Negative Correlation -- 25th Anniversary Set

My first post. I am brand new to collecting and have purchased my first coins. This set. The events surrounding this sets release has driven my interest to start collecting and find this site.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

Cool. Welcome aboard.

 

The UHR. (and it took the mint close to a year to sell 100K of those)

 

I think coin collectors fall for hype more than sports cards and comic book collectors.

 

My take on this set is that it will always retain a premium over its initial mint release price. The '06 has proven that after 5 years and I believe this set will also. Will it continue to retain the stratospheric prices it now enjoys? I don't kid myself that it will. Things will settle down in a few weeks and I expect this set to nestle in the $400-$500 area for the next ten years or so. Others will disagree and that's your right and prerogative. I just want to point out that one of the strongest proponents of this set continuing to enjoy "moon money" also spoke about the potential of the Boy Scout commemorative to be a huge hit and money maker for collectors, and we all know what happened with that one. On the contrary, the actuality of that one ever making money never materialized. The present reality of what's going on with these 25th annual sets is really scary to me. I won't sell any of mine at this time. It just doesn't seem right cashing in like this. I don't want to sound negative to you guys that are, however. More power to ya. Make hay while the sun shines, but that's not me, nor the collector in me. In the end, some one's gonna be left holding the bag on this one and any collector that's buying in now, on the secondary market, needs to have their head examined. Take it from a guy that has been left holding the bag on more than one occasion........

 

Excuse me but I find your comments very confusing:
A- You say you will not sell now
B- Buying now will leave you holding the bag, because you believe that the price will decline
C- You have been left holding the bag before

So you are Not selling now because you Want to be left holding the bag Again?

I would expect anyone who expects that the price will go down would sell now, at or near the high and buy back when the price goes down in the future. You claim to be doing just the opposite.

Do you have money that you don't want? I can help you by taking all you don't need or want. :>)

 

Yes

Not me Dave. Some other unfortunate devil.

I'm the one in the "catbird seat" Dave. I could sell these now and make a (what I feel is) a sinful profit. I will add that I'm a very poor business man. But I do wake up in the morning and can look at myself in the mirror. I'm sure that most that are selling these things right now can do the same, but not me. Just ain't feeling right.

I already told ya, I'm a lousy business man.....

Need all I can get Dave, but this just seems like blood money to me......

 

You sir are so very close to my first post. This set will flat-line at $500 until it is rediscovered 5 years from now, not 10. I think a 30th Anniversary set will have a production of 250,000 and as a result of inflation will be priced at $699. A collector you may be, and it never hurts to be a smart investor.

 

It's just that I'm a horrible investor. That's why I stick to collecting.......

And I know I stepped into a dung heap on this one, but I just can't bring myself to sell at these prices.

 

'I just want to point out that one of the strongest proponents of this set continuing to enjoy "moon money" also spoke about the potential of the Boy Scout commemorative to be a huge hit and money maker for collectors, and we all know what happened with that one. On the contrary, the actuality of that one ever making money never materialized.'

Ken makes a valid point that is worth heeding. I am a collector first and foremost, but greed made me behave like a speculatorI foolishly bought into the hype for this coin, and now I am stuck with 40 of them. These coins are the definition of illiquid. I've considered donating all but two of them (one proof and one uncirculated for my collection) to the two boy scout troops in my town. I thought that maybe they could give one to each scout who earns his eagle badge. It would be a way to ease the pain of losing all that money by doing something good for others. It's just the devil in the details that is keeping me from doing so: can I really trust someone to oversee the proper distribution of them, etc.

 

I think what you meant to say, not at this time. You're in an envious position of never losing.

 

I suppose that's a good way of putting it.

Like buying a two dollar lotto scratch off and winin' 5 bucks.........

 

The thing is, nobody is forcing anybody to buy these. You aren't selling bottled water for 100x cost in the middle of a desert to crowds on the verge of death! These are a luxury item that nobody needs. If buyers want to fight each other over these, let them.

