Buy, Sell or Hold

Oh and BTW, for those not reading the other thread, I found this today and it doesn't really surprise me:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/meet-man-behind-liquidating-hedge-fund-blew-gold-market

peace,

rono

 

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Rono

I am reading much different reports than what you are. One's like Greenspan suggesting that we return to the gold standard and The President of China saying the days of the dollar are over. Our own Sec of Treasury is forecasting disater and the National debt is spiraling out of control. Fix it you say? Well that my friend is just not a possibility. You see even with 100% taxation we simply could not repay the current debt. The USA is in what I think is her darkest hour. Just as Rome tried to police the world, she died.
For me I see it all a little differently. In as little as 3 to 5 yrs we will see the onset on hyper-inflation as predicted by many well known economist's. I see staggering cost's for fuel, medical supplies and food. I see depression like unemployment that will rival the Great Depression. I see turmoil in the streets of the USA as social unrest develops. I see having to go to extreme measures to protect your way of life and what assests you get away with.

I also agree a small plot of land would be essential to grow one's own food. Groups of neighbors forming small social bands and protection groups. I also see China taking over American assets as our dollar is replaced by their curreny as the new World Reserve Currency. As of late you can now open a Chinese Bank Account in NY City as a way of buying and holding their currency. And the largest thing I see is denial by our American population as we can hardly ever think it will happen to us. This by far is the greatest threat, denial.
While I hope it does not unfold this way, I choose to prepare now for what I think will come, to preserve what I can and protect my family.

I do hope you are correct and none of these bad things occur. But I will not hold my breath on that one. The chances and reality of our fiscal crisis is too real to turn the other cheek.

 

Uhhhh.....Help me out here. What does hyper inflation mean? Ok, I'm not a birdbrain or an idiot (my ex wife would argue that point) (Don't even go there), but anyway, trying to learn some things here. Following along on the thread, but sometimes get a little lost. (obviously I was lost when I married her). Anyway...again, what is "hyper inflation"?

 

There's probably a technical definition of hyperinflation but it is generally a very rapid increase in the rate of consumer prices relative to the rate of inflation of other currencies. Germany experienced hyperinflation in the early 1920's and the rate of rising comsumer prices was so high that unless you immediately spent your paycheck, you would not be able to buy the same basket/quantity of goods the following day. In about 1918 an egg cost about 2 German Marks, by about 1923 an egg cost 50,000,000 marks! That's Zimbabwe crazy hyperinflation!

 

My survival pack, quality seeds of all sorts, not from montsanto. SKS sino soviet, arsenal 26, 1k rounds. MSR water purifier, 100+ apple and fruit trees. Chickens and one big ole scottish highlander cow. I still need to stock up on more long lasting food stuffs before it gets pricey. Also I'm stocking up on ciggs, chocolates, and liquor, people always like to trade for these products. Oh, silver and gold as well.

 

Bluesboy65: Thanks for the definition. I can always count on you.

 

I am holding for the present. I see no indicators of improvement that will not be accompanied by large inflation rates here and in Asia. Current financials don't require me to move, so I can sit and watch for awhile. Trading is only a pasttime now, but after seeing that several on line dealers were listing pre 65 Washington quarters as "out of stock" or unavailable" sent me a message.

gary

 

Have the events in Egypt and the potential impacts to stability in that region changed anyones plans for Buy, Sell, Hold?

 

Howdy zep/all,

I can't argue with your view of the situation. As I stated on the other thread, the unfunded liabilities are somewhere betwixt $75T-105T. These are social security, medicare/aid, various trusts, debt service, etc. There is no combination of tax increases nor benefit reductions that will come close to paying this tab. From what I've read, they figure they need to monetize a goodly part of it by buying debt [read: quantitative easing [[really read: debasing the dollar]]. Estimates are they they need to halve the value of the dollar over the next decade (e.g. the dollar has lost 96% of its value since the Fed was created in 1913). Now I can understand this being the plan. The nut question is: Can they do it without causing the dollar to crash resulting in hyper inflation [read: I've always heard it described as triple digits or worse]. Cripes, I don't know. We know that the chinese and OPEC own too many dollars and too much of our debt to want it to puke. Not in their self-interest. That said, I think it's a given that the world is trying to figure out a way to stop using the dollar as the reserve currency. Head of the IMF wants a market basket including gold. Lot's of others are saying the same thing. I think we'll end up with a mix of 4-5 currencies and gold as the basis.

As for my country. Things are bad and getting worse in many ways. What's happening in Egypt is telling. 40% of the pop in poverty. Soaring unemployment. Distribution of wealth bad and getting worse as the super rich control the gov't. Middle class being destroyed. duh, remind you of somewhere near and dear?

Nopers, I'm on board with you and preparing for the worse while hoping for the best.

peace,

rono

 

In these end of the world scenarios, people usually repeat things without updating information or references. This tends to impress like believers, but doesn't present the actual truth. For instance concerning the IMF, in 2009, the idea of adding commodities, gold, the yuan, and ruble to the basket was considered by some.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=14461

However, in the following year, almost every major country has had financial troubles and the prices of commodities have increased, and this affects each country. Countries that have oil, tend not to have grain. Those with copper tend not to have soybeans, etc. So the USD tended not to look so bad. China's mask slipped a little as their control of the yuan to limit internal commodity inflation ( mainly food) was exposed.

