Natural Disaster (Sandy) and the Price of PM's??

Unfortunately because of this crazy Hurricane that just went through New Jersey, New York et. al. Will the price of gold go up in around a month? Any thoughts or am I barking up the wrong tree? Any comments?

 

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not really sure how a Hurricane would effect the price of PMs, unless it hit a refinery~

 

I should think Gold Seasonality a bigger factor. November prices, typically higher. (And past performance no guarantee of future return!)
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article1523.html

 

Yeah, definitely not a guarantee that the price will go up but it usually does and since gold is supposed to be up anyways, it may just go up a tad more. Hate to sound like a vulture but I was thinking of selling, just weighing the options. I hate when I sell and within a couple of weeks blamo!! The price goes up.

 

Well there has to be a seller for every buyer of gold. They both think they know what is going to happen.

 

Having lived through the effects of hurricane Hugo (a real super storm) I can appreciate what the locals are going through. However while locally bad for the people living there, Sandy's effect on gold prices will be negligible to non-existent.

Sandy was not a "super storm" as the media has tried to make it into. The damage is bad in the NE because the infrastructure and practically everything else there is in such bad shape. It was worsened by the fact that development has extended practically into the Atlantic Ocean.

Gold prices will continue to be driven by the policies of Western governments and the reckless and fraudulent central banking system. That hasn't changed at all.

 

If crude prices do go up due to shortages yes gold can go up in short term.

 

I am no meteorologist but Sandy was one of the largest storm in terms of sheer size and not to mention it struck at worst time possible (full moon high tide). The tidal surges where the highest ever recorded in history in NY, CT and NJ.

 

Take it a step further, what if Sandy is only the beginning of things to come due to global warming? What will global warming do to the price of PM’s?

 

It was a Category 1 or less storm. Real superstorms are Cat 4-5 when they hit. These storms are exceedingly destructive and also spawn many tornadoes. The damage is bad in NY/NJ because they are not prepared for hurricanes.

 

Cat is measure of wind speed but barometric pressure indicates how much water the system mis pushing and Sandy was up there in that category.
And it is not the wind that did the damage it was the storm surge and unless you build 20 foot wall around the coastal regions there is no way you can prepare for that; Florida, Louisiana none of them have anything that can protect from this. Storm surge is not something you can take lightly and cost of upgrading the flood wall in NY would be tens of billions' to prepare for once in a century storm.


Courtesy: of http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=sandy-vs-katrina-and-irene

Diameter (extent of high winds)
Katrina: 400 miles
Irene: 520 miles
Sandy: 940 miles


Storm Surge
Katrina: 14 feet, funneling to 28 feet at New Orleans
Irene: 8 feet
Sandy: 12.5 feet


Top Wind Speed
Katrina: 125 mph
Irene: 85 mph
Sandy: 94 mph

 

So as not to turn this away from the numismatic discussion, I'll just say that it would be better if you were to properly educate yourself as to what makes storms and their damage more severe, especially in regards to coastal areas with the effects of storm surge. I find your callous and uninformed comments extremely disrespectful to those of us living through and dealing with this storm and its after-effects. It's much less about infrastructure and preparedness (of which I can assure you in general your comments are untrue) as it is about the mechanics of meteorology and physics.

Here's a couple to start your educational journey:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/
http://www.hurricanescience.org/society/impacts/stormsurge/

 

IMO OT but inland areas actually lucked out and it didn't turn into major rain maker like Irene as orginally predicted. As a result inland flooding was much less than antcipated. If that system had stalled and dumped rain (then turned into snow) in NY and CT it would greatly made situation a lot worse.

 

PA was hit pretty bad, a couple of my friends have been out of power for a week now.

 

Whether you find my comments disrespectful or not is irrelevant to what I said and I don't need to read your links.

 

Sandy passed offshore from my Mom's house in Myrtle Beach. They got a lot a rain and 30 mph winds. Nothing more. It was no super storm. Hurricane Hugo hit SC 90 miles from Myrtle Beach. They suffered major damage in Myrtle Beach from a storm that far away because it was a Cat 4-5. A real super storm.

Much of the damage in NY was due to the fact that so much has been built right up against the water but as storms go, it was really unremarkable.

 

Once again it is water it was pushing not the wind or rain that did the most damage even 12 foot storm surge all along the coast would have devasted florida. In fact at the start of the season they were fearing a scenario wear Cat 1 pushing a lot of water with size of Irene hits Miami (with multi story apartments right along the beach front).
Not even Katrina was Cat 4 and no hurricane can reach that level in colder water up north. In fact a storm like Sandy is much rarer than Katrina like storm as per meterologist in Weather channel

 

i don't want to diminish the scale of sandy, but i do have to say that i feel the damage caused has just as much to do with the geography of the affected area as it does the scale of the storm. in the case of nyc, the storm surge was 12' high because of the combination of the wind speed/direction and the bottleneck created by the land masses.

having said that, i don't want to get into the middle of the "my storm was bigger!" debate, because i'm not an expert and i don't have a horse in this race. so please, put your tape measures away guys.

now, to get back to the topic, gold started monday morning around $1,713, ticked up a bit tuesday and wednesday, and then dropped off to around $1,677 by close of business friday. i'm no market expert, but that tells me that if there were any effects on the price of gold caused by sandy, they were corrected within 48-72 hours.

 

I would like to qualify my first comment, about Seasonality versus 'the storm.' Please think through the OP's premise, it's a devastating critique.

