$8 1-day silver move coming

I was listening to Fast Money on CNBC this evening and they said very few people are in the silver trade and that we are only in the 3rd or 4th inning of the silver move. They also thought a $6 to $8 one-day up move in silver is coming. They were hinting at $100 silver (not sure of their time frame). Whether or not that proves to be correct is to be seen. Certainly an interesting debate.

 

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I'm skeptical.

 

Me too... and I bought 500 ounces today alone.... I'm in flip mode... lock it in as soon as I get it... make it go away...

 

I am sure everyone was skeptical of $46 silver six months ago, and here we are. And everyone was skeptical of $1+ per day silver moves six months ago, and we've had a number of those.

I actually think all the skeptics is what's making it go higher. Nobody believes in the trade so nobody is long silver. There are more people short silver, betting it will go down. And we all know how markets tend to move opposite of consensus.

The top happens when EVERYBODY is bullish and is fully invested, which is far from the case today.

I've been saying $50 silver in 2011 and $75-$100 silver in 2012 for some time now and I've had little company.

 

Yesterday, I think it was Adami, said the same thing, but he added that "that would be the top and he would go to puts". In my mind he wasn't being bullish, so much, as saying that is when the top will be happening, and I do agree. A $6-8 dollar jump in 24 hrs, without a corresponding jump in gold, or a dump in the USD, would see me cashing out of PM and grabbing puts also. IMO. Maybe Don Meredith recording of "The party is over" soundtrack on CNBC

Jim

 

What amazes me is I still dont know ANYBODY that is investing in silver ... everyone I know that had any silver sold it. This is the most unloved rally I've ever seen. I will get out when EVERYBODY is investing and long -- and I think that is years away. That being said I think we are way overdue for a correction, however that will be a buying opportunity, not a signal to sell.

 

Maybe that is because they don't want to tell you

Personally , I don't want others to know my portfolio or trading , except my family and when necessary, the IRS. No offense is intended, as if we met in person, it might be very different, but not on an anonymous forum.

jim

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I'm just watching . I'm with JIM on this.

 

Been watching with great interest...if indeed an $8 day occurs..you can bet there will be a cash in and run to the bank.
I suppose my question is this; Do the ETFs have enough physcial Silver backing the paper to meet demand if a run was taken on the paper shares or if physcial silver were needed for delivery?

RickieB

 

I very seriously doubt it. Traders will always overleverage the crap out of themselves to make a few more bucks.

 

Actually I do talk to my friends about investments (nearly all are in stocks and bonds through mutual funds in retirement accounts); and most people I know aren't aware that the U.S. still mints silver coins. When I show my friends or relatives a Silver Eagle, they are fascinated with it and all say "I thought they stopped making those years ago".

 

If you read the official filings such as SLV, physical can only be taken in "baskets" of 50,000 ishares ( $2.25 million appox. today), and by approved participants . Not individuals. GLD is the same general principles, except smaller basket, and some extra rules on the type of bars, etc.

If you are an individual, you will be dealt with in cash exchange, no physical, thus no concern about amount, as long as the AP have cash to pay out, and I expect they would, as they are mostly large money banks or investment groups.

Jim

 

I have always been leary of paper silver ..personally like to hold physcial...
But thats just me. I do not trust so easily...hahahahahah
Thanks Jim..

RickieB

 

I truly feel this may be a market driven by the small investor abroad. We all know how underfunded the PM market is. Today, people are buying silver in small lots quite readily. It's nothing to have 24-25 bids on a $1 face lot on eBay right now. People want to invest, but they can't afford gold coins or bars and few have money to invest in large amounts of Silver. I think most don't have brokers or even want to trade in paper. People want on board. I mean $4 and up for a single dime is being listed by several dealers, and there seem to be buyers. I also feel that China allowing private ownership of PMs has helped fuel this. Everyone in the world distrusts currency right now and with good probable cause. PM's are one form of insurance that people have understood for centuries, and the current world economic picture means everyone who can get some coins, wants some. Not everyone follows through opf course, but it looks like enough people are that it is driving the market ?

 

I saw the show also were they said if silver goes up $6-$8 in one day they would sell because silver can drop faster than it goes up. They also said silver stocks are a poor investment as they have been flat for the last 6 months.

 

I get conflicting info on the current situation concerning private ownership of gold. One indicates they can maintain ownership on their person, and another that the Gold is to be deposited into the Chinese bank as a personal metal account. All of these reports seem to be ( of course) on opposite viewpoint sites. Does anyone have a link to an official chinese release ? As I see these 2 alternates as drastically far apart, IMO.

Jim

 

If I saw a multi-dollar spike I would not sell for cash. I would trade for gold, assuming the fundamentals driving my original PM investment still held true which is the case currently. Even if a correction might be due after that (and many analysts are of the mindset that a correction/consolidation actually bodes better for a bull run instead of allowing things to spike and dive), IMO it defeats the purpose of taking profits when the fiat money you receive is continually debased. I would only cash in if I was going to spend it right away.

 

I actually get the same feeling, especially how silver seems to really move after hours in the U.S. (makes me think there is a lot of Asian trading.
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Adami has no credibility when it comes to PM. He has been fighting it all the way. Hard to believe we are at 46 but what do you sell it for...more dollars? About the best idea I heard was trade for Gold.

Would seem a waste to trade physical for ethereal.

 

cliff high and webbot predicted $1 a day gains and then $5 a day gains his timeframe might be a bit off, we'll see