On 12/31/2010, the IMF increased the USD percentage from 41.9% to 66.0% in the basket, so this is an indication of greater stability worldwide. The Pound stayed about the same, the Euro and Yen were decreased. Gold, ruble and yuan were not mentioned. The US however, backs the idea of the Yuan in the basket, as long as it is not internally controlled, which obviously China doesn't agree.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Drawing_Rights

http://www.investorsiraq.com/showth...New-Currency-Amounts-for-SDR-Valuation-Basket


I have no difficulty for those who have determined personally that their fears are logical , and my point isn't to be argumentative. There are many new visitors who read these popular thread and believe also without researching. The world has changed since 2009. Then, the other countries were thought to be superior financially to the US, now, we know that isn't true. Perhaps the whole world is in a big mess, but things are better than 2008 & 2009. In my mind if every person on earth could be freely polled as to where they would rather be a citizen, the US would win hands down. JMHO.

Jim

 

Desertgem

Everyone is entitled to their opinion and you are no exception. I have expressed mine.
The above mentioned poll you present has a valid point to it about the USA. The one thing that this Country has not "yet" experienced in modern times is large scale crisis to the proportion that it's people were willing to leave it.
It is very easy to to conduct searches today that lead to options of retiring outside of this Counrty for living conditions that offer modest economic impact compared to that of the USA. In my heart of hearts that vein of denial thats has me think that this simply just cant happen to us is a deep rooted belief in the heart and minds of millions of Americans. On the opposite side of your remarks, what do you think led people to immigrate to the United States? Yes indeed it was opportunity! We American have openly shared and given away that opportunity to it's full potential.
If the United States of America falls as Rome did and the Nations before it, immigration may very well take place on the order of the "next opportunity". People will perform actions of desparation when desparate times fall upon them. I know I must sound like a doom's day'er, it brings great sadness to my American heart that "We the People", let our elected Gov run us into debt situations that can not be remedied.
It is my sincere hope that this does not play out the way it is forecasted to. I Love our Country and will fight to the bitter end to preserve it.

Many thanks for your positive attitude and post's. I admire your American dedication and Pride in Country. I share it to, too a certain extent.
It is not how it once was nor will it be again in the mid-term future.

 

As has been stated again and again, PM's are insurance. When things go south, people think about insurance on an elevated scale. Certainly burning tires, buildings and widespread looting televised throughout the world make people think more about socio-economic collapse, hence the "survival mode" mentality kicks in. I admit that is one reason I am not selling. I don't think now is the time to replace my Silver with currency. Now, at $40, I will take another look. lol But a US Silver coin will always keep abreast of inflation and a dollar bill may not. IMHO

gary

 

Thank you for presenting the facts. There are too many internet authors making money from folks with their end of the world articles. I particularly worry about some of the younger folks who don't realize that this scam has been going on for decades.

 

Cloudsweeper

I do not think age of the person has too much to do with it. I would more so think think that education level and a understanding of ecnomics, political, and the abilty to understand such information will guide a person to make the best decisions for themselves. I myself have passed the mid 50's point in my lifetime. I am college educated to a level of Masters Degree. I am also not worried about the younger generation understanding what is at hand. There is no single person in this world that has ever been able to influence an entire population on political or social personal analysis of such systems to lead every horse to the same trough. It is simply impossible. That is why the word "denial" run's so deep in all of the World's languages.
I appreciate your post's and view points. I am sure they are valid to you in your own mind. That is the one thing that makes this freedom we have so great.

 

I have a little to input here. I invest in PM to help balance my portfolio, not as much as some people think you should. What I see right now the stock market presently is a buyers market! When the economy turns for the better, there are already some signs that the recession is starting to level off, the market will make a drastic upturn. Basically it is like spending 2000 money in a 2011 market, I'm making constant contributions to some mutual funds that have been performing fair even in this down market we are seeing. If a true doomsday is around the corner we are all screwed anyway so none of this matters. I agree that having hard assets ie. PM laying around is good, but if everything goes sour so will the money the bullion is worth.

 

Elapid

As a general statement for you, the U.S. Dollar is used and held by more Countries than just the U.S.A.
As the Worlds Reserve Currency it's status reigns supreme. If and when the crisis comes into play, huge amounts of US Dollars will be exchanged for the New World Reserve Currency (what ever it is). This will be the onset of mind blowing inflation when the dollar falls from grace. Please understand that markets have been and still are manipulated to present some fashion of stability to avoid wide spread panic. Right now there are people buying into the Chinese Currency.
If it does become the new World Reserve Currency, it's strength will make it the currency to hold and trade. Imagine if you will, the fall of the Dollar and the Countries economies in the world that are tied to it. The domino effect of failing economies throught the World would have a destructive impact and it's value would sour immediately.

 

RONO & ZEPLYN: Love you guys!!!!

 

I bullish on metals until such time as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates AND the reason that they do it is as a hedge against inflation as opposed to because the dollar is at risk of losing its place in the global market. Otherwise quantitative easing will ensure that all commodities continue to rise. According to mineweb.com the only reason gold is down as far as it is is because of massive selling. Most of the factors that caused gold to rise are still in play. The Fed intends for QE2 to reach fruition, so I am waiting until they definitively say no to QE3 before I'm thinking about selling. However, it is worth considering that both Chinese and Indian central banks have raised interest rates, so that will have some impact globally, but as long as new money is being printed the value should go up.
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=119441&sn=Detail&pid=102055

 

Good posting. With regard to your quote, the Fed does not hedge against inflation but is a central bank that controls monitary policy by regulating banking and providing financial stability (money supply fed funds rate etc.). The Fed desires some degree of inflation for reasons I have stated in prior posts.

Regards,

Bluesboy65

 

Am feeling that whatever happens with the Yaun is more important of an influence than the dollar from now on. IMHO