Negative Correlation -- 25th Anniversary Set

The price and the economy had something to do with how long that took to sell out. I know I wanted one, but couldn't justify the price. IMO, if they had priced the 25th SAE set at $500 per set, they would have sold out in a few weeks instead of a few hours.

However, that price would have also made many collectors mad (I heard people complaining about $300).

 

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True, but what does that have to do with the fact there are more ASE collectors than ATB (5oz) collectors.

Your're point about the number of quarter collectors is one reason I like the ATB 5oz P's potential. Once the ATB quarters are released in quantity into circulation, it should give a boost to the low mintage ATB P 5oz'ers. The other reason I like them is they're beautiful coins.

 

You contend that because X number of people bought ASEs then Y number of these will be looking to collect the ASE-25 set, where Y is a large enough number to mean there will be a huge appreciation even given the 100K mintage. So using this logic, there are X number of quarter collectors and Y number of them will be looking to collect the ATB where Y is a large enough number to insure huge appreciation given the 30K mintage.

But wait, even though X is larger for quarters, so Y should be larger, the price of ATBs after the flipping hysteria have dropped to spot.

The point being that any formula for calculating future value should be the same regardless of the coin in question. Else the formula is suspect.

 

To be fair, it does come with a nifty wooden box! LOL!!

 

[2nd quote was in response to 1st]

It would seem to me to be the opposite. The built in hedge is there when you buy bullion near melt value. Paying premiums far exceeding melt value is not hedging because you could lose ~80% of the value if collectibility is no longer part of the game. This is why I didn't attempt to buy any of these, and also steer clear of graded coins unless I can get them for the same price as a regular coin. Collectibility is a luxury that some people can afford to pay for, and for those who are into it there's nothing wrong with that, but it is not an investment any more than buying 5 regular ASE's. If a day should come where necessities take precedence over luxuries then owners of these sets will be hard pressed to get their value out. If I had one I would keep it, but if I had more than that I'd be selling while demand is high. This looks just like the ATB hype all over again, and look where the price of those are now.

 

Nah, although supply & demand are basic, I'd say the formula varies with each coin series and market conditions. Take for example bullion coins, the ATB P 5oz'ers. I see at least three factors that had/have a negative affect on the market (temporarily?). First, a 25% drop in silver made the asking price too high. Second, bullion collectors' attention switch to the 25th Ann. Set. Third, the ATB quarters aren't circulating, which if they did, could increase interest in the 5oz'ers.

Now, you can attempt to devise formulas to predict future value and sometimes they come close and sometimes they don't due to unforeseen events. In other words, there are no guarantees a coin will appreciate, only potential.

 

The economy is worse now than then.

Also alot of the UHR graded 70 and immediately sold for $3,200, and maintained that price forever. The 69's which all the rest were brought $2,400. The price was $1,350, grading was $50. How could you not justify an $1,800 profit?

 

For who? You forget the most collectors are in top 5% of income bracket and recession hasn't impacted the income bracket a whole lot. But between 2008 Sept - 2009 June when we saw the depression like scenario and stock market plunge (top 10% was hit hard) lot of those coins were going in auctions for half the price they went for before Lehman.

 

There are quite a few ATB collectors (look at the proof set sales).

There just aren't many 5oz silver ATB coin collectors. Those things aren't real quarters anyways.

I wonder how a 5 oz ASE would do.

 

Yes & no. Many proof set collectors are just that, they'd buy proof sets regardless of which coins are in them.
As for the ATB P 5oz'ers not being real coins - that's what they used to say about the classic half dollar commems - they weren't meant for circulation, so they appealed to a small group of collectors, thus their low mintage. Since the ATB P's are beautiful low mintage coins, selling at a low premium over melt, IMO, they're a bargain.

 

Yes Indeed. Grasshopper.

 

Where in the world did you read that statistic??? I'll wait until you cite an authorative source. No source, Everyone please disregard it.

 

Theres coins worth millions with way less intrinsic value than the 25th anv set.....But for the most part me and you are on the same page, I knew just what would happen with the ATB pucks.

 

I wondered the same. Since there are so many coin collectors, most are probably not in the top 5%, but then, those that spend serious money, probably are.

 

I should have said collectors who are willing to spend $$$ not all collectors in general.
Since I am pretty sure your average joe isn't going drop 5k for slabbed coins hence the market for them has not been unaffected with recession unlike cars, appliances etc.

In fact market for luxury items are thriving in this economic climate
http://www.businessweek.com/magazin...21145709.htm?chan=rss_topEmailedStories_ssi_5

 

Top 5% of what, an American on welfare is in the top 10% globally.