If you wouldn't have gotten your sets, they probably would have went to one of the tv sellers and been sold for more. I don't think you should feel guilty over it. The mint has the proverbial blood on their hands. They didn't make enough of them for the demand!

If I didn't get in, I wouldn't expect anybody to give me a special price near cost to get one. The situation has taken on a life of it's own now.

To be honest, I hate to admit it but it's really tempting to sell the whole 5 sets sealed. They're going for such crazy prices to people hoping to get them graded as 70s. If you want to know what's really bad, a single set of 70s is going for over 3 grand tonight!! If people can pay that, let them pay it. We don't know what drives people to do what they do. All I know is I could get a brand new gun safe delivered for free if I wanted to sell the whole sealed box. Or, be content with selling a couple and keeping 3 sets of ASEs for a couple hundred.

This whole thing is a double edged sword. I feel fortunate to be in the position but on the other hand, it'd kind of be nice if it didn't have to be such a big deal. If you could just open the box and enjoy them as intended. It's hard not to think about the $800 going out the window as the box cutter slices through the tape. That's on the agenda for me tomorrow.

 

[video=youtube;FPooB8pRCtE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPooB8pRCtE[/video]

 

I believe the price of this set will fall to a lower level, maybe to $500-$600, in the following weeks and months, after many place 2 or 3 of their 5 sets for sale. At the same time with the increased supply, there is a temporary drop in demand. Many who wanted a set bought theirs from the mint, and those who tried but couldn't, are understandably disgruntled and do not want to pay the higher price. In time, however, the disappointed collectors will come around and get one when they find one for a price they can digest. New collectors come to the hobby and want them. The sets find a loving home one by one, and if the sets stay in collections without returning to the market, the supply dwindles while the demand picks up. This true demand and supply will drive the price back up.

So in my mind, the key quality that determines the long-term value of this set (and any other collectible) is its lovability. How many people, after getting one, actually like it enough to keep it off the market? Those who like their sets hide them in their cupboards and safety deposit boxes, taking them off the market for a long time. After opening my set and fondling it for a few days, I'm in love and consider it a permanent part of my collection. I came to the hobby when the 2009 UHR was on sale at the mint, and loved it, but decided not to get one as I was new and did not trust my instinct yet. Glad I learned that lesson.

As for bullion being worthless as a collectible - I think it is THE collectible of the future. In 20 years we all may be using only electronic money, and coins go "out of sight, out of mind". Coin collecting may well "do stamps". Bullion, however, is not going anywhere. I see PMs only gathering momentum, especially silver as an affordable alternative to gold that also has real-world value because of its industrial uses.

I think comparisons of these ASE sets to any US commemoratives, or ATB pucks, or many other US mint products are not meaningful. Bullion market and bullion collectibles market are global, and increasingly so in the future. US commems, dead US presidents, their spouses, and US parks are of little interest to international collectors. Investors will buy anything with potential value, but collectors want to enjoy their collection too. ASEs have a pretty motif that translates well over national borders. So does the buffalo. How do I know? I'm not an American.

 

Loved everything about your post except the last sentence. You're not an American, yet you reside in California?

An ex patriot of sorts?

 

There is no way this set will ever sell for 400 to 500 - that would be too close to the 2006 set. The 2011 set has double the keys with mintages closer to the 1995W than the 2006 set. Ok, if silver dropped to $6/oz, so we lose a bunch of eagle collectors, the price would drop, but I doubt that low. As a matter of fact, numismatic value is down for most issues, with the bad economy. So, when the economy recovers will the 1995W & 2006 set return to their pre recession highs, along with new highs for the 2011 set. Glad green18 is a self admitted bad business man and investor - his prediction must mean this set is going to the moon.

 

Yup, I reside in California now but have not decided where, if anywhere, to "settle". Who knows, I may become an American one day. The currency I grew up with died several years ago on a continent far away, and I was really happy when I moved here and realized this country has a much more stable and reasonable currency!

 

Argentina?

 

No, euro zone. Glad I didn't start collecting euros, it does not look that reliable either.