First, ask: when did a 'storm' ever move the Price of Gold, in any currency at any time in history? I don't know the answer(s) but that is very germane to the OP's question.
I'd wonder any major wrecks of Spanish galleons of the Flota de Indias (for example, on July 30, 1715?) might have then moved money markets in Europe. (Storms, not drought/famine.)

In modern times, I doubt there's ever been a correlation (storm + POG). We can find out, looking at the ten deadliest US hurricanes and POG charts over the next 1-2 months. Consider likewise, the 10 worst typhoons in India and POG in Rupees. What is the truth? There's data and an answer, definitely.

Second, I am concerned that global warming has created GREATER storm surges on the East Coast. Real scientists confirm this; shame on the Flat-Earthers and let's tune out the denial lunatics. ("There is no global warming...edited ~Political!") In 1991, I endured 'The Perfect Storm' with 4-feet of water on the first floor (for a week) and 14 days without electricity. Very unfortunate for me and my family then, as for the NY/NJ folks now. But on the New England coast, these 'Once-In-A-Century' storms are now 'Once-In-A-Decade' or sooner. Time to get real about it, folks - we're all going to pay the price. Investors do need to think through the economic & financial impacts.

We've let our infrastructure rot away over decades. In 1992, 'Hurricane Andrew' hinted how bad things had gotten. In 2005, 'Hurricane Katrina' showed the world - the USA is NOT PREPARED. Since then, we've NOT confronted the challenges, NOT made real progress. So predictably, YES there will be ever-increasing, more costly and more deadly consequences of US coastal storms. Insurance companies have accepted this FACT, already warned those paying attention. The 'free market' is the proof, look for premiums to soar. Why am I not surprised that many folks in flood-areas still don't have flood insurance? Because most people are still enmeshed in 'Greatest Nation' denial-excuses and 1990s fantasy thinking, that someone else will foot the bill, FEMA will cover it with a big fat check, etc. And the truth? We did NOT prepare.

As a nation, we really need to stop lying to ourselves - this is NOT what happens in an affluent, well-organized, 'First World' country. Take a look, please.
http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/201...wer-still-out-for-millions-in-sandy-hit-areas
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57544755/n.y-n.j-governors-act-on-gas-shortages/

So my qualification, based on the above, is straight-forward.

1) POG has a major market in NYC. That market ought to be immune to 'the Weather!' as it always was.
2) IF - in the 21st Century! - 'storms' start to influence NY POG, then what does this say about our market & and our currency now?
3) "Got Gold?" LOL (My favorite answer, to almost every question.)

Undeniably it's a very damning fact, proof again global warming is all-too-real in Dollars & Sense. We really ought to get a grip on both at long last, IMO.

fwiw, I don't actually believe the Gold Market is now/yet vulnerable. I am more concerned the Stock Market might reflect this weakness, and the economy will suffer accordingly. But blamed on/caused by this weather, a triggered sell-off in most asset classes (including PMs) would prove that America has become very very weak indeed. Barring drought/famine or some cataclysmic event, that should never ever happen. Blame something ELSE!

The WEATHER. Good Lord: how sad & pathetic. Let's hope not.

 

Here's a table of the most deadly and most expensive US hurricanes. I notice 'hurricane seasonality' DEFINITELY overlaps with observed Gold Seasonality (typical Summer declines) but that seems coincidental to me. I don't know how that plays out, year by year, if there's a closer correlation. Hmmmm!

Kitco price charts are London Mkt, fwiw
http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html
[TABLE="width: 597"]

[TD="class: xl65, width: 65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 355, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 180, bgcolor: transparent"]Date (+4 week POG data)[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 65, bgcolor: transparent"]Category[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 130, bgcolor: transparent"]Deaths[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]9/8/1900[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]8000[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Okeechobee hurricane of 1928[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]9/13/1928[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]2500[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Hurricane Katrina of 2005[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]8/29/2005[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]1200[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Cheniere Caminada hurricane of 1893[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]10/2/1893[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]1100-1400[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Sea Islands hurricane of 1893[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]8/27/1893[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]1000-2000[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Savannah hurricane (1881 #5)[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]8/27/1881[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]700[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Hurricane Audrey of 1957[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]6/27/1957[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]416[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]9/2/1935[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]408[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Last Island hurricane of 1856[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]8/10/1856[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]400[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Great Miami Hurricane of 1926[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]9/18/1926[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]372[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]15[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Camille (MS/LA)[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]1969[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]256[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]24[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Agnes (NE U.S.)[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]1972[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]122[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]25[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Hazel (SC/NC)[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]1954[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]95[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]26[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Betsy (SE FL/SE LA)[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]1965[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]75[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]29[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Hurricane Floyd of 1999[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]9/16/1999[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]56[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Date (+4 week POG data)[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Category[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Cost (Bln USD$)[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Hurricane Katrina of 2005[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]8/29/2005[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]$105.84 bln[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Hurricane Andrew of 1992[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]8/24/1992[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]$45.56 bln[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Hurricane Ike of 2008[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]9/13/2008[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]$27.79 bln[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Hurricane Wilma of 2005[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]10/24/2005[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]$20.59 bln[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Hurricane Ivan of 2004[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]9/16/2004[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]$19.83 bln[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Hurricane Charley of 2004[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]8/13/2004[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]$15.82 bln[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Hurricane Irene of 2011[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]8/27/2011[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]$15.8 bln[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Hurricane Hugo of 1989[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]9/21/1989[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]$9.74 bln[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Hurricane Rita of 2005[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]9/20/2005[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]$11.8 bln[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Hurricane Agnes of 1972[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]6/19/1972[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]$11.8 bln[/TD]
[/TABLE]