Guess the Mintage of the 2012 San Francisco Two Coin Proof Set

The average will not hold. The sales will be less than 250k.

 

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That's what I'm hoping.

 

Traditionally that’s true, orders dwindle each day, however, with this issue there’s a lot of people sitting on the sidelines watching the counter. If sales are considered low the last day, orders could be extremely high that day, maybe as many as the first day or more.

 

I hope that happens. If everyone does wait until the last day I think the Mint site will fare a lot worse than on the first day of ordering. This might put a fundamental limit on how many can actually be ordered on the last day. That being said, I'm gonna guess 385,208. That's 85,341 for day 1 and day 28, then 8,251 on day 2 to 26. The 8,251 is 67% of the current daily average of 12,315 to account for the drop-off in orders.

 

Well, I'm revising my guess, too. I originally guessed 600K+, but I think with what it is right now, that it might get to 300K or so. So my new guess is 303,890.

 

I'm hoping to get two, but have been waiting. Thinking I will order at the end of the month. But I could go down to just one set. I don't know. That price of 149 is a bit of a sticking point for me. I thought it would be a bit less.

 

Test

 

I know I'm late to the party and all, but how about 323,232?

 

Alright PeacePeople, this is a bit like buying a lottery ticket after the first half of the numbers have been picked. I'm going to have to add 1 million to your guess. Your new estimate is now 1,323,232. Good luck!

Just kidding.

 

In order to keep this from becoming like an election in Russia, "official" guesses should probably be limited to those with a timestamp before noon on June 7th.

 

But the sales window closes at 5PM eastern time.

 

I am going to stick with my guess on 5/28 (post #4). :smile TC

 

If the current trend keeps up, they may end up with a final mintage of under 200K.

 

That would be amazing, if it happens. There's no way I would have guessed that low. I wonder what the actual reasons are. Maybe we will see a resurgence.

 

I'm in for 3 sets ~ that's it ! But it is amazing that the total sold is so low, maybe people are more focussed on summer vacationing and not coins.

 

I hit the eject button on my two orders (cancel box) after just two days.
Don't know why...just didn't feel like foolin' with 'em.

 

Still have 13 days to re-order ~

 

http://mintnewsblog.com/2012/06/san-francisco-set-offering-at-midpoint/

 

I remember reading before these came out that the price would be evaluated weekly based on silver price. I wish the price would drop since silver went down this week. I don't think they will lower it though. That would probably be one heck of a backlash they would see from people who already bought. I haven't bought one and am still leaning towards not getting one. I was guessing 500,000 at first but thinking 250,000 at best.

 

250,000 looks like thats where were heading.