Since Heritage lists the graded populations (since 2005, anyway) in their titles, you can follow the populations for NGC and PCGS through the years. I occasionally check to see how fast the populations are increasing mostly just for curiosity. For instance, in 10/05 there were 432 MS-67 1954-S Lincolns. By 10/10, there were 569, but 1/11 there were 1154. That is a 20% increase in 5 years and then a 100% increase in 2 months. On 11/14/10 there were 3136 MS-66's, but there were 7126 11/23/11. That is a 127% increase in 2 weeks. (BTW, there were 2548 in 10/05.) Every population I check for Lincolns is doing the same thing and about the same time. Anyone got any ideas just what is going on here?
Well - I did not know this. I thought some of those numbers changed as more were graded. Also is it possible it was just a mistake in that one auction? Maybe it was just NGC and not NGC+PCGS - something like that.
Dick if you check the populations for lots of coins back over the years you'll find similar increases. Maybe none as dramatic as that last one, but the increases are there all the same. You'll also see that they started about time I have always said that they changed the grading standards. Who knows, maybe they've gotten even looser now.
I checked 70+ (only 2005 and on) and never saw an increase of more than a few at a time. This is every coin, and every grade I have checked from 1930 through 1958. And every one happened late November or December of 2010. NO!!!!!!!!!! This is not your gradeflation. Let me correct that to say every Lincoln.
Then I guess you need to ask Heritage if there is, or was, a glitch in their system that could explain the recent changes you mention. What I do know is this, in all of the coins I have looked at, various denominations, the pop numbers in upper grades increased by far more than a few at a time since about 2006.
From what I can tell, 1927 and later coins increased at that time. 1925 and a few I checked earlier did not increase. And what I said and stand by is that there were no other significant increases at a time. i.e. in a month or even year. Most typically have increased about 20% from 2005 through 2010. Compared to the 100+% increases I am seeing in a month at most, 20% in 5 years is meaningless.
Well considering crackouts/resubmissions I have never worried too much about pop reports. Until TPG can assure people that a coin cannot be resubmitted then what value are they? Scenario: A 66 is worth $100, a 67 $800. A holder of a 66 resubmits 8 times to finally get a 67. According to pop reports that 67 is 8 times rarer than a 66, but in reality is the same dang coin. There should be nothing inferred from this scenario, but people will preach to you about how it shows "condition rarity". These things feed on themselves, always have, so therefor are meaningless to me without knowing resubmits. If the TPGers would put in id technology to verify a coin will only ever be graded ONCE, then I will give a darn.
Well, I was going to take a look at the NGC Census, but the server is down on the Home site (which includes the Census). I even tried a back door, but that didn't work either. NGC added another feature to their stats which allows you to graphically track the pricing history for the last 5 years of any coin. I was curious to see if there was any correlation between values and submissions. Chris
NGC is not working for me either. However, the few that I have checked have no appreciable changes in the Nov/Dec time frame.
What you also have to watch are the value spreads through the grades and the populations overall. If there's a huge jump in the next grade and a small pop, then you know the numbers are inflated with crackouts. Take a coin with little spread through the grades, say, an S-VDB. If I have a bunch of slabbed, say, XF45s, am I going to crack those and resub them in the hopes of making an AU50? No, it's a waste of time and money. Now take a, say, 26-S Buffalo nickel in MS-64..... if it took 20 walkthroughs at $100 a shot to get one in a 65 holder it would be money well spent.
I realize that I am resurrecting an old thread, but now that I have access to NGC populations, I find that Heritage really was misrepresenting the NGC populations, so I wrote them. Here is there response;
I go through "many" Unc rolls of all kinds studying various characteristics and looking for die varieties. At the same time I cherry pick the best examples I can find and set them aside in special storage. Except for a few I find interesting, I don't waste time and money having them graded. I'll leave that for retirement when I have more time...and need the $$$. That's when you'll see the Pop reports go POP, POP, POP! ...(hopefully).
