How big is the RETAIL PHYSICAL Gold mkt in the USA?

Not contracts, obviously. Not hedge funds, almost certainly.
How much Au (coin & ingot) is sold daily/weekly/monthly, to know whether US retail 'demand' or 'supply' is rising/falling?

Forgive me if this known to all, I'd love to see the links. Thanks!

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

I see this story, today:

http://www.commodityonline.com/news...mand-drops-30-yy-in-q3-wgc-51364-3-51365.html


Am I reading this correctly? Under 'Global Gold Market 3rd Quarter 2012 Review' US wholesale & retail demand for Bar & Coin, 10.5 metric tonnes 3Q 2012
http://www.gold.org/investment/research/regular_reports/gold_demand_trends/

 

I see the sales numbers in NN and they report AGE and ASE sales every week. I would say that's a proxy for volume direction, but I do not know off hand what % of bullion sales are AGE and ASE's.

 

From the WGC 3Q 2012 report, gold{dot}org link above:

US coin/bar demand is plunging (down -50% YoY; worst Qtr since the Crash); presume that's wholesale #s but anticipating retail demand.

 

Boy, almost half a billion dollars in gold for a quarter is labelled weak. I wonder how those on this board who claim the US does not own gold any longer feels about that statistic?

 

Also interesting:
Despite the exploding POG from USD$ 310 to > USD$1,688 (in 2011) global coin & bar demand also skyrocketed from USD$3.5 bln or 353 metric tonnes in 2002 to $77 bln or 1,487 mt (2011).
US coin & bar demand isn't so strong, up from 21.3 metric tonnes in 2002 to 80 mt (2011); a declining trend for US Gold is apparent.

As those #s are wholesale, it's not even clear what percentage "US retail buyers" are Americans ... or foreigners converting Greenbacks.

 

For 2011, 80 mts = 2,572,059 Troy Ounces sold wholesale(/ann.) or 214,338 (new?) Troy Ounce sold each month, nationwide.
For 3Q 2012, 10.5 mts = 337,582 Troy Ounces sold wholesale(/qtrly.) or 112,527 (new?) Troy Ounce sold each month, nationwide.

I know very few people buying Gold (besides the bullionists here.) Maybe all the HNW neighbors are quietly? Who are those coin & ingot buyers by demographic, I do wonder?

 

Of the people I know who buy gold and silver bullion, they are the following groups:

1. Coin collectors, or former collectors who know the value of owning PM
2. HNW individuals, but even they are pretty rare
3. Indians and SE Asians. I personally don't know any Chinese who do, but it would not surprise me in the least.

I do not know any turks personally, but I know they are the per capita worldwide leader in gold purchasing. My list is only of people I know in the US who buy gold and silver, (mainly gold). Its a risk, though, as Indians in the US are increasingly being targeted by burglars because of this known trait of buying physical gold.

Hope that helps.

 

Well medoraman, if there's "no Gold" ... at the 2011 "buying spree" of 0.00827 Troy Ounces per person/year (with no net population gain/loss) we'd finally have 1 Troy Ounce per person (311 million people) in the USA ... in 120 years!

I have no idea how much "US Gold" is in Ft. Knox or the Fed.

 

And I suspect the weighted %age ethnic breakdown in the USA probably approximates 'global consumption' for countries' coin/bar and/or jewelry demand.

 

So, how many 1968 Camaros are there per person in the US, or board feet of walnut, or alligator pelts? These, along with ounces of gold, most Americans simply have NO DESIRE to own.

Its always a dangerous argument when you start talking how many X are there per person, if most people do not WANT to own it, (they would like the money its worth, but do not necessarily wish to own that item). I can argue Sogdian coins are ready to zoom to the moon, since if you take how many sogdian coins there are in the US per person you would probably get .0000000001 per person. Just a little more demand will make it spike, right? Problem is, no one WANTS THEM.

 

Well YES of course. But there's certainly NO BUBBLE IN GOLD when - as far as I can tell - hardly ANYONE here owns any... yet.

I suppose the (minuscule?) US bullion market is nearly saturated with product, awaiting further entrants. In other words, the growth of this bullionist mkt requires increasing volacity: the creation of new bullionists. Any putative 'bubble exhaustion' in US Gold won't drive POG lower (US retail demand is inconsequential to the global mkt) - but it should decrease higher dealer premiums in the USA. The US retail PM market must get more competitive: for US buyers, BETTER DEALS AHEAD!

I think Chinese & European buying is a different story, Demand pushing POG is outside the USA (retail coin/bar) or in the ETFs (also foreign.) That's my takeaway from the WGC report.
Regards!

Also: fwiw
For 3Q 2012, 10.5 mts = 337,582 Troy Ounces ... looking at the US Mint site I see total Gold bullion coin sales July-Sept at 138,000 t/o or 41% the reported Au coin/ingot sales. The WGC is reporting Thomson Reuters GFMS data; any idea WHAT accounts for the difference???
http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/american_eagles/?action=sales&year=2012#GoldTotals

 

I can only speak to the Asian markets with respect to gold, but I think the concept of "premiums" of 5%+ is a strictly US thing. In Asia, there's high liquidity for gold (since both demand and supply are readily available), which keeps premiums at a minimum. Since global supply chain management and distribution didn't affect premiums before, I can't see it bringing down premiums now. If anything, the lack of retail demand would have the opposite result of what you predict. With less demand (and therefore less reason for retailers to maintain inventory), premiums will go up while prices may go down on spot basis.

 

I suspect that most gold sales to individuals are not tracked. I've seen it first hand at my local gold bourse. It's strictly cash or trade. No records mean no taxman. They hold these 4x/year where I live.

 

Gold purchases and sales' in secondary markets are not tracked but their net effect is minimal since they negate each other out only exception is if gold is purchased or sold from overseas. But those are tracked by customs'.

 

^I'm not sure what that means since the entire supply of world gold changes relatively little from year to year. All sales are essentially gold moving from point A to point B.

 

China has also stalled in gold purchases, down 8% this quarter according to MineWeb. They use the term "toppled" which I find humor in, considering the demand had grown exponentially every quarter since 2009 or possibly even earlier. After a meteoric rise such as that, 8% doesn't seem like much at all. Their economy is slowing though, and it looks like they've finally evened out a bit. I don't know about the US specifically, but I would venture to guess most people just don't have money to spare for PM's right now with the job market as it is. I don't think that's likely to improve until we get deflation, since inflation prevents people from being able to buy as many goods and services which are needed to boost jobs, but that doesn't concern me for this bull market considering how many magnitudes more of dollars exist in non-tangible assets that may stampede into hard assets when the first giant hedger runs for the door.

 

What i mean is: Best way to track Gold consumption in US is by seeing how much gold is used for industrial, investment and jewelery purpose yearly. Not from tracking sales at an individual level.

 

The title of the topic says "retail gold market". Retail to me suggests individuals.

 

Yes, retail = individuals. Jjacks point duly noted, the buy/sell of existing stock (non-imported) is a wash but still indicative of Retail Demand.