I thought that it would break $2000 before taking a hit, but this is huge! Is this going to be a constant trend, or is this just a one day thing to correct the massive overbuying?
It isn't "huge." It's 5% due to another increase in margin requirements. Drops like this happen regularly with gold, and every time it is pronounced THE END. Now, someday the end of the gold bull market will come, but this doesn't look like it. Please do your own analysis and draw your own conclusions. I'm not pretending to be able to forecast the future.
I'm going to buy big when gold drops back down to $3-400 and silver goes back to $5-6 an ounce like the good old days.
27% margin hike by the CME can claim responsibility as far as I'm concerned. It goes into effect tomorrow, but the announcement was made earlier today and is probably already priced in for the most part now. I highly doubt it's the last time this will happen, but my question is will we see more margin hikes in rapid succession like we did in silver? Shanghai did 22% two days ago so it wouldn't surprise me. A combined 49% hike is nothing to scoff at, but I didn't expect gold to be so easily moved being such a large market compared to silver. Over this span we've seen an 8% drop in gold (1900 -> 1750) and an 11% swing in silver (44 -> 39) [now 9% drop at $40] and a move like that says buying opportunity to me. Although I'll be keeping an ear to the ground for hikes. Once Bernanke speaks Friday I expect this dip to be done with. No guarantees
Wait thousands of year it might happen in the Future....I might now start looking for a FOUNTAIN of YOUTH....:smile
You guys may treat what I'm saying like a joke but I am going by past occurences here. Back in 1980 silver went to $50 an ounce and collapsed. Silver remained in the $5-6-7 range for about 15 years until about 2006 or so.
But it had the help of a large amount of foreign stockpiles being sold into a weak market. Just saying that I believe this price performance was as abnormal as the 1980 spike.
Silver would need to reach $128 in 2011 dollars to equal the inflation adjusted high for $50 in 1980 dollars. I'm not saying that's a reason to lean on for why it will go there, but it puts things into perspective. If this is a bubble it's not nearly as big as that one from a value standpoint.
Gold fell because those that were pumping it up in the past few weeks, are simply taking some profits. If they always held and never sold there would be no money to be made. This is just a blip on the radar screen. Gold will continue to rise, hopefully at a much slower pace. Silver seems to be a little more stable and a better buy.
For the sake of accuracy, I just saw a different chart yesterday that put the inflation adjusted high well over $300/oz. In any case, I think we have a ways to go. In the absence of margin hikes for gold and silver as well as and currency interventions, which we've seen both of numerous times this year, I believe we would be looking at $60 silver already and likely much higher due to the mania that was prevented by these actions.
The inflation calculator says that to purchase something for $50 in 1980 would take $137 today. It's based on the government's definition of the consumer price index which hasn't sayed consistant over this time.
Thanks fatima. The chart I saw yesterday was from ShadowStats, but it's good to know the minimum at least. In either case we are still far from a true high.
Gold is up $40 in the last 4 hours, sitting at $1825, with silver tagging along percentage wise. Only $25 away from erasing the $100 drop. Maybe we can thank Ben for this recent move just for speaking earlier today. The articles I've read indicate they'll be meeting for 2 days in September to discuss what tools they may use if necessary, although I can't find evidence of any such tools other than QE even though they've said that's not the only option. I'd be interested if anyone knows what else they might consider.
I'm hoping gold is going to drop some more, I want to carry on buying some, but once it gets to $1900 it's a bit too rich for my blood.