2011 GOLD high $1,500.00, SILVER high $24.00

Were I to start a 'new guess the future PM price thread', it would only based on a guess. Probably requires someone else to start that new thread..someone with a good reason for their guess! I imagine what you're saying is this thread might be dead now, hmmm?

Regards

 

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Implying at this pace the entire thread title will be obsolete and we may need a new thread for people to make guesses in 2011 and for beyond, be they high or low prices guesses.

 

Perhaps you would start that thread on December 31 or sooner? Maybe?

 

Currently: (11:50-ish)
Gold: 1418.00
Silver: 30.86
Platinum: 1759.00
Palladium: 798.00

Posting perhaps for posterity.. I really believed these #'s would be going down, not up, for the year end, because of the changing tax rates...
What an interesting ride.

Since it seems we need a new thread, I'll wish myself a Happy New Year and anyone else who may stumble on this one, while waiting/looking for another. Go, gold, go!!
Lucy

 

PM's ending the year on a high note! I've read that next year will be very volatile with violent swings.....we shall see.....

 

the other day I was at a shop, a person came in looking for junk silver the owner quoted him 22 times face, the guy said how many half dollars for 100$, the owner said 5 for 110, the buyer said, that he would be right back, asked where the nearest atm was at, when he walked out the door I said, wow silver is really shooting up, he admitted it was, I said for sure because he was about to charge that guy 44 times face for silver, he redid the math on his calculator, the man came in and had 220 dollars and announced he wanted 10 of those half dollars, the owner told him that he had made a misstake in callating the figure so he got 20 for the price.

but see here, people have few clues, obviously that guy had been sold on silver, but as far as wether he got 10 or 20 for the price he did not know, wether a half dollar had a quarter ounce or a tenth ounce or .361 ounces he did not know, wether 22 times face meant a half dollar for 22 dollars or a half dollar for 11 dollars he did not know, all he knew was he was gonna buy some silver, which he did, but he almost put himself in a hole where he would have to be awful lucky to make out on the purchase

 

What a story.

Look, I think it's smart to get some physical PM's, but at least educate yourself and make sure you are paying decent price. Don't just pay whatever is asking price just to get some silver in your hands....

This guy sounded like he just wanted to have silver no matter the cost.....

 

All speculation who really knows... we can hope!

 

Currently in UK/EU markets.

Gold $1374.90/oz.
Silver $29.20/oz.

US market opening in under 5 minutes...


Just thinking aloud since my crystal ball is still in the shop...

While PMs have been taking a little break in these first few days of 2011, something that concerns me about physical silver is the perceived confidence trending toward $50/oz.

It appears that many people bias toward silver continually moving toward that level from where we are now. There seems to be a lot of support (confidence) amongst the public that that level is attainable. I don't doubt at all that we can see silver strong at $50/oz. some time in the next +1 year or so, but I wonder will memories or associations to the 1979/80 run up be the point where the small independent people start dumping en mass because that is where they draw the line, where their confidence runs out, and judge silver, 'as good as it gets'?

I am curious of what will happen approaching $50 and if/when silver holds in that territory for a while what volatility will be like. Will there be deals? Greedy sellers firm and determined to achieve that $50/oz. figure for peace of mind? How will the landscape look if there is more supply than buying demand and if $50/oz. (or anything shy of that) may actually be a bargain or time to hold rather than sell?

With December jobs reports looking positive this morning, we may see metals continuing on the soft side again this week.

 

There's a saying among speculators that goes, "Buy it when nobody wants it and sell it when everybody wants it." It has been true in housing and various stock sectors. Why would the same not be true in the precious metals arena? Another indicator that is used is when magazine covers begin highlighting how good something is or how bad something is. When that kind of public awareness occurs, it's supposedly time to do the opposite.

As a collector, the price of silver doesn't mean all that much to me because I want a particular coin for what it is and I plan on keeping it. If a was a so-called "investor", I might seriously reflect upon the above-mentioned indicators. We humans often have short-term memory syndrome and tell ourselves, "Yeah. That was last time, but this time it's different." Even though our common sense circuit is telling us to take heed.

 

Good posts guys.

It does seem to be on the diving side right now. As for silver at $50, I think as long as all of my purchases have been half that price or lower, I wouldn't be so concerned about the volatility unless it goes back into the teens.....

If I am expecting $50 and I don't see a reason why it can't get up there (no matter what the funadamental reasons are) the question then is do I offload and wait to buy on the dip or will it never go below $50 again?

