Price of Silver and Theories?

An inflexible plan is no plan at all. None of us really know where it will go, but I'm going to continue on the journey I started and I don't know when I'm going to end it. I don't know if I'll win, lose or draw, but I will end it based on info available, not others situation.

 

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Now that we have so many new greed-based investors (jumped in late to make a quick buck without understanding the market) in the game, I suspect that we will languish for longer than normal in the low 30s.

I got a few friends that jumped in late (despite my advice) and are wondering why the market got manipulated down... Like "the man" is preventing them from making 100% in a few months. Personally, I see a market that has jumped from $18 to $34 in a very short time....amazing.

After 10 years of collecting bullion, I did something new last month. I sold 1/8th of my silver at $46ish. It felt strange but after few days, as the silver price jumped to $49.5, I started to understand the advice of people like Cloud. The simplified theory of "never sell" locks you into a static mindset that promotes your inborn idea that your smart.

Even if silver didn't drop a week after I sold a little, I think the step I took will allow me more flexibility in the future.

 

It has been said how silver is a thin market. We don't see much posting from the "silver to the moon" types, recently, but with the small market and the ease of manipulation, I suspect we might see a replay in the next 12 months or so, as the general public is set up once again for a push upward, maybe beyond the $50, and then another gain for the pros and another killing of the public retail buyers. as the market collapses again. Even a P.T. Barnum type could see such coming, IMO. The question will be how many buy more silver near the peak.

Jim

 

Jim, If we see another parabolic rise like we did at the end of April, I'd venture a guess that a whole lot more will try to get in and out quickly for a quick buck, only to lose. (some for the 2nd time?) It's amazing to me that a busy store will become busier because people are afraid they're missing something because of the commotion. The store next door could have better goods at a better value and do no business because noboby thought to look. Such is life...

 

Most likely. The quotes I look for are such as

" It is different this time"
" It will double in 2 months"
" Fiat currency is worthless, only PM will survive"
" Silver is the poor man's gold"
" Insufficient supply for industrial uses"

etc. Now any of the above could be true in the long run, but I use them for warning signs.

Jim

 

My personal favorite is "To da Moon", or any slightly significant factor is the tipping point of the beginning of the end.

 

No I didn't buy at $40 an oz at all in fact I bought most of my silver for a lot less. I dumped alot of silver on ebay at right around $40 an ounce but now all the buyers are being alot more cautious and look like their only buying the cheapest silver. It's a bit funny b/c everyone was saying that silver would go way past $50 an oz and I myself believed that it would as well. I guess we'll have to see. More to be revealed in the future.

When silver first took a nose dive I thought it was because bin laden got killed and the world was feeling safer. Now I'm not so sure but it looks like we're stuck with this new $35-$37 price range tho and I'm just trying to create a plan B. Time will tell. Cheers!! :thumb:

 

Sometimes it doesn't pay to try to figure out WHY. Markets do what they do because of the individual actions of millions of people. When silver prices got far below production cost, it was fairly easy to forecast that the price would have to catch up at some point. Now that silver is above production cost, it's all speculation and should be treated that way. In the case of silver, the price got pretty far extended above the trend line, and now has returned to trend. Because the drop was large and the technical damage pretty severe, it might take awhile before there is another run-up in the price.

 

DG:thumb:
All ways is spot on!:kewl:

 

Silver's hit doesn't have much to do with fundamentals. That doesn't say much for whether it can and likely will happen again, and fundamentals may not even be the most important factor in markets (and yes it was overextended compared to other commodities).

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=127406&sn=Detail&pid=110649

 

Normally it would take many years for silver to go into a bubble phase and pop again.

But the bullion dealers have a lot of money to spend marketing. So maybe they can get it cranked up again, or perhaps they will push something else.

My advice is to buy silver when no one else wants the stuff and hold on to it for the next speculative frenzy.

 

So what you guys doing with your silver? Anyone still selling on ebay? Hey it's a profit, but I'd really hate to sell at these prices only to find out in July that it goes past $50 oz. I'm gonna give it a few days or so and if nothing changes, I'm gonna bust out some of my duplicates and sell them just to get some spending money. I was surely loving it when silver was soaring!!