$8 1-day silver move coming

There is a lot of truth to that. One thing people should consider is that when the top comes, and a $6-8 move might very well be the top, the holders of silver in coin and bar form might only have a 24-48 hour window to sell everything if they want to get out close to the top. So you should plan ahead to know exactly how you will sell if the top happens to be tomorrow [for illustration, not prediction].

Regarding miners, its really a terrible business with high fixed costs, a wildly fluctuating commodity price, high energy costs, and for most companies, average [at best] management with a tendency to act more in their own interest rather than shareholders.

 

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If silver starts making $7 or $8 up moves, then I would think that means that silver is entering the blow-off period. If I am wrong on this, then feel fee to correct me.

 

I'm with you WingedLiberty. I'm going long on silver. It has nowhere to go but up. I'm holding and selectively buying. Although I see 100 very possible before the end of 2011. The correction in the silver market is happening now. Those who are waiting for 20 dollar silver again, can keep waiting.

 

In my opinion, NOPE. I said it before, I'll say it again, I'll take physical silver over "paper" silver any day.

 

It is going to soar to $55 than crash I believe.

 

You are correct. Probably. Predicting the future is difficult.

 

If silver moves 15% in a day (intra-week, not on a Monday), then I would start buying puts and buying physical at the same time. I'm not sure that makes sense to anyone else, but it makes a great deal of sense to me.

 

It's either bubble mania (puts) or the accelerator on the dollar is being floored directly into a brick wall (physical).

 

Not exactly. My thinking is net short, but here's my complete reasoning:

If silver jumps 15% in a day, no one will be buying. That means I'll be able to acquire silver at possibly a 20% (and at least 15%) discount to spot. The puts will probably cost me a 3% premium per month, so I'd have five months of downside protection in the event I can't liquidate at the market. I wouldn't be buying physical to go long.

 

Your other reasoning may be sound, but this part could trip up your plan. It's just as likely that no one will be selling after a 15% move. It depends on the reason for the move.

 

That sounds like a Yogi-ism. It's like when Yogi said, "That bar is so crowded that nobody goes there anymore."

 

It is getting awfully difficult to continue sitting on silver I bought in at $4.50- $6.50 an ounce. But it is harder to have money in the bank depreciating at usurious rates.

 

I always like to look at the past to give some insight on what potentially could happen in the future:



- In 1964 silver was around $1 an ounce (maybe a bit over?)

- Over the next 10 years into the mid 1970s, silver moved steadily up to around $10 an ounce (so that was a 10x move)

- Silver then went parabolic in the late 1970s to 1980 moving from $10 to $50 (an additional 5x move, for a total move of 50x)
then quickly back down to $20 then $10 (giving up the parabolic move entirely in a few months in 1980)



Silver then languished for 21 years taking a choppy path between $5 and $10 an ounce



- In 2001 silver was around $4 an ounce (close to a 22 year low).

- Over the next 10 years or so into the year 2011, silver made a 10x move to over $40.

- So if history repeated itself the next explosive parabolic move would be another 5x on top of that, taking silver to $200/oz

- Then if history repeated ... it would collapse back down to $40, which would become the new long term floor.



Of course the dynamics of that parabolic move in 1980 were different, because in 1980 it was due to a few people (the Hunt brothers) trying to corner (manipulate) the silver market.

Today the dynamics of the silver (and gold) move is much more expansive and pervasive due to the massive printing of unbacked currency and devaluation of paper money and a lot of foreign governments and foreign (perhaps asian?) people wanting to diversify away from paper currency (esp away from the U.S. Dollar).

Not saying that $200 silver is definitely in the cards or anythng, however I'm just looking at the past. It's sort of an interesting mental exercise. I do think $100 silver could easily happen in the next few years though.

 

Well this is due to the fact that it was legally defined to be this way. Executive order 11110

'(j) The authority vested in the President by paragraph (b) of section 43 of the Act of May 12, 1933, as amended (31 U.S.C. 821(b)), to issue silver certificates against any silver bullion, silver, or standard silver dollars in the Treasury not then held for redemption of an outstanding silver certificates, to prescribe the denominations of such silver certificates, and to coin standard silver dollars and subsidiary silver currency for their redemption,'....John F. Kennedy, THE WHITE HOUSE, June 4, 1963.

In other words, the US government was selling its remaining stockpiles of silver at essentially $1/ounce. (or one silver dollar) They stopped the redemptions in 1968 when the silver supply was exhausted and for the fact that it was no longer possible for the the government to attempt to hold the Federal Reserve Note at parity with Silver Certificate dollars. They were printing too many FRNs as they do now. A couple of years later, Nixon was forced to end gold redemption of FRNs with other nations for the same reason.

The point being, is this won't be repeated because this is a very specific situation that hasn't existed for 43 years. Silver is now a purely speculative endeavor which, BTW has burned many people who have thought otherwise. That will part will get repeated. This is because people still believe that Silver unlike Gold, has something to do with currency printing.


(note that while the USA got rid of its silver, it held on to its gold)

 

:d

 

oh

 

If it were not for this site many would know less about our " difficulty" .
I am not sure like most that what PMs will offer as far as stability?
I do know that today nothing is really standing in their way of going up . Our currency is being questioned every time gold and silver move up.
Would I wish to start buying now ? Depends on your age for some. I know when I look at dollar futures I see money being debased at a rapid rate , and exports not picking up the slack.
With the Euro at twice the dollar why has the fan not ejected a foul smell from Europe. They have countries that are in default for all practical purposes.
I believe gold, and silver will continue up until we make an effort to quit sending money out for oil . We need use our own resources.
I would rather take a small loss in gold, rather than a large loss in our cloth fiat denominated monopoly money.