Are there people out there right now that sold their silver at $10 when they bought at $5 and now are completely caught out of position?

 

I am sure there are, but you have to ask what they bought with that $10. Money is not stationary. I sold some things a couple of years ago to invest in stocks when they got hammered. I would say I have made more on them than anyone has in physical metals in the last couple years.

Overall nice posts here lately. I agree to be looking over your shoulder. I am just saying the most reliable indicator of a market is the INVERSE of retail sentiment. If everyone is negative or no opinion on an asset, then that is very bullish long term. That is where silver was 18 years ago when I bought tons at $4. In 1979-1980 most investors were very bullish on silver, then it collapsed. I am not saying when this could happen, I am just pointing out that for every market, (stocks, PM, housing, etc), the opposite of what the general public thinks is usually the best play long term unless you want to "play the game" and ride the asset up and think you are smart enough to get off before the train stops.

Again, silver could go to $50, it could slide right now down to $15, I am not saying when it could happen, just hearing all of the news about how great silver is makes me extremely nervous for the market.

 

Well, other than some commercials and lots of youtube "economists", MSM doesn't really seem to be on the PM bandwagon. Yes, they will report when gold goes up, for a couple of minutes but it's just not the story of the day. I suppose, perhaps since most of their news is about Wall St., PM's other than ETF's doesn't jive with the MSM?

My question about the 1980's was, was MSM the same way? Or were they all on board the silver train? I was too young to pay attention back then. But it would be nice if someone who did, could compare MSM of yesteryears to today in regards to PM's.

I do agree with you about stocks. You see, if I've invested the same amount I did with PM's into Ford stocks when Ford was around $3 in 2009, or maybe it was even less? Anyways, I'd be very very well off right now....

Are copper ETF's the way to go now?

 

I suppose I was trying to suggest-- will people's own psychology tell them to sell at $50 as the market beyond that is totally unknown territory to them (not that all physical holders knew it back in the classic $50 peak/spike time), and will even $50/oz. be a bargain, a time to hold and accumulate, for investors. Will the past spike peak at that general figure be the signal to sell for many small investors geared up by media headlines, but also be a sign of weakness to those investors buying and able to take an opportunity in a potentially bumpy price range where there may appear more sellers than there are currently. Will those sellers be ready or willing to sell their fear and investors there to buy it up? Will $50/oz. actually be the wrong time to sell, but a good time to buy? This is entirely theoretical and speaking devoid of unknown crisis type factors and other market manipulation beyond most anyone's control... I'm just kicking around the notion so to say.

 

They do seem to be garnering attention. There are new ETFs this year in the US and speculation about metal hoarding out of the UK. Could be worth riding for a little while.

 

Maybe not change the thread yet, who knows how much Silver is going to fall ? It's taking a nosedive right now for sure.

 

Any of those cases could be true. I mean we are all really shooting in the dark. Yeah, you have some knowledgeable guys around here but as accurate as they can be, there's also the manipulation side that is probably the biggest variable and "enemy" to fundamentals.

So say there's rumors an auto company is going out of business and fundamentally you sell your stocks. Why would anyone want to hold? Then you wake up, and our gov't decides to bail them out and stocks soar! I mean, WTF is that all about then?

Or let's say you buy stocks at $1 because as long as it goes to $2, you've doubled your investment! But then it dips below $1 for a couple of months, and they get delisted!

We could think of $50 being the peak, just like someone probably thought gold at $500 was the peak when they bought at $250.

I think I've mentioned this before too is, they say don't put all your eggs in one basket. But anyone that is holding nothing but USD's is doing just that! And if they are earning 1% or less at their bank, they are going negative due to inflation. There's really no sure place to put your money these days!

 

I think I have renewed my thoughts that silver will be better than gold again this year. Not sure by any percentages, but it was a decent call last year after gold did so well in 2009. Palladium could be a tough bullet to take if it continues and tanks. It's rise has kind of scared me away from it entirely, save for a potential numismatic release from the US Mint. Platinum I'm not into at all on the physical side.

 

Agree on Platinum, haven't looked or focused on it at all....

Palladium, just because I've been waiting for the coin, and it's going to be based on the mercury dime design, I just have to get some. At least one. I think it is going to be a beautiful coin. If I take a loss on it, that's fine. It'll be just like buying any other computer that I buy that loses 80% of it's value within 1-2 years! LOL....

 

LOL! Very true.