to those that sold their silver ...

Regrets is always at the end.

 

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Probably it was Warren's exit plan.

I am sure he had someplace to put it he thought was better and may be in the long run.

I believe, knowing his philosophy on looking forward and not backward, that once he did sell, he didn't moan and
groan in his sleep.

I have no problems at all with those who say "silver will reach $150 by May", if they state it -IMO- . I may disagree with them , but that is only my -IMO-, but

I would scold those who, when someone wanted an opinion on buying, and they just say, "it will go to $250 ", as if they had a pipeline to the future, and the asking person then did that based on that posting. Some pundits do not even say "in my opinion", they are so positive. Now how will they feel if the market collapses at $41 and some poor soul has taken it to heart that because "it is on a bullion investing forum, they must know more than me". No one loses actual money by not investing, whereas someone who invests expecting and waiting for $250 an ounce most likely will lose actual money , IMO.

Yes, I know we can't protect every innocent that comes along, rather it is coins or bullion, and not every one wants to hear anything contradictory to their own beliefs, but lets all remember, unless you are from the future, that none of us KNOWS what is going to happen.

An older friend of mine said he wishes the world would end on Dec 21, 2012. I asked why? He said, because then he wouldn't feel he was going to miss anything by dying.

Jim

 

if silver goes crazy.... 80 100 120 ? would you be able to sell yours fast before it drops ?would local buyers be afraid to buy or not offer you anything worth melt
would ebay auctions come to standstill as buyers fear paying to much ?

thats great silver might go higher... but how will you unload physical silver bullion and to who when you cash out??? will you be able to get anywhere near melt? will you be holding the silver bag as it falls ?

 

Just an observation. When silver when up in 1980 the price of what dealers would pay started to drastically slip at about $30. below that value dealers would pay close to spot. Above it they started to discount, and the highest I saw paid was about 25 times face, and this just for a short time. When it started back down they started discounting even heavier, getting down to only paying about 65% of face.

No meaning, just adding to this comment. If a person really wants to sell at the top, I would start paying attention to what % dealers are paying of melt and see if it is changing.

 

These last two comments are very insightful. I was just at a show this last weekend and this is happening right now. It was very busy. Saw quite a few older gentleman looking to sell a few ounces here and there. One dealer was offering $2 back of spot. Another dealer wasn't even interested in making an offer to somebody on 10 oz. Another gave a guy full melt value on 3 oz. I witnessed a couple suggesting that they sell to somebody else there who could give them a better offer. I've never seen this before.

Very valid points raised here. At some point, people....buyers.... are going to get scared. It may be happening right now. We just went through 3/4 of 2010 BELOW $20. Now people are forking over $40 to over $50 (on ebay) for 1 oz. These gains here to stay? Only time will tell.

There hasn't been a significant pull back in quite some time. People need to realize it can drop just as fast as it went up, and has in the past. Long term I believe there's nothing to worry about. Short term, I'm concerned.

 

Nice bustie!

 

I'm guessing you meant "spot", right?

 

I'm pretty sure that the last year HAS been "an explosive parabolic move" in the price of silver. It hasn't been as ridiculous as the market manipulation movement in the 80s, but a parabola, nevertheless.

 

I sold some back in Dec/Jan when it was $32. Look at the links to other threads and mine is the 2nd one listed. I didn't sell it all, but what I sold covered the cost of all the frn's I spent on the silver I own and sold. I'd feel quite stupid if I was sitting on a pile of silver and it was $16 an ounce now. I'd have to give all of them names and keep them as pets.

I wouldn't judge anybody for buying or selling, expecially something that is listed as a commodity on every major market in the world. Sometimes you have to do what you have to do....other times you do what you think is best based on the situation...or experience...

