2012 Silver Panda -- Once Again Guestimators Blow It

I'm an avowed prediction-scoffer and believe they are basically useless. I just wanted to share the latest blown opinion of which I am aware. Over the past few years, the China Silver Panda has increased in mintage from 600,000 to 6,000,000 and then a projected 8,000,000 this year. Over the past few months, I have encountered those who have poo-pooed collecting them anymore because of the increased mintage and a corresponding alleged decrease in premium.

Well; guess what? The premium for the 2012 Panda is greater than it has ever been for a newly-released regular Panda issue. The better dealers are selling them raw for about $48.00. That is currently about a $16.00 premium. Last year at this time, we were able to purchase them for about $43.00 and silver was $36.00 an ounce.

I think this situation brings home 2 important points. First, opinions and predictions are pretty much worthless. It doesn't matter what we know, what we think or what we think we know. What is going to happen is going to happen regardless. Second, mintage is not the most important variable in the coin game -- DEMAND is.

Time for me to get some Pandas.

 

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$48 seems high. I've seen these for $10 over spot. I do think demand is growing and is playing a big part though. Still, I'd rather pay the extra $5-10 and get the 2010 pandas with a much lower mintage. Ultimately if the 2012 design was better I'd be buying more of them regardless, but they obviously aren't for stacking with these high premiums, and if I'm going to pay a premium I want low mintage. JMO.

 

I am not sure what to think of this high premium for the 2012 Panda. Perhaps they are in great demand in China, or the Chinese government is selling them already at a significant premium. Who knows? I guess it is time to buy. TC

 

Thats quite a jump in the mintage. I think those premiums are really high.

 

For there to be demand the chinese economy need to keep roaring and PM prices need to be strong what will happen come Summer time is anyone's guess...

 

I believe it's worth mentioning that this 2012 panda is a Year of The Dragon Panda.The last Dragon Panda was 2000.
The 2000 Panda is so valued for a number of reasons. Including that the milenium is um..."super cool"? to the Chinese.
And the Chinese also freak out about year of the dragon...

 

I've order 1 2012 panda, but now I'm thinking of ordering more since I noticed it selling out at many vendors I visit online.