Thank you Wiki-Leaks(!) US Gov confirms gold price manipulation

I wonder how much of it is fake. I hate buying any Chinese gold knowing there are a lot of counterfeit items out there.

 

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Yeah but they live there...they would be better judges of what is real and what is fake then we would be.

 

I would say that all the gold on those markets is genuine. They don't seem to care if people sell fake stuff to Americans via eBay. Do it in China though and the penalties are quite harsh.

 

This reminds me a lot of the many posts by folks a few years ago who said that silver would never go up because of the enormous supply they saw for sale at various coin shows. Sometimes what looks like a lot in person is a tiny drop in the bucket on the world markets.

 

If just 50% of the Chinese population bought just 1 ounce each, that is 600,000,000 ounces or 18,662 metric tons. This is equal to the entire gold reserves of the USA and Eurozone combined.

 

Are you saying that you believe that 50% of the Chinese population has the spare cash to buy an ounce of golds???

 

I have no idea. This is why I put "If" in my post. If people there believe that gold is the only safe way to store what they have earned, I'd say that on a per capita basis, it's very possible. As originally point out, they are taking the long view on this.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/08/12/us-china-wealth-idUSTRE67B1W720100812

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/comment...ina-post/2010/06/28/262505/Chinas-unequal.htm


The distribution of wealth is China is many time more polarized than in the US or other major countries. The average Chinese paid worker family, has an average of $360 USD equivalent lifetime savings. Yes there are Billionaires, but on the whole the people are not. IMO.

Jim

 

I don't do battle of the links except on occasion when you first contended the Chinese were not even allowed to hold gold and I posted those videos that showed otherwise. I did read them however and they are opinion pieces that don't cite sources. I also saw a piece that said that in the USA the top 400 income earners here had more assets than the bottom 50% of the population combined. It's irrelevant.

The point is the Chinese are now allowed to hold gold, they seem very enthusiastic about doing so and are being encouraged, and your own links say they have a middle class that is as large as the entire population of the USA. Your link said that 310 million have incomes that are equivalent to the USA or Europe. If just 50% of that buy one ounce of gold, we are talking about 155,000,000 ounces or 4675 metric tons. Again this is more than 1/2 the entire gold reserve of the USA. Not a small amount or "drop in the bucket" as implied.

 

I think the point is that this is a very old argument that has been made for decades, and hasn't materialized yet. The myth of the Chinese consumer is an old one. Perhaps someday it will be true, but it is a long shot for any single prediction. In the case of gold, if both the seller and buyer are Chinese citizens, the transaction may have no impact on the world price or supply regardless of the volume. If Chinese gold suppliers are going around the world to bring gold back to China, then the story has more truth to it. I don't know which is the case.

 

First you said the Chinese could not own physical gold. Now you are saying they have been buying it for decades. Both are incorrect.

 

No, just the opposite. I was correcting your comment about the buying power of the Chinese and their impact on the market. It's a common error.

 

Then you failed at your mission. Try again.

 

I think Cloud was referring to the notion that the Chinese have been buying gold for decades as the mythical argument, not saying that they have actually been doing so. Although it's hard to prove anything one way or another with all the secrecy over there. My understanding is that the Chinese government has been accumulating gold for a few years now behind the scenes, but that's a different story than whether the population at large has also been doing so.

We can say this much with certainty: The nation is importing more and more each year, and they are telling their citizens to buy it.

Of course volume is key to any sort of accurate determination, and we probably won't get our hands on that. I do think that because their economy has grown so much in recent years that it will have a hard time sustaining such levels of increase. I also have heard (unsubstantiated) claims that they have a lot more debt than they'll admit to. So it's not a cut and dry situation, but I do think that they and India will keep demand at a high level simply due to enormous populations and cultural affinity for the metal, with monetary debasement playing a role in sentiment as well.

 

An extremely interesting discussion and debate. I've thoroughly enjoyed reading this thread. Thank you gentlemen.....

 

Everyone here knows that it is impossible to get you to admit it when you are wrong. It isn't my mission to help you. It's something you need to work on yourself.

 

I'm liking this thread and fatima, you're a good debater.

 

I think you've got it correct.

 

LOL You said that Chinese citizens could not take physical possession of gold. You were absolutely wrong as proven above. Yet you don't admit this. Proof is in the pudding Dear Heart.

I don't think you speak for "everyone" Someone who does is delusional. You repeat another mainstream notion about bullion investing. You make silly claims that you then try to google up results for that you misinterpret. You did it several times in this topic and in most other topics on this forum. When you get called out on it, you result to insults and distractions. I'm not the only one who has said this here.

 

Thank you.