$140 silver prediction

I do see your point InfleXion. I am a silver investor nonetheless I just dont expect it to go to $140 an ounce in the next few years.

 

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Everywhere if you were reading them. The housing bubble was the most overreported bubble that was warned about before it popped in history. Many books, thousands of articles were all written by economists proving the unsustainability of the prices. Anyone asking where were the warnings simply was not reading about the subject during this timeframe. My MBA was specializing in derivatives, especially CMO's, so I was reading these articles out of this curiousity.

I view both technical analysis and economic predictions the same, using historical information to predict the future. Economics of course is harder since its 1000% more intricate than plotting the price of one thing. However, the limitation of both is future unknowns which will move both significantly, and of course are unknown today.

 

If you want the news (Fair & Balanced), you need to watch FOX News.

[video=youtube_share;63siCHvuGFg]http://youtu.be/63siCHvuGFg[/video]

 

But the counter argument was at the time house prices always went up historically so essentially even if there is price correction it will be quick and the good times will continue again. But what they didn't factor is demographics in America are changing and population growth is stabilizing.

 

In other words, predictive "economics" is nonsense even though the purveyors will put forth they know what they are talking about. At best it's gibberish and a waste of time. This is what I said earlier.

 

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Hits the nail on the head!!!

 

+1 yakpoo i was thinking just the same thing but i cant find videos for crap!

 

And your hairdresser was right!

 

Must be a full moon...

I would just add that all investing is about judging probabilities. When the probability of gain seems to outweigh the probability of loss [preferably by a wide margin], you should invest. But predictions are fairly worthless.

 

Never believe anything.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkAtUq0OJ68

This was very easy to find, disputing "fair and balanced"

 

I actually also agree that technical analysis can't accurately predict anything, but judging probabilities requires some sort of technical analysis too. A probability of gain outweighing a probability of loss is just like a buy signal. Whether there is a specific prediction or not doesn't really make a difference.

What I like about technical analysis is that it's kind of a visual mathematical puzzle, a game. My reasons for liking silver are entirely due to supply/demand and monetary policy, not charts though. I do like Hubert Moolman's method of explaining in detail why he thinks what he does, even if it is isn't necessarily reliable. Too many analysts just expect people to believe them because they say so.

 

You could put a recording device in a vehicle that recorded position, velocity, acceleration, direction vs time of day and over time build up a profile that would predict where the car would be at any moment in time in the future. The exact same analysis being performed on those financial charts would apply here. Of course this works until it doesn't. The chart doesn't give any indication of changes that will affect it such as the driver losing his job or anything else affecting the driver's desire to drive, the effects of an automobile accident, vehicle breakdowns, etc etc. It would be folly to attempt such a study.

 

I agree it isn't science. That said and human nature being what it is, when a stock [or commodity] has been going up in price and is still going up in price, it ususally continues to go up in price, at least for awhile. So technical analysis when used with proper exit procedures is still a valid investment technique.

 

Well said. I would simply add the caveat, "all other things remaining the same". This is where people in my view get tripped up. They get into technical analysis but take their eyes off the big picture. Global, big picture news will change the game, but many on wall street are only thinking about the micro so never see this macro action upsetting their technical analysis universe. This is EXACTLY the point Buffett was referring to when he said his greatest asset is he lives in Omaha, not NYC.

Chris

 

For a person using technical analysis, even knowing what is going on in the world can compromise the method. Everything that is known is already in the price/volume data. Any additional information will only encourage the person to deviate from a set methodology. Perhaps that is why many people who say they use TA fail.

Even when I use value investing techniques, I try to ignore the macro picture and focus on buying quality companies at a bargain price.

 

So are you saying if you are shorting oil and a missile flies from Tehran to Oman that this little tidbit of info should not make you reconsider your actions? I don't understand how NEW information should be ignored. I understand the point that all current information is priced into a market.

Regarding value investing, its a different animal. Yes, all information is in the market, you are just looking for those instances where either negative information is being given too much weight, good information too little weight, or the market is just not recognizing innate value appropriately.

 

If someone was using TA properly, they would be stopped out or could hedge the position with a long. I have no experience in the commodities market and I don't short stocks so this is something someone else will have to answer. Trend following techniques involve taking small losses on a number of positions and large gains on some positions.

For value investing, I would try to ignore the news or use it as a buying opportunity if the stock of some high quality companies dropped in price. I don't invest based on news and I've never seen that technique practiced successfully by anybody. What seems to work is looking for opportunities to buy high quality companies when they are available at a discount and holding them until they are overvalued.

 

I don't think silver will hit $1000 in my lifetime, but, what if a use was found for silver that hasn't been thought of yet? Something that would drive demand through the roof and you couldn't get your hands on enough of it. That might do it. Google silver and peroxide and you'll Find that You can make a jet engine by mixing silver with 90% hydrogen peroxide. Fill up your car with peroxide, then drop in a 64 quarter and rock and roll on steam! Or something like that.

 

At over $60 per gallon Plus shipping for 90% fuel grade hydrogen peroxide, it seems you should be investing in it rather than silver for the catalyst. I have available 50% H2O2 and 30% and 3% for various experiments and believe me the 50% can be a storage problem. Refrigeration is a neccessity for safety. 30% can be found at most beauty supply stores, just get the clear fluid and not the gel ( both used for removing color from hair before recoloring the one you want. Harsh on a near bald scalp though. Some people use it to brighten their teeth, by I don't recommend it.

 

Good point, I hadn't investigated any pricing, just suggesting that something other than the economy could cause a spike in the price, like the catalytic converter increased demand for certain PM's.