Silver May Drop 20% as Coins Signal ‘Crowd’

I believe silver will bounce around a little for a couple of weeks, then start moving up again. IMO.

 

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The article is bunk. They've been arguing for years that gold has been "crowded" and it just keeps chugging along after every pull-back. A slight pullback at this level is expected as the speculators looking to make a quick buck cash in, but the fundamentals of the economy (in the US and abroad) leaves the US dollar ripe for inflation and will be a market force that will keep silver bullish for the foreseaable future IMO.

 

I totally agree.

 

very true but also didn't we have a housing bubble and the economy take a nosedive? how much did the stock market crash by?

 

I believe that silver with hit $50 an ounce this year due to alot of variables (insert 2-3 paragraphs stating my point based on "facts")




I believe that silver will hit $20 an ounce or lower this year due to alot of variables (insert 2-3 paragraphs stating my point based on "facts")

 

Could do both. Would be nice to know which was going to happen first.

 

Cloud, being "correct" everywhere in between? You really believe that? Do you think dot com investors were "correct in 1998? Housing speculators were "correct" in 2005, but both of these groups were simply "incorrect" a year or two later? "Correct" implies valid pricing long term, and these groups were not. They are always "correct" BEFORE a correction BECAUSE they are moving it still higher by their own buying, but that does not make 1998 dot com valuations or 2005 housing valuations "correct". By your logic the market is always the right price UNTIL it busts. What is the correct pricing on PM's now? I don't know, but I suspect around $18 for silver based upon historical pricing versus inflation. Can it move up? Of course, price is a man made number. I just chafe at the idea that a market sentiment is correct until the very top or bottom. If something, (anything), historically is worth $100, then market participants are not correct from $100 up to $1000, and simply incorrect at $1100, they were wrong all of the way from $100 up, they just didn't know it, and many can make money on the "greater fool theory". THe dot com era is ample proof of that.

Chris

 

I want to be right and I just figure if I say that...I gotta be right "somehow"... maybe based on my last post I should try to write some internet blog about silver and gather a bunch of readers around me thinking I know "alot" about pms... course that's assuming I want to waste a bunch of time and any other else's time that bothers to read it...

if I were to start said blog I would probably go with something that seems hot like politics...

here's an example of how a blogger can make an article interactive with the readers...

(1st choose one of the following people or heck 2 or 3 or all or add to the people I've already listed
President Obama
Speaker Boehner
Harry Reed or
Nancy Pelosi or (insert your own politician)
then...
2. (insert said problem that said person is at fault for)
and
then you have the reason as to why silver is going up or down or sideways or a 3D direction... trust me I know of such things...)

if you add politics to any problem you can't be wrong...you just look like you know more then the other people involved...

 

First of all, reread what I wrote. I said a "traders mentality." This has nothing to do with long term investing, value investing, and illiquid investments such as real estate. It's a different game with a different mindset. A trader who owned dot-coms in 1998 did exactly the right thing and made a significant amount of money afterward. Since good trading always implies the use of loss controls, most got out with most of their gains. It was the investors, especially those buying the dips, who took a beating. But you missed the most important point. Contrarians often miss the point that it is the moves of the majority that drive prices. I saw CNBC parade a host of professionals on air after the DJIA fell from 14,000 to 12,000. All of them were bullish because the majority were bearish. Well, the majority turned out to be correct all the way down. The point is that contrarians are only correct at the EXTREME of market moves, up or down, and are wrong the rest of the way.

I was a diehard value investor for most of my life. After the 2000 tech stock crash, I reveiwed what had just happened. While you are correct that most people learned that it doesn't pay to invest in a bubble, I learned just the opposite -- that tremendous amounts of money can be made in bull markets even if the underlying asset is overpriced. But this technique also requires strict loss-control rules. Since then I've added some simple trend following methods to my other investing techniques [although not usually for the same investments] and I've been happy with the results. I've even modified my former value investment methods to make them more "mechanical," which seems better suited to 21st century markets.

Anyway, that's my story. It might not work in theory, so you can't teach it to your students, but it works in practice.

 

Cloud, you are completely correct, (or at least I completely agree with you), concerning your last post. In a traders mentality, "going with the flow" is how to maximize profits. I was reading your previous post meaning that the long term value of an item changed because of traders current mentality of an item. Sorry that I misread what you were trying to relate.

 

That's okay. My natural inclination is to try to figure out the approximate value for something and buy it when the price is much lower. For silver, my estimate is $20. But never bet against the power of the market.