Silver To Settle In The $28.00 Range?

I'm not a big fan of predictions, but this chart seemed pretty interesting. I wouldn't mind the $28.00 range, in order to feel good about buying things again.

http://www.economy-news.co.uk/silver-price-bubble-20201105.html

 

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These comparison charts are used all of the time. I've seen dozens over the years to "prove" that the stock market was replaying 1929 and the like. Right now, gold and silver seem to be building a base that could propel both to higher levels later this year. But predictions are difficult, especially the ones about the future.

 

I also read this same prediction on another site today. It seems plausible considering their argument.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page103855?oid=127475&sn=Detail&pid=102055

 

If QE3 is in any way on the table, I am buying silver every paycheck.

 

At least this prediction is made by someone who has a little more training than many internet predictions, or predictions by PM firms who have a severe vested interest.

I just see an awful lot of coins and bullion being sold. To me, a lot of these large purchases of ASE, AGE, and similar items are being bought by people who traditionally do not buy them. Since they are not long term holders, I am viewing all of these purchases as excessive inventory, and its just building higher and higher. If silver prices stay this long for another year you will have to start seeing industrial replacement of it as an ingredient, since it takes about that long for hedges to expire and alternatives to be put in place.

$28 long term? Not a horrible number, especially in a few years worth of inflation. I would just point out if the economy can gather steam, or if another market sector, (any kind of investment, maybe playing the Yuan), takes off, this stockpile could pummel PM's, silver especially, short term.

Seriously, look at the big picture, in the late 70's it was PM, in the 80's it was REIT's, in the 90's it was tech stocks, in the 00's it was housing, now its commodities. Can't everyone see there are just big piles of money moving around to whatever investment considered fashionable and "hot"? Ten years from now $28 for silver will be somewhat in line with historical pricing, so the guy simply did the same calc as I did a few months ago. Therefor, I agree its reasonable not being able to foresee the future.

Chris

 

this might **** off a lot of the silver bugs....
http://www.minyanville.com/business...price-silver-market-silver/5/16/2011/id/34574

 

i would buy more at $28!!

 

$28 wouldn't seem unreasonable, since the intrinsic value of silver in 2009 was $27.

 

historically silver tends to hover around its 200dma...which right now is ~28. given the crazy run its had this past year, i wouldnt be surprised to see it over-correct to the downside...$20?
ive made my money for now, and given the number of big events we have coming up this summer (debt ceiling, QE2, europe possibly defaulting) im staying on the sidelines and will reevaluate after all this passes.

 

I don't disagree that silver will settle in the $20's since that is probably in the range of the marginal cost of production, but for now the bull market still seems to be intact and I would expect to see another all time high before it is over.

 

If this happened I would just buy more I don't think it will though. The article indicates the last 56 times silver had a run up like this it dropped 85%, but I doubt that any of those times included the percentage increase in monetary supply we've experienced over the current run. Sure, silver has far outpaced CPI, but it's pretty consistent with the actual increase in monetary base at today's prices, which is what I would expect an inflation hedge to do. There's global demand like never before in an age of instantaneous data flow, industrial and medicinal uses that can't be replaced without loss of quality, and the amount of above ground available silver is the lowest in 700 years. US reserves are listed as depleted. If existing supply plus new mining efforts can't keep up with demand over the last 10 years, or the last 50 even, how exactly can mining do it by itself as demand continues to rise? Then again, supply and demand are easily influenced by large wallets these days so anything is possible.

 

I saw a PM analyst (cannot remember the name) on CNBC several weeks ago (right around the time silver plunged) state that the pull back will level off between $30-$35 and then reach $60 by the end of the year. So far, he has been right on the first part; let's see on the second part. TC

 

Just remember that the best 3 months of the year for silver and gold are always SEP-OCT-NOV ... so look for another run in the Fall.

 

You should be buying gold instead if this is your reason for buying silver.

 

Most analysts I read seem to agree that if gold rises significantly that the gold/silver ratio will drop to 20:1 or less. If you don't think it's going to rise, then why buy anyway? Gold's primary uses are recoupable unlike common uses for silver (industrial/medicinal) so future supply levels should support the direction of the ratio change on a basic level.

 

The bullion dealers have done a great marketing job to get the masses buying silver again, and at prices not seen since the last great bubble. It will fall to it's true value well below 28.

 

I only wish it would fall to below $30 or even $25 an ounce, I'd snap some up at those prices.

 

What's interesting to me, is the dollar should be stronger with the Euro debt problems popping up again. Yet silver's still sitting at $35.

 

Euro

I agree but would add for now the dollar is up a bit and the Euro is doing what most have been waiting for ,a down turn.
Nothing can really let the dollar maintain a strong position over any length of time.
The Euro is in the same position.
Asia is not a lot better , including China .
With margin rates up, metals should go up again . As previously expressed no crystal ball for the future exists , but feelings seem to be down on fiat money.

 

I got no idea where silver prices are going to go barring major market or world events. I'm paying close attention to Desert Gem and CloudSweeper. Desert Gem I believe got out of silver a week or so before the dump from $49.xx/oz to where it is now. I had planned to sell another 80oz - 100oz at $50.00/oz but it never reached $50.00. Both of them were saying inflation was not really happening. The commodity bubble burst and people are longer talking about inflation.