, made gold ownership illegal was because once they forced the people onto fiat, it then gave the government the power to intervene in the economy. i.e. They could now devalue the currency (at any time) and use the proceeds to fund vast expansions of government programs and fight wars.

The very first thing FDR did when the gold was seized was to devalue the currency, by $ printing, so that gold went from $20/ounce to $35/ounce. It was a huge transfer of wealth from the people to the federal government. FDR used this money to fund his depression era agenda. They have been doing this ever since.

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Now that we are at the other end of the fiat lifetime, the question becomes what happens to gold & silver when fiat goes belly up.

 

Exactly! That was the clear subtext - and long-discussed point, at least as far back 2009 - for the unaudited "German Gold" purportedly held in the NY Fed. We'll see how that plays out, eventually.
http://www.silverdoctors.com/german...intensify-as-fed-refuses-to-allow-inspection/

I believe there's Gold in the NY Fed vaults, but conflicting claims mean someone - perhaps LOTS OF someones - will be left holding paper promises and nothing but. Some Gold bugs suppose that revelation will be the Zero Hour, when decades of accounting chincanery comes down to a game of musical chairs ... and POG does its inevitable moonshot.

GLD is a share-scheme. WorldGold Trust Services, LLC is the sponsor of the Trust, BNY Mellon AssetServicing is the trustee of the Trust, HSBC Bank USA, N.A. is the custodian of the Trust, and StateStreet Global Markets, LLC is the marketing agent of the Trust, or the Marketing Agent. Retail share investors have no claim whatsoever to the underlying Gold; GLD is therefore a synthetic instrument, not even a factional 'investment in Gold.'

Because the prospectus reaffirms many times the Gold is enitrely subject to LBMA (English) authority. The prospectus clearly states

Just as Gold held in Switzerland is Swiss Gold, US investments in GLD don't count as American Gold ownership. That's the London cartel's Gold - no one else's.
(Even IF we might consider that 'PM allocation' in US investment portfolios, GLD remains something of an accounting fiction.)

 

That's exactly what I said in response to your claim that...
"Also, nobody's been buying PMs except us hoarder-types FOR YEARS

Read more: http://www.cointalk.com/t218514-2/#ixzz2F4Tx4fpz"

Obviously your statement is wrong because someone other than hoarders is buying.

 

Oh, to the OP, no I don't think silver will hit $100 in the near future. I think if it breaks $50, $75 may be in sight very quickly, but I feel it would correct back below $50 before going to $100.