Would US Treasuries being downgraded to AA cause PM's to soar? I was curious what you all thought. I also wonder if a debt ceiling agreement could cause PM's to sell off. This is one of the toughest investment environments I've ever seen in terms of picking a short term trend. So much headline risk in either direction. I am a LONG PM Bull ... been that way for years ... but trying to predict these week to week swings is TOUGH!! Tell you one thing though ... I am glad I have a lot of gold and silver as I just don't trust all this paper currency. And if we have a sell off ... I consider it nothing more than another buying opportunity. However I wonder if all the shenanigans in Washington could cause a spike in PM prices over the next week or two. I mean ... I know we have had a run up in PMs over the past month ... but it's been very slow and orderly. Could we see a day sometime in the next couple of weeks where gold shoots up $50 to $75 and silver up $4 or $5 an ounce?? It's going to be interesting to see the drama unfold.
This is my business. :smile Call this a bold prediction, but I think it is QUITE possible, if not certain, that you will see at LEAST a 5 dollar increase in silver, and a 40-50 dollar increase in gold. I believe we may even see 50 dollar silver by close on Friday. Put the current mining of silver aside and look at consumer demand for silver. As gold becomes more unobtainable for most people, silver is an effective option, and in electronic applications, just as conductive. Now.....lets add the increasing rarity of silver (projected to be our first "diminished" element on the periodic table). Silver must, and will surpass 400 an ounce by 2020, and will continue to out perform gold 5 to 1. I put everything I have in silver bullion and 90%. as silver increases, more 90% gets melted, hence creating the numsmatic value of the remainder. Those who hold physical silver have everything to look forward to in the coming years.
Actually the run up of gold since July 4th has been about $125, over 8%, so I suspect that a large amount of the financial fear is already figured in. If the debt ceiling problems had continued to iron out, and with the Greece problem getting better, I would have expected $25 drop Friday. But these problems are still there , and so is the fear gold. If both problems become stable this week, then I think gold will be back to 1500 +/- by mid August. If not or if a new problem comes up ( maybe China), then as now, it is all a gamble. If silver hits $45 by Friday, I will be happy also, as I will be out for the 2nd time this year with profits. If it goes higher, my best wishes to those still in, but I will have little regrets. Jim
I bought my silver and gold for my retirement which should start in 10 years or so. With my huge PM position I am hoping I wont have to worry about inflation eating my retirement account's lunch.
I think any downgrade bodes well for PM's as it would hurt confidence in fiat. One of the YouTube PM guys I like, Davincij15, thinks that at some point in the near future all commodities are going to take a big hit except for gold, due to an economic slowdown. Silver is such a small market it is uniquely vulnerable to other influences as well. If I had to place my bets I'd say $55-$60 silver by December is reasonable. I wouldn't be surprised to see some swings along the way. It seems like dollar moves are pretty normal lately. Volatility to me says uncertainty which is bullish for metals.
It can get very confusing to attempt to tie movements in PM prices to political or economic events. Regardless of what happens over the next few weeks, PMs are in a bull market which will continue until the forces that created it run out of energy. I don't think we are there yet, so it is easier to turn off the noise and just sit and do nothing until the bull market is over. Remember your Jesse Livermore...
