Where all those predictors of silver price?

From what I interpret from reading SLV's chart is that there is a strong base at 32.-+ and the key resistance that needs to be broke is roughly $34 (approx 36 spot price) and if that happens I do believe we will likely see 40-50 again in the coming months. One key indicator is the Parabolic SAR, which flipped today giving indication that a higher price may here soon before it goes back to a support base level of 32-+
SLV's shares are usually about a point off from spot.

Other key indicators:
RSI is at 68 with plenty of room to move into the powerzone< most traders don't start taking profits 74-80 that range would put the price roughly around $37-40 before the run is over.

The 200ma and The 50ma crossed friday. bullish

Accum Distribution is also laying flat after a small little upchurch last week.

One other key element to keep in mind is that the latest market munipulation that took the price back to 25 from its original run up to $50 is that there were several large firms that were shorting HEAVILY if they are now covered than the market manipulation will simply cease and the market could correct itself possibly continuing far beyond the initial run to $50

All in my opinion.

 

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Ok, then I can agree with you and perhaps I misinterpreted your post. I don't think it will happen immediately either, but it's like a rubber band always pulling the price back toward the cost of production, so who knows!?

 

My prediction on silver this past summer was that it would increase again this Fall as we get closer to further QE and the presidential election, and from there it would depend on many factors. I also joked not to underestimate the impact of doomsday preppers on silver demand as well...this one backfired. One thing I have noticed though is that we seem to have a floor of $25 and a ceiling of $35 at least in past few months. TC

 

My apologies. I did not mean to imply any such thing. All of what I've written about supply and demand working itself out has been in reference to long term pricing.

 

Actually, here's what you wrote:

That sure seems to me that you were of the belief that some producers could be withholding silver in hopes of higher prices, and this would explain why producers wouldn't be willing to sell for less than full market value. I simply asked "What if they believe prices will fall?" Wouldn't it make sense for them to sell quickly?

When you start calling people "ridiculous" and talking about "Captain Obvious", don't be surprised if some people take it personally...

In the end, I think we can get along. I believe we can find common ground in a reasonable assumption that silver is not going to plummet to $20/Oz overnight.

IMHO - When, and if, it ever gets down to $20/Oz depends on a great many number of things, but somewhere < $20/Oz is where the market will push the price in the long term, barring any sort of other significant influences like a economic crash, hyperinflation, the cost of energy skyrocketing, a tremendous surge in demand, etc.

 

Sorry, I missed this one from a while back.

If you get offended when you believe I'm trying to put words in your mouth, why would you do it to me?

To a very limited extent, that is what I'm saying. What people are willing to pay for silver today is primarily what is driving the price of silver. But only because the current market since the market price is unnaturally high such that virtually anyone in the mining business can earn a profit. When it comes back down to a reasonable price, then the cost of production will have something to do with selling price in that those who can't extract it for a profit will stop. It could (however unlikely) continue downward until no producer could earn a profit and everyone would stop, but as long as there's still a demand for it, then the price will rise to where some producers can earn a profit. If those producers can't produce enough to keep up with demand, then the price will rise more.

I did not say that overall the cost of production has nothing to do with selling price, only that it isn't the driving factor in today's prices.

 

My prediction on silver is that I can't predict the price of silver but that over the immediate future the probability of gain seems to be higher than the probability of loss.

 

Right. Remember, though, there are two very different "costs of production". The first one is the total costs, the costs of opening a new mine. When this cost is exceeded you start seeing new mines planned and opened. The second cost is the marginal cost to keep a mine open. This is much lower, and does not include the up front costs since they are now sunk costs. As long as marginal costs are covered, you will not see decreases in production. Once prices exceed total costs of production, you will see mine expansions.

Making this even more complicated is the fact so much silver production is a byproduct of other metal production, primarily copper. This makes the analysis even more complicated since as long as copper is profitable, this byproduct production will continue regardless of market prices.

Never said it was clean or easy, just saying generically cost of production is where nearly all commodities get pulled to. "Cost of production" is just a messy number, especially for silver.

 

Well, as long as we're making things complicated, and since you brought up the topic of marginal costs...

The extraction of silver will continue as long as it is profitable to to extract both the copper and the silver. In most mining operations, silver is extracted from ore that is already above ground for the extraction of copper or other metals. But it still costs money to extract silver from that ore. So... As long as the marginal costs of extracting silver from that ore leaves enough room for profit, then they'll do it.

 

I value your opinion on this forum. TC