 

I just had this conversation with several people in this forum last week under $38. I told them that we were in a bullish consolidation pennant formation, about to burst through the $38 level in silver and $1440 gold on Monday or Tuesday. They told me they were selling because the "bubble" was about to pop. My near-term target is $45-$50 silver and $1550-$1600 gold before peaking in May and pulling back to the trend line (about $1500 gold, and wherever silver is at that time) over the summer. I'm not selling my bullion until the helicopters stop dropping money. My silver bullion cost basis is well under $10 since my accumulation period was 2002-2008. I bought Silver Wheaton shares at $3 in Oct '08... they're now trading for over $45. Now I mostly trade around in junior mining stocks and options, selling tops and buying bottoms, while holding my core share and bullion positions.

 

My bullion is insurance against currency collapse and hyperinflation. To put a number on when to get out is like putting a number on when your house is going to burn down or your car is going to be wrecked. You buy insurance and then hold it to protect yourself against the risk you're concerned about and go on with your life no longer worrying so much about it.

I have numbers for my near-term tops and bottoms that I trade around, but as long as we're in a bull market (which is the foreseeable future), I don't lament missing a selling opportunity too badly. I'd be more concerned with having too much fiat money at any point in time, as all fiat currencies are in a sustained and irreparable down trend. So it's best to err on the side of holding precious metals. E.g. in Dec/Jan I sold only a tiny bit, anticipating some weakness, but turned out I should have sold more considering the Feb pullback. Nonetheless, I loaded up in Feb at the better prices and am well up on all of those positions. It would have been far worse to sell in Jan, miss the buying opportunity in Feb, and then not ride the trend upward right now.

 

I don't think silver will stop it's run until it at least touches it's 1980 inflation-adjusted high of $120 an ounce -- AND --- you have EVERYBODY talking about how much money they are making in their silver investments (like you had in the dot com bubble and real estate bubble). Right now, very few people are actually invested in silver.

From what i can see, over half of the people that post here (that have an interest in coins) are net sellers of silver (not buyers) -- and most common everyday people that don't collect coins, have probably never even thought about silver as an investment -- that is definitely not the sign of a top.
​

 

I am actually starting to feel bad for all the agressive silver sellers in the $20's and low $30's (and there were a lot). Amazing that the white metal is closing in on $46 wednesday night (4/20). This most recent run-up has been faster and steeper than even I (one of the biggest Silver bulls on this board) thought. The volitility of silver is really high right now and I wonder if we are going to start seeing daily moves of $2 or $3 or $4 or more up and/or down. Silver certainly seems due for a multi-dollar correction, but who knows when that's going to happen.

Take a look at the price charts of silver adjusted for inflation (charts were made in 2008 when silver was $21). The 2 charts show inflation adjustments using two methods (CPI and the SGS M1 money supply). Using either chart, it's amazing how much room there appears to be on the upside as we are nowhere close to the 1980 inflation-adjusted highs of $128 or $365 depending how you measure inflation. Still I think a correction anytime now would be healthy and good for the silver market as it would shake out the weak hands and consolodate prices into nice base in preparation for the next run.

 

I agree. It must be especially hard for those who came on here and publicly called a top $3, $5, $10 ago, and boasted about selling everything. I'm glad I have my core position well intact. I've just been selling some options for a nice gain and building a small reserve of cash for the inevitable pull-back. I knew it was going to break out, but wow, these past few days have even knocked my socks off. And it's concerning that the mining stocks are not confirming the move. However, gold still hasn't reached what I believe will be the near-term top and in fact hasn't moved all too spectacularly, at least compared to silver. I still think we could see $1550-$1600 gold before a summer pull-back, and it's hard to imagine silver falling while gold is rising. Perhaps silver will be reaching $60 before the summer pull-back, which is about $10 higher than I previously thought. It's hard to say, but I'm certainly not shorting it! Anything is possible at this point, so the best move is to ensure you don't have too much leverage or anything on margin. Stay net long, but with protection.

 

What you need to keep in mind is that a lot of us bought significant quantities of silver below $10 and are getting back 4X their money in less than a decade. Some people are satisfied with that and do not have the financial goal to catch the top. Some have other needs for the money. Some want to swap the gain into numismatic coins. Some just want to use the proceeds to enjoy life. Selling now may not turn out to be the best move, but it certainly isn't a mistake for those who aren't serious full time investors. In my case, I've been selling since last November and will continue to do so as the price rises as part of the normal portfolio management technique I've been using successfully for a long time. I'll leave the glory of selling everything at the exact top to others. I know it is fun to believe you are the smartest person in the room, but cut people some slack. Pride goeth before a fall.

 

Howdy all,

What has surprised me is how strong both gold and silver have been at this time of year. That silver has outperformed gold was the obvious low hanging fruit and most of us have been touting that stance for years. I haven't here but over at fundalarm before its recent demise. The two huge reasons for me were the GSR coupled with my experience in the late 70's and as a GI Bill Econ student at MSU. The leverage is with silver - bullion and particularly the junior miners. This is where the really obscene money has and will be made. PassantGardant mentioned SLW and I'll admit that it's been my first homerun in some 25 years of investing. What is enormous is that the silver bullion spot has gone the distance. What was the low? $4? I know I was buying rolles of eagles with s&h for around $90 at one time.

I can still see silver running and gold - duh. I don't see any change in the fundamentals or technicals AND more importantly, this is the bull market of our lifetime. This is the Big freakin Bonanza for us'uns. Ride this sucker until it stops. Ride it until it hurts. Ride it until you get blisters on you butt. Ride it until it changes and revereses.

My mental stop loss for paper investments is a pull back of over 10%. At that point I'll cut back 1/4 of my position and wait for further developments. Further loss and further reduction. Now, in all honesty, with pm's, I would be adding to physical on pullbacks but cutting paper.

peace,

rono

 

I can say I am happy with my decision to sell. I bought most of my silver at $8- $15, so I doubled and tripled my money, and I don't have any of the "lost money" feelings that I would have after a big dip. Do I wish I could have gotten $10 more per ounce? Sure, anyone would, but I find that getting $30-$40 per ounce on the way up feels better than holding through $50 and then only selling for $30-$40. I guess it is the way my mind thinks, but I would feel like I lost that money if the price fell. Selling on the way up is easier and I really feel good that I made money instead of thinking that if I had sold earlier that I would have made more.

I also think it comes down to when you bought. Like I said, I bought at $8-$15 so selling at $30-$40 was easy, but if you bought at $30, then selling at $35 and watching the run up to $46 would make you feel bad.

 

Hi goldmember,

You can't second guess yourself. You buy you sell, it's a done deal. Move on. Here's a link that folks might find interesting to Max Gunther and the Zurich Axioms.

http://www.sharelynx.com/papers/TheZurichAxioms.php

peace,

rono

 

When people have personal emotions or attachment, or dislike, hate for a stock/commodity, to the extent that it influences their "investment", they do not analyze it in a rational and fiduciary manner. This is true with people, blogs, organizations, etc. IMO.

Jim

 

What people often neglect is that in a "price" such as $46.63/oz, there are two measures. One is the weight of silver, the other is the value of the Dollar. I don't view it as a "price" because that implies the "money" side is stable and the "commodity" being priced is variable. In fact, when talking about precious metals, it would be more accurate (albeit unconventional) to quote it as 0.0214 oz/$, since the silver is the more stable money, and the price trend is that of the paper fiat losing value. The point being that this is essentially a money exchange arbitrage moreso than it is a dollar-denominated investment. So if I exchange silver for dollars, it is not a "sell" on silver, but a "buy" on dollars. So far, I've seen little reason to recommend buying dollars, and I will exchange any dollars I've received e.g. for my labor for silver and silver-denominated investments whenever possible, or dollar-denominated silver-related investments when convenient. I'm also keen to watch the silver:gold arbitrage as well. Really the only thing I want denominated in dollars long-term is my fixed-rate debt. I only build a small pool of dollars for investment when I think it is due for a rally (i.e. when silver pulls back in terms of dollars), and then I take profits in dollars by buying silver as soon as possible.