It's been a few days (and thus the buying options are few now), but since I have not seen this mentioned in this forum, here is the 'news': http://www.mint.ca/store/news/a-nat...002&parentnId=600004&nodeGroup=About+the+Mint and a purchase page: http://www.mint.ca/store/product/1912.jsp?campaignName=War1912&pId=1200010&lang=en_CA Thoughts/ridicule? This is the first gold I've bought in a long long time since I'm more a silver bug. ---- Here's the list of what has been put up for grabs: Premium Hand-Selected 6-Coin Set (140 sets - $12,000 each) Premium Hand-Selected 1912, 1913 and 1914 $5 single gold coins (291 coins - $875 each) Premium Hand-Selected 1913 and 1914 $10 single gold coins (4,869 coins - $1,750 each) Hand-Selected 1912, 1913 and 1914 $5 single gold coins (5,050 coins - $500 each) Hand-Selected 1912, 1913 and 1914 $10 single gold coins (18,950 coins - $1,000 each)
From your link: "While a small number of coins bearing the date 1912, 1913 or 1914 have remained in the hands of individual collectors, the bulk of these coins were kept out of circulation at the beginning of the First World War as the government accumulated gold reserves to help finance the war effort. Today, the Mint is offering these historical coins in highly exclusive premium hand-selected sets of all six denominations produced from 1912 to 1914, in addition to selling single coins in premium hand-selected and hand-selected quality." First thought? This is a near-term disaster for "numismatic value" to the "small number of individual collectors" already holding these issues. Longer term, the release might increase interest, possibly. What's the breakdown of the OTHER 88% coins in the Cdn Mint hoard, and when's the next dumping scheduled? It would be interesting to track these coins' values as more are dumped/released. I suppose that for most gold coins the race to bullion (value) is still on, unfortunately.
Spot on. Mind the pun... So far as is known today, these will be the last of the 1912-1914 gold from government hands. But in truth, you just can't know what sort of secret stash may be waiting to disrupt numismatic populations. There have been plenty of examples which underlines the speculative nature of that part of the 'hobby'. Heck, with collectibles, such premiums come and go in cycles anyway - something that's more about mood than rational, but still parallels other more traditional investment risks. Precious metal content does put a squeeze on collectible premiums as they rise. I suspect that they drop both in percentage and absolute value terms to the point of being zero at some relatively high level of bullion pricing. What I'm getting at there is the idea that 5K for an ounce of Au would clobber the premiums on a lot of coinage. But the inverse is a bit more interesting to think about - the idea that collectible/unique qualities can put a 'floor' of sorts on the down side risks of the very same items.
avr5700, I agree with this but don't know where/how that floor rises/falls with currency depreciation. If I sound very bearish on numismatic value, I'm not per se. I'm just uncertain not sure how to plumb the depths, with the enormous demographic shift here (in the USA, and in Canada ...to a lesser extent?) I'm still convinced that Late 20th C. 'numismatic value' for most US coins was wildly inflated and largely a chimera. Just as APMEX sells "numismatic" coins on their 'Bullion" section, we need to carefully study exactly what happened in the biggest North American and global coin mkt. If "numismatic value" is little more than a dangerously unstable belief-ratio held by a dwindling number of hard-pressed collectors, it's to be DISCOUNTED MORE yet. I'd be too presumptious to say "As in the USA, so in Canada" and I don't know market-trend for Commonwealth coins at all. But I'm bullish on BRICs, fwiw.
There is a long term contrary side to that proposed dwindling number of collectors...less collecting/interest would make the 'easy' stuff even rarer, in fact that sort of 'ho-hum' attitude is exactly how 'sleepers' sneak into the mix. Is there a similar collectable market that is more predictable..say art, stamps, wine, Hummel figurines, gems, antique furniture, beanie babies ...etc.? Watch antiques road show or those market warrior shows to get a real feel for how these markets go in and out of style. It's especially interesting when a group of 'experts' assess an item and then the auction yields a small fraction of the price...it even seems more the rule than not in the shows I've seen lately. Audience/venue can be everything I suppose. The underlying value of the PMs is a big part of why I like this particular market, even though that is itself subject to considerable volatility. Basically, that bullion side of this is a sort of intrinsic insurance in my view. If I can somehow get a foot in both worlds - numismatic uniqueness and bullion...well, all the better! This OP coin set is a good example of such, but I think it's a long term play and do not myself buy items (even obvious easy turns like the 25th anniversary set from last year) for a quick profit. Even now I'm thinking about getting another $10 Canadian gold piece...if they would just sell out already, I won't have to continue arguing with myself about that!
