What is your Sell strategy?

Correct, but if fundamentals of something, (stock, PM, oil), has not changed, reversion to a mean is a powerful force. If a stock is down, I analyze the competitive position, product prospects, etc to see if it is a shift in trending or simply a pricing issue. To me, silver industrial demand has not spiked, if anything it has gone down as witnessed by the large speculative demand that has filled the demand void left by industry. To me, non speculative demand is down, and speculative demand is very fluid and unreliable.

I know what you were saying Jeff, I had just shortened my answer to simplify it. You are right though I should have been clearer.

 

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Yes, especially long term reversion to a mean is meaningless since long term means are reset. I was talking more 3 year timeframe with the exception of silver. I bought mine at $4 since I long term valued it higher based upon inflation. That is about the only long term mean I have eve invested on.

Its a very valid point about humans getting hung up on a number. Too many people think a price cannot go below X or above X. Markets can price anything at any price, there are no limits. That is why I never say silver cannot go above $100, or below $5. They can, though the potential gets lower the further you go away from current pricing. I just know a lot of investors who refused to sell GM below $10 because "it is always worth more than that".

 

I'm almost tempted to say that virtually all markets are rigged these days, and just about every number or statistic published by a corporation, government or NGO is suspect. But I won't.:devil:

 

1. my sell strategy is to sell always sell first the coin doubles (or hoards of it) that have 70-90% silver content.
2. keep those that are still in very fine to mint quality, including those that are 99.99% pure.
3. then i will buy again during a dip a large mixed lot of coins. then sell again when i meet a specific price target or when i need cash *using rules 1-2 above.*


i do this so i can maintain:
1. a very nice numismatic collection that i can sell individually and can act independent of the silver price (and sell higher than spot bullion).
2. savings against inflation with my separate bullion batch
3. insurance/emergency funds

 

That behavior makes you a contrarian, which greatly increases the likelyhood that you will make money in your investments over the long term.
Well done.

 

Nice market summary. Makes total sense to me.

Bluesboy65

 

Interesting. I guess if you are buying dips you are buying based on some sort of technical analysis and an opinion that metals are still moving higher.

Bluesboy65

 

The problem with contrarian investing is that the underlying assumption is that the majority of investors will move in a herd and be wrong. But most of the time, the majority is correct since that is what causes stocks [or other investments] to trend. Contrarians look brilliant at market reversals, but tend to be wrong most of the time. I recall when the market was falling from 14,000 through 13,000, CNBC paraded out a lot of analysts all saying something like "I'm a contrarian so while other investors are selling, I think this is the time to buy." So here we are, years later, and the contrarians are sitting on losses.