Is silver going to dive?

I just pick up a bit here and there- is the following true?
Ag mining surplus increasing supply and industrial use is down reducing demand. Also investors are cautious and strong dollar suppresses price.

 

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Do I want silver to dive, of course but thats me being greedy since I want to buy a ton of silver cheap.

 

As long as it doesn't dive into the shallow end, one can hurt themselves doing such a thing.

 

I'm personally hoping for a gradual descent down to $4, whereupon nobody will want to buy silver because they all assume it isn't worth anything. It should stay at $4 for at least 1 month so I can buy all the silver I could ever want, followed by a gradual ascent to $100. After that, it should continue to keep pace with inflation for the rest of my years.

Is that too much to ask? I don't think so...

 

Here you go, this is a great link to silver supply and demand. Demand only ticked down slightly in 2011, but the general direction for demand still looks like it is rising a bit. http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/

Will silver dive? I would say no, it already has already done that. I would think more along the lines of drifting lower to around the $22 mark

 

I would just point out that even though the Silver Institute is just about the only place to get this type of information, a lot of it is questionable. A lot of silver is transacted in private transactions that are not reported, and nobody really knows what the correct numbers are. One tip-off is the way they plug their supply and demand numbers to balance. You can probably google the comments of others about the problems with the Silver Institute numbers.

 

I don't ever see it diving short of another financial scare. If Germany bails Europe out, US stabilizes, and China starts growing again, I simply see people yawning at the idea of buying silver. That along with a couple of new mines hitting production and I think it will put slow steady downward pressure on silver prices.

Oil is much higher than 10 years ago, so I don't think we could ever see $4 again. However, it woudl have to go down to $15 or so for quite a while before mining production would curtail, so I could see prices drifting down to there.

PM has been a place to invest speculative money. Find a more interesting investment and see how PM will quickly become a yawner.

Just my view.

 

As much as i would love for sliver to dive to like $10-14@Oz, I can't really see it going below $20-$24 in 2012

 

I completely agree for 2012. My post was talking about a 3 year timeframe approximately, just for clarity.

 

My bad, within three i can see it taking a dive, don't know how i missed the 3 year thing.

 

You didn't miss anything, it was my fault to not say that in my original post.

 

even if it gets down to 20 - 24 I would be ok with that so i can stock up.

 

Detecto is going to be all over you!

 

Everybody always wants a second chance in investing. But this rarely happens. If silver drops a lot, it will probably happen because of a change in the fundamentals that could keep prices low for a very long time.

 

Its the opposite. If the economy picks up, silver will be in such high industrial demand that it will rise through the roof. Unless we run into a complete worldwide depression, I can not see silver going below $100 an ounce within the next 5 years. Higher than that, industry might be hard pressed to continue to use it without finding an alternative, as difficult as that will be.

 

How much more will it go down do you think? It's 26.89 at the moment.

 

A big +1 on that. Silver has had its day in the the sun. Congrats to all that bought cheap then sold, but if you missed it, move on......

 

I would just add for clarity that I'm not recommending the sale of silver, although my personal maximum buy price has always been $20. I think the bull market in PMs is still intact [gold is probably better], although the percentage gains from here will probably not match the last decade.

 

Well if does dive near the 12 ft deep section, then I hope I have a pool size full of money to buy more.

 

As I've said in other threads (when silver was heading to $50 and I was the only sane voice left on CT), I believe silver is fairly valued @ $18/Oz...so, yes, silver continues to fall...(jmho). :thumb: