Gold price up or down the closer we get to election?

Do you think the price of Gold will move up or down the closer we get to the November elections?

 

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All things being equal, higher oil should equal higher gold prices.

Of course, in life as we know, all things aren't equal. I will let others pontificate on possible manipulation.

Chris

 

and we all know who that is on another note I need to go out and but some tin foil to make a hat...

 

It's pretty simple really. If there are more buyers than sellers, it will go up. If not, it will stay the same or go down. Problem solved. No need to thank me.

 

Idk, with so many different opinions and speculations i think the only thing thats predictable is the unpredictable

 

Well that only affect the production side of thing it is the demand that dictates the price of gold, with markets going up you have $$ money from PMs to equities.

 

I agree, but what is known? Just incremental supply costs should be up. Everything else is speculation, so that is why I left it at the little that was knowable.

 

If it doesn't go up, it'll go down. Or stay about the same. I just hope I'm not wrong.

 

^ That reminds me of this quote by doug collins.

“Any time Detroit scores more than 100 points and holds the other team below 100 points they almost always win.”

 

The biggest things outside of basic supply and demand are keep an eye on what's happening in Greece, Spain and if the European Union starts losing members. The second thing is something I found out from my coin dealer. Mining is predicting gold and silver shortages as early as 4th quarter this year. He said look for $50 silver and 2K gold end of summer start of fall unless more veins or large strikes of the metals are found. When consumption is the highest we may be over exhausting our resources. Sound familiar?? Oil? Trees and lumber? Anyone? lol.

 

my opinion is it could go up from what europe said earlier "central banks indicate further monetary action. “If the Fed reinstitutes quantitative easing measures" meaning hang on if the fed decides to listen to europe...

or is could go down if we get that recession that the ECRI has been saying...

 

If you assume the long term bull market is still intact [and I believe this is the case], then the probability that prices will be higher is greater than the probability that prices will be lower. To use a Yogiism, predictions are hard, especially the ones about the future.

 

The thing about markets is they are and always have been a state of mind. Regardless of any facts we have or how good we think our theories are, the markets will do what they will do. Even if we knew today all of the answers to the variables that might determine the price of gold 7 months from now, there is still no guarantee we could accurately predict where gold will be trading then relative to today. All we can say with certainty is we certainly don't know and anything else is just a bunch of keystrokes. On the other hand, if a person enjoys parlor games, guessing market direction is probably as good as any.

 

Assuming the upcoming dog and pony show, aka the 2012 US presidential election, will be a choice between Romney & Obama, then I don't think it will make one iota difference in the price of gold or silver. About the only change that could happen at the White House due to the election will be in the menu and possibly the decor.

 

Marc Faber recently said he thinks there is further downside in gold, but I do not expect to see it below 1500 again. By November I think we will be above 2000 and probably more like 2200. The assumption that the price cannot go up because it's an election year is based on the assumption that the elite want the current president reelected. I do not believe this is the case, because there has been a lot of negative publicity around the birth certificate lately, and because the Keystone Pipeline was not passed at first, meaning he is not playing ball until his arm is twisted, and because Goldman Sachs is the #1 campaign contributor for Romney. Gold prices rising would support a GOP candidate, and my gut says that's part of the plan anyway. Besides that, even though the Pan Asia Gold Exchange got kiboshed, there is going to be an alternative nonetheless that will usurp COMEX dominance this summer and provide an online metal exchange for all Chinese citizens. Also, there is no way the Fed is getting to November without QE3 unless they're OK with another 2008 scare, but that would probably hurt reelction chances anyway so we'll have to wait and see. Longterm, inflation is required to keep this boat afloat and to keep paying the bills on time. Deflation means default, in which case you will want gold and silver anyway because they can't be given a haircut like paper assets.

 

Has anyone else noticed that Faber is wrong a large percentage of the time, but is still "famous?"

 

Keeping the dollar up is more in the governments interest . The gold market can be manipulated through the fed. They have more gold than Fort knox.
Keeping the dollar as a reserve currency will be a real slight of hand. If we were taking steps to look like we were cleaning up our physical house we might get a pass. Not doing anything but anger our allies we get little or no support. China and Japan trade currency to currency. As does Russia and China , and some south American countries ( Brazil ) are lining up to cause us some real pain INFLATION !

Pep
I have been busy taking care of my wife the last year. Big 'C" came to visit then left for five years , now head surgery as all surgeries leave you with less than you started.

 

Isn't that everybody on the MSM? I'm not a big Faber fan, but he is rather outspoken about gold.

 

If Obama is polling higher than Romney PM's will rise. If he is reelected I think a big rise from the speculators. If Romney polls higher and gets in I think it will be a buying opportunity.
Edited due to political opinions/speculation. Please read forum rules
But long term I am bullish on PM's because I don't see an end to the money printing.

 

Miners are getting hard right know GDX down over 20% in last 3 months thanks in part to shrinking profit margins and inability to